The latest battleground polls reveal a tight race in all states that Trump must win to win re-election, including showing a very close race in Minnesota. Anyone who thinks Trump is out of this election is NOT paying attention to the battleground state polling.

This is the exact pattern we saw last time, polls showing big national leads for the Democrat drown out state polling showing a close race. As I have demonstrated, the national polls showing Biden up big nationally are deliberately manufactured, using voter turnout assumptions that have not manifested in thirty years, designed to inflate Biden's lead. Read, How Big Biden Poll Leads are Manufactured.

Morning Consult does show a few bigger leads for Biden. They show him up 7 in Arizona, 10 in Michigan and 7 in Pennsylvania. But remember, this poll tends to favor Democrats with its turnout assumptions. They have shown Biden up in Arizona and Florida since early June, before the Covid-19 spike, and that's a real stretch.

They also show Biden up in Texas, which requires an assumption that roughly equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats turn out to vote in the lone star state. Texas may be more Democratic than it has been in the past, but it's not equal yet. It was R+9 last time and should be at least R+5 this time.