218 NEEDED FOR CONTROL 222 1 212 Solid Dem Lean Dem Toss Up Lean GOP Solid GOP 210 12   25 187 *See Our Seat-by-Seat Analysis* Lean Dem   Toss UP   Lean GOP TX-23, IL-14, ME-2, TX-7   CA-39, IA-1, GA-7, MI-8, MI-11, MN-2, NY-19, UT-4, PA-7   IL-13, MI-3, NJ-3, NY-1, PA-1, SC-1, VA-2, CA-25, IA-3, NE-2, NY-2, OK-5, PA-10, TX-22, CA-21, GA-6, IA-2, MN-7, NM-2, NY-22, TX-10, TX-24, VA-7, FL-26 GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL VOTE The generic congressional vote number has limited utility. One point of value, however, comes in that it demonstrates where the parties stand in relation to the presidential race. It helps us understand how many Republicans, for example, who do not like Trump will still vote Republican down ticket. This particular dynamic should loom large this cycle. Straight Poll Averages Dems +5.0 (48.0-43.0) Freedom Window Projection Dems +2.1 (46.0-43.9) Pollsters' Averages Chart Political Ref's Averages Chart Click here to see our voter turnout assumptions LATEST POLLS Poll Date Sample Party Distribution Dem GOP Pollster Avg Ref's Avg Monmouth Univ 9/24-9/27 809RV 29R/36I/35D 50 43 x   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+6 sample oversamples Dems. Will adjust to D+1, or 33D/32I/32R. Voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. The Dems had a +6 partisan advantage and leads by 7, so they must have done slightly better with I's and R's than the GOP did with I's and D's. Assuming each party won its voters 90-5 and I's voted 48-45 for D's, the Dem's receive 46.7 and the GOP receives 44.9. 46.7 44.9   x McLaughlin & Assoc 9/23-9/27 1000LV 36D/31I/33R 48 46 x   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included   x YouGov 9/20-9/22 1124LV 1121LV; 1279RV - 39D/34I/28R 47 43 x   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The RV sample of D+11 oversampled Democrats. Will adjust to D+1, or 33D/32I/32R. According to the poll data, Dems won D's 94-1, the GOP won I's 40-30 and R's 92-3. Applying these ratios to the more likely turnout, Dem's receive 41.6 to GOP 42.6. 41.6 42.6   x NBC/WSJ 9/13-9/16 1000RV 44D/11/39R 49 42 x   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+5 leaners sample oversamples Dems and Dem leaners. Adjusting to D+1, or 42D/16I/41R. Voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Dems had a 5-point turnout advantage and a 7-point lead, suggesting D's did a little better with I's than R's (2 points). Assuming each party won its voters 90-5 and D's won I's 8-6 (points). After applying these voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Dems receive 47.9 to GOP 45.0. 47.9 45.0   x RMG Research 9/10-9/12 941LV Party distribution not provided 46 41 x     According to the poll data, D's won Dems 90-4, I's 36-31 and GOP won R's 86-7. No adjustment necessary. Included     Monmouth Univ 9/3-9/8 758LV For RV - 32D/39I/29R 49 45 Repeat   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution is not provided for likely voters. Voter ratios are not provided. Excluded   Repeat YouGov 9/6-9/8 1057LV 39D/35I/27R 48 41 Repeat   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution is for registered votes, but the result is the same for RV and LV, so it will be applied to LV. That D+12 sample oversamples Dems. Will adjust to 36D/31I/33R. Dems won D's 95-2, GOP won I's 34-31 and GOP won R's 89-4. Adjusted result is Dem 45.1 to GOP 40.6. 45.1 40.6   Repeat Suffolk Univ 8/28- 8/31 1000RV 35D/27I/32R 48 42 >1month   Political Ref's Take on the above poll Party distribution is reasonable, but this is a registered voter poll. A registered voter poll will be applied. Biden adjusts to 31 to Trump 29.3. Applying the 31/29.3 to the 90% who chose either D's or R's, Dems receive 46.3 to GOP 43.7. 46.3 43.7   >1month Selzer & Co. 8/26-8/30 827LV 35D/25/34R 48 42 >1month   Political Ref's Take on the above poll Party distribution looks reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included   >1month McLaughlin & Assoc 8/22-8/26 1000LV 36D/31I/33R 47 46 >1month   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution looks good. No adjustment necessary Included   >1month YouGov 8/21-8/23 904RV 42D/25I/28R 50 39 Repeat   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+14 sample far oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to the much more likely 36D/31I/33R voter turnout assumption. Will also apply a registered voter screen to the Independent column as many Independents will not vote who are included in this sample. According to the poll data, Dems won D's 93-2, I's 44-35 and the GOP won R's 91-2. Adjusting the I column to 27-22.3 due to a registered voter screen. Apply the voter ratios to the more likely voter turnout, Dems receive 42.5 to GOP 37.6. 42.5 37.6   Repeat NBC/WSJ 8/9-8/12 900RV 42D/13I/38R 47 42 >1month   Political Ref's Take on the above poll Party distribution looks good. No adjustment necessary. Included   >1month Marist College 8/3-8/11 1118RV 32D/37I/30R 49 43 >1month   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution seems reasonable, but this is a registered voter poll. Will apply the registered voter screen. Dems lose 17 and GOP loses 12.7, resulting in a 32 to 30.3 ratio. Applying the 32/30.3 ratio to the 92% of respondents who chose one of the parties, the result is Dems 47.3 to GOP 44.7. 47.3 44.7   >1month YouGov 8/9-811 1204RV 42D/33I/25R 49 39 >1month   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+17 sample heavily oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to the much more likely 36D/31I/33R voter turnout assumption. According to the poll data, Dems won D's 93-4, I's split 35 for D's and 32 for R, and the GOP won R's 90-5. Applying these ratios to the more likely voter turnout, Dems receive 46.0 to GOP 41.1. It is important to remember that this is a registered voter poll, which include many registered voters who will not vote, and those non-voters tend to lean Democratic, so the margin is likely closer than even this adjusted result. 46.0 41.1   >1month Battleground 8/1-8/6 1000LV 42D/20I/38R 50 44 >1month   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution looks reasonable and a likely voter screen was applied. No adjustment necessary. Included   >1month YouGov 7/28-7/30 1086RV 41/D/25I/28R 49 39 Repeat   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+13 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to the much more likely 36D/31I/33R. Dems won D's 92-4, GOP won I's 41-36 and R's 91-2. Applying these voter ratios to the much more likely voter turnout, Dems receive 44.9 to GOP 46.2. 44.9 46.2   Repeat Ipsos 7/27-7/28 947RV 48D/8I/40R 47 39 >1month   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+8 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to the much more likely D+3 we saw in 2016, or 36D/31I/33R. According to the poll data, Dems won D's 89-4, GOP won I's 28-26 and R's 86-4. Applying these ratios to the more likely turnout and then extrapolating that ratio to the 86% of respondents who chose either Republicans or Democrats, Dems receive 44.8 to GOP 41.4. 44.8 41.4   >1month YouGov 7/26-7/28 1255RV 38D/37I/25R 48 40 Repeat   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+13 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to the much more likely D+3 or 36D/31I/33R. Dems won D's 93-4, I's split 35 for Dems to 36 for GOP, GOP won R's 93-4. Applying these ratios to the much more likely vote turnout, Dems receive 45.6 to GOP 43.3. 45.6 43.3   Repeat Optimus 7/24-7/28 914LV 35D/36.3I/28.5R 45 38 >1month   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+6.5 over R's and I+7.8 over R's oversamples Democrats and Independents. Adjusting to the much more likely 36D/31I/33R. Dems won D's 85.7-3.4, I's split 18.4 for Dems to 16.4 for the GOP, and the GOP won R's 79.7-5.2. Applying these voter ratios to the much more likely voter turnout, Dems receive 37.7 to GOP 33.2. Applying the 37.7/33.2 ratio to the 83% of respondents who chose a party, Dems receive 44.1 to GOP 38.9. 44.1 38.9   >1month YouGov 7/19-7/21 1219RV 39D/36I/27R 47 40 Repeat   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+12 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to the much more likely D+3, 36D/31I/33R. According to the poll data, Dems won D's 94-4, I's split 32 for Dems and 35 for GOP, and GOP won R's 90-4. Reallocating the voter ratios to the more likely voter turnout, Dems receive 45.1 to GOP 42.0. 45.1 42.0   Repeat YouGov 7/12-7/14 1247RV 39.1D/34.8I/26.1R 48 40 Repeat   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+13 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to the much more likely D+3, 36D/31I/33R. According to the poll data, Dems won D's 94-4, I's 39-31 and the GOP won R's 91-4. Reallocating the voter ratios to the more likely voter turnout, Dems receive 47.3 to GOP 40.8. 47.3 40.8   Repeat NBC/WSJ 7/9-7/12 900RV 43D/11I/36R 47 43 >1month     The D+7 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to the much more likely D+3, 41D/11I/38R. Voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Dems had a +7 voter turnout assumption advantage but lead by 4, suggesting Republicans did about 3 points better with Independents and Democrats than Democrats did with Republicans and Independents. If the Democrats have a 3-point turnout advantage and Republicans gain 3 points with Independents and by doing better with the parties than Dems did, the race evens to a tie, 45-45. 45 45   >1month YouGov 7/5-7/7 1156RV 42.8D/32.4I/24.7R 51 40 Repeat   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+18.1 voter sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to the more likely 36D/31I/33R voter turnout. According to to the poll data, Dems won D's 95-2, I's split 38 for Dems and 36 for GOP, the GOP won R's 96-1. Reallocating to the more likely voter turnout, Dems receive 46.3 to GOP 43.6. 46.3 43.6   Repeat YouGov 6/28-6/30 1198RV 44D/31I/25R 49 40 Repeat   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+19 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting the party distribution to the more likely 36D/31I/33R. According to the poll data, Dems won D's 93-4, I's split 34-34 and the GOP won R's 95-2. Reallocating the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Dems receive 44.7 to GOP 43.3. 44.7 43.3   Repeat Optimus 6/23-6/27 903LV 35D/36.3I/28.5R 43.2 39.7 Repeat   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+6.5 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting the party distribution to the more likely 36D/31I/33R. According to the poll data, D's won Dems 83.4-3.4, I's split at 21.6 D to 19.0 R, R's won GOP voters 83.6-4.3. Reallocating the vote ratio to the more likely voter turnout, Dems receive 38.1 to GOP's 34.7. Extrapolating that 38.1/34.7 ratio to the 82.9% of the voters who chose Democrats or Republicans in this poll, final adjusted result is very close to the poll result, Dems 43.4 to GOP 39.5. 43.4 39.5   Repeat YouGov 6/21-6/23 1222RV 38.8D/33.8I/27.4R 48 41 Repeat   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The +11.4 D sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting the party distribution to the more likely 36D/31I/33R. According to the poll data, Dem's won D's 91-5, I's 41-31 and the GOP won R's 92-4. Allocating these ratios to the more likely party distribution of 36D/31I/33R, we find Democrats win 46.8 to GOP 41.6. 46.8 41.6   Repeat PPP 6/19-6/20 1013RV 43D/24I/33R 52 41 >1 Month   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+10 sample oversamples Democrats. A D+3 is more likely. This is a rare instance where an adjustment is possible with the ratios of how each party is voting. Allocating the party distribution to 36D/31I/33R, Dems lose 6.5 from the 7 deducted from the D column. The D/R ratio isn't provided, but it looks like Independents split fairly evenly here considering it was a +10 D sample and +11 D final result. Adjusted result, Dems 45.5, GOP 41.0 45.5 41.0   >1 Month Optimus 6/9-6/16 686LV 35D/36.3I/28.5R 45 39 Repeat   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+6.5 sample oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to the more likely 36D/31I/33R turnout. According to the poll data, Dem's won D's 80-5.2, I's 23.2-16.6 and the GOP won R's 85.5-5.4. Allocating those ratios to the more likely turnout of 36D/31I/33R results in Dems receiving 37.8 to GOP 35.2. The remainder in this poll said they would not vote. Allocating the 37.8/35.2 ratio to the 94% of the electorate voting Biden/Trump in this poll results in Biden 48.4 to Trump 45.6. This is a likely voter poll so no registered voter screen is necessary. 48.4 45.6   Repeat YouGov 6/14-6/16 1153RV 39.5D/33.3I/27R 49 40 Repeat   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+9 sample is too high of an estimation of Dem turnout. Will reallocate the partisan vote on at 2016 party distribution of 36D/31I/33R. According to this poll's data, D's voted 97-2 for D, I's voted 34-33 for R, R's voted 94-3 for R. The adjusted result is 46.5 Dems to 42.3 GOP. 46.5 42.3   Repeat Optimus 6/6-6/13 742LV 35D/36.3I/28.5R 46.7 38.5 Repeat   Political Ref's Take on the above poll This is a D+6.5 sample, too high on the Dem side. Adjusting to D+3 2016 voter distribution, 36D/31I/33R. According to the data, D's voted 82-4.5 for D, I's voted 25-16 for D, R's voted 85.5-5.3 for R. Adjusted result, Dem 39 to GOP 35. 39 35   Repeat YouGov 7/7-7/9 1241RV 42.4D/33.4I/24.1R 47 39 Repeat   Political Ref's Take on the above poll This poll has a D+18.3 sample. I try not to correct a sample by more than 6 percentage points, but in this case, I will adjust by 10%. Adjusting the sample to a still unrealistic D+8 sample, we get the following distribution. 34.4D/41.1I/26.4R. Democrats lose 10 from the change to the D column but add 3.9 from the 7.7 added to the I column. Republicans gain 2.3 from the D column and 3.8 from the 7.7 added to the I column. Adjusted result, Dems 40.9, GOP 45.1. 40.9 45.1   Repeat YouGov 5/31-6/2 1244RV 39.2D/32.9I/27.8R 46 40 Repeat   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+11.4 sample is clearly wrong. Adjusting to D+5, which is almost twice the advantage Dems had in 2016. Adjusted result, D33/39I/28R. Dems lose 6.4 but gain back 3.4 from the 6.4 added to I. GOP gains 3 from the 6.4 added to I. Adjusted result, Dems 43, GOP 43. 43 43   Repeat Monmouth Univ 5/28-6/1 742RV 33D/38I/29R 52 43 >1month   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+4 sample is reasonable. The high number of Independents along with a big lead for Democrats suggests that there are a large number of unlikely voters included in this sample, which gives the Dems a big bump. This is true because Independents are going heavily for Democrats in this poll. Of course this can happen in the normal course of things, but it is out of sync with the other polls of independents at this time. If the pollster does not ask which way Independents lean, it's very had to adjust for this. The lean question forces respondents to indicate if they are more affiliated with Democrats or Republicans on average. Independents who lean Democratic turn out to vote less than Independents who lean Republican. An adjustment is necessary, but impossible due to insufficient data. Adjustment necessary, but not possible   Excluded Optimus 5/23-5/30 789LV 35D/36.3I/28.5R 46 37 Repeat   Political Ref's Take on the above poll This poll has a D+6.5% sample. It is possible for Democrats to hit this advantage, but unlikely. It will more likely be in the neighborhood of +3. But this is a likely voter poll and it's fairly reasonable partisan distribution, although it is about as high as it could reasonably get on the Dem side. I would adjust to D+5 if it were a registered voter poll instead of a likely voter poll. No adjustment necessary. No adjustment necessary   Repeat YouGov 5/23-5/26 1157RV 35.8D/37.8I/26.3R 47 39 Repeat   Political Ref's Take on the above poll This poll is not as bad as the last YouGov in terms of Democratic imbalance, but it's still a D+9.5, so it is a Dem oversample. Adjusting D+9.5 to D+6, halfway to the 2016 D+3, deducts 3.5 from Dems. I am not adding it to the I column because that would put I's over 40. Adjusted result is 43.5 Dem, 39 GOP. 43.5 39   Repeat McLaughlin & Assoc 5/21-5/26 1000LV 36D/31I/33R 47 46 > 1month   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The partisan distribution matches 2016 exit polls. No adjustment necessary. No adjustment necessary   >1 month YouGov 5/17-5/19 1235RV 40.2D/32.2I/27.5R 47 38 Repeat   Political Ref's Take on the above poll YouGov reveals the party ID of their poll in raw numbers. This is a heavily biased poll towards Dems, D+12.7. At most, Democrats will have a +6% advantage, which is quite unlikely. It will probably be around +3 Dem. But to be as fair as possible, assuming Dems have a +6 turnout advantage. New distribution is 33.5D/39I/27.5R. Dems lose 6.7 but gain back 3.7 from the 6.7 added to the I column. GOP gains 3 from the 6.7 added to the I column. Adjusted result, Dems 44, GOP 41. 44 41   Repeat Firehouse Strategies 5/9-5/16 780LV 28.5R/36.3I/35D (Dems+6.5) 44.4 35.9 > 1 month   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The sample is D+6.5%. I will adjust to a D+5%, which is the spread we saw last cycle. Dems drop 1.5%. Dem 42.9, GOP 35.9 42.9 35.9   > 1 month                 Like our coverage? Like us on Facebook.   Follow me on Twitter