|
 |
 |
|
WISCONSIN |
| |
|
|
 |
POLLSTERS: Biden +4.8, Biden 50.2, Trump 45.4
REF'S AVG: Biden +3.4, Biden 49.3, Trump 45.9 |
| RETURN TO ALL BATTLEGROUND STATES |
| Current estimate on turnout: I think it will be R+3, matching 2018. |
| Explanation of Decision: Wisconsin and Iowa are hard to poll. Marquette showed a softening toward Trump a week ago. I think the state was tied then. The Civiqs poll that included polling from 11/1 convinced me to switch. This is a DailyKos poll that had the margin at 8 last month. It was never 8. Next door in Iowa, a poll I trust, Des Moines Register, shows a strong Trump lead. If Independents and women are breaking Trump in Iowa, they are breaking Trump in Wisconsin. The state will be razor thin, but I think Trump takes it. |
| 2016 Exit Poll - 35D/30I/35R without leaners (PDF) |
| 2018 Exit Poll - 42D/13I/45R with leaners (PDF) |
| Articles: Registrations: 1 | 2 |
| Pollsters' Averages Chart |
Political Ref's Averages Chart |
|
|
|
| POLL RESULT SUMMARY (SEE FULL RESULTS & EXPLANATIONS BELOW) |
| Poll |
Date |
Sample + Party Distribution |
Result |
Pollster Avg |
Ref's Avg |
| Civiqs |
10/29-11/1 |
789LV, 36D/29I/35R |
Biden 51, Trump 47 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Sample looks good. This is an interesting result for a left pollster. Has me thinking. This is an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. |
Biden 49.5, Trump 48.5 |
|
x |
| AtlasIntel |
10/30-10/31 |
781LV, 31.1D/38I/30.6R |
Biden 50.6, Trump 48.7 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Sample is low on partisans and imbalanced slightly to D's. |
Included |
|
x |
| Susquehanna Polling and Research |
10/29-10/31 |
450LV, 30D/32I/32R |
Biden 49, Trump 46 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Sample looks good. |
Included |
|
x |
| Emerson College |
10/29-10/30 |
751LV, 32D/33I/33I |
Biden 53, Trump 45 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Sample looks good, but really prefer a leaners sample at this point. |
Included |
|
x |
| Trafalgar Group |
10/24-10/25 |
1082LV, Not provided |
Biden 46.1, Trump 45.4 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Demos look fine |
Included |
|
x |
| Marquette Law School |
10/21-10/25 |
749LV, 45D/8I/45R |
Biden 48, Trump 43 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
I think there is a large percentage of Dems voting for Trump and we will see an R+3 turnout. This will buck the traditional polls, all of which show a similar result to this poll. |
Included |
|
x |
| Univ of Wisconsin-YouGov |
10/13-10/21 |
647LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 53, Trump 44 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution or voter ratios provided. |
Excluded |
|
x |
| Fox News |
10/17-10/20 |
1037LV, 39D/16I/45R |
Biden 49, Trump 44 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
According to the data, Biden won D's 96-2, I's split 44-29 and Trump won R's 87-9. |
Included |
|
x |
| Ipsos |
10/13-10/19 |
663LV, 43D/10I/41R |
Biden 51, Trump 45 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The D+2 oversamples Democrats. This is an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. |
Biden 49.5, Trump 46.5 |
|
x |
| YouGov |
10/13-10/16 |
1112"LV," (out of 1124RV, so this is effectively an RV poll). 34D/32I/33R. |
Biden 51, Trump 46 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Too few D's and R's are sampled and too many I's. Adjusting to 36D/28I/36R. This is effectively an RV poll so an RV filter will apply to the I column. According to the data, Biden won D's 95-4, I's 51-42 (44-39) and Trump won R's 94-6. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 48.7 to Trump 46.2 |
Biden 48.7, Trump 46.2 |
|
x |
| FULL POLL RESULTS AND EXPLANATIONS OF ADJUSTMENTS |
| Poll |
Date |
Sample + Party Distribution |
Result |
Pollster Avg |
Our Avg |
| Susquehanna Polling and Research |
10/29-10/31 |
450LV, 30D/32I/32R |
Biden 49, Trump 46 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Sample looks good. |
Included |
|
x |
| Emerson College |
10/29-10/30 |
751LV, 32D/33I/33I |
Biden |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Sample looks good, but really prefer a leaners sample at this point. |
Included |
|
x |
| Marquette Law School |
10/21-10/25 |
749LV, 45D/8I/45R |
Biden 48, Trump 43 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
I think there is a large percentage of Dems voting for Trump and we will see an R+3 turnout. This will buck the traditional polls, all of which show a similar result to this poll. |
Included |
|
x |
| Univ of Wisconsin-YouGov |
10/13-10/21 |
647LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 53, Trump 44 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution or voter ratios provided. |
Excluded |
|
x |
| Fox News |
10/17-10/20 |
1037LV, 39D/16I/45R |
Biden 49, Trump 44 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
According to the data, Biden won D's 96-2, I's split 44-29 and Trump won R's 87-9. |
Included |
|
x |
| Ipsos |
10/13-10/19 |
663LV, 43D/10I/41R |
Biden 51, Trump 45 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The D+2 oversamples Democrats. This is an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. |
Biden 49.5, Trump 46.5 |
|
x |
| YouGov |
10/13-10/16 |
1112"LV," (out of 1124RV, so this is effectively an RV poll). 34D/32I/33R. |
Biden 51, Trump 46 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Too few D's and R's are sampled and too many I's. Adjusting to 36D/28I/36R. This is effectively an RV poll so an RV filter will apply to the I column. According to the data, Biden won D's 95-4, I's 51-42 (44-39) and Trump won R's 94-6. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 48.7 to Trump 46.2 |
Biden 48.7, Trump 46.2 |
|
x |
| Trafalgar Group |
10/11-10/13 |
1043LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 47, Trump 45 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The demographics were slightly more favorable for Dems with gender and slightly more favorable for GOP with age and race, but only by very small margins. |
Included |
|
x |
| Reuters/Ipsos |
10/6-10/11 |
577LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 51, Trump 44 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution or voter ratios are provided. This is an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. |
Biden 49.0, Trump 46.0 |
|
x |
| New York Times/Sienna College |
10/8-10/11 |
789"LV," 29D/35I/29R |
Biden 51, Trump 41 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
I do not include New York Times polls in my averages because they do not reveal the number of voters polled to find it's likely voter pool. This is a constant and fundamental failure of Transparency that can impact Independents in particular, where they often find their leads for Democrats. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Baldwin Wallace Univ Great Lakes polls |
9/30-10/8 |
883LV (Within 3.4% margin of error), 38D/26I/36R |
Biden 49.2, Trump 42.5 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The turnout assumption is reasonable. According to the data, Biden wins D's 95-1, I's 48-32 and Trump wins R's 91-5. This is an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. |
Biden 47.8, Trump 44.0 |
|
x |
| Marquette Law School |
9/30-10/4 |
700LV, 29D/38I/29R |
Biden 47, Trump 42 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The even turnout is right, but Independents, the most likely respondents to fail to actually show up and vote, are clearly oversampled. I will apply a registered voter screen to the Independent column. 6.4% of the sample were not even registered to vote and are unlikely voters, most or all of which likely fell in the I column. Adjusting to 35D/30I/35R. Voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. The turnout was even but Biden leads by 5, suggesting Biden did 5 points better (15% across three parties) better with Independents and Democrats than Trump did with Independents and Republicans. Assuming Biden won D's 90-5, I's 50-40 (adjusted 33-37.3) and Trump won R's 88-7. Applying the inferred voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 43.9 to Trump 43.7. |
Biden 43.9, Trump 43.7 |
|
x |
| Ipsos |
9/29-10/5 |
601LV, Party distribution not available |
Biden 50, Trump 44 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution nor voter ratios of those parties is provided. |
Excluded |
|
x |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. |
9/23-9/26 |
500LV, 32D/32I/34R |
Biden 48, Trump 46 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The party distribution comes close to an even turnout, which is where it should be in Wisconsin. No adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
x |
| Trafalgar Group |
9/22-9/24 |
1189LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 47.7, Trump 44.9 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Party distribution not provided. Trafalgar group was the most accurate state pollster in 2016. |
Included |
|
x |
| YouGov |
9/10-9/21 |
664LV, D+8 for a three-state sample (PA, MI, WI) |
Biden 50, Trump 46 |
|
|
| Political Ref's take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution nor voter ratios of those parties is provided. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Survey Monkey |
June-Sept 2020 |
7169, 47D/9I/42R |
Biden 50, Trump 47 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's take on the above poll |
The D+5 sample oversamples Democrats. It should be an even turnout between D's and R's. This is a registered voter poll so a registered voter filter will be applied. |
Biden 47.5, Trump 49.4 |
|
x |
| Baldwin Wallace Univ (Great Lakes Poll) |
9/8-9/22 |
863LV, 43D/23I/35R |
Biden 50.0, Trump 41.0 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's take on the above poll |
The D+8 sample greatly oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to the more likely even turnout, or 35D/30I/35R. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 94-3, I's 43-36 and Trump won R's 94-3. Applying these voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 46.9 and Trump 44.8. |
Biden 46.9, Trump 44.8 |
|
x |
| YouGov |
9/10-9/21 |
664LV, D+8 for a three-state sample (PA, MI, WI) |
Biden 50, Trump 46 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution nor voter ratios of those parties is provided. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Survey Monkey |
June-Sept 2020 |
7049RV, Party distribution unavailable |
Biden 50, Trump 47 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's take on the above poll |
The party distribution or voter ratios are not available, but a registered voter screen can be applied. Full explanation below. |
Biden 48.3, Trump 48.7 |
|
x |
| Ipsos |
9/11-9/1 |
609LV, 40D/11I/43R |
Biden 48, Trump 43 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The partisan distribution is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
x |
| ABC/Wash Post |
9/8-9/13 |
702RV, 31D/34I/27R |
Biden 50, Trump 46 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The ABC/Washington Post poll plays partisan games. We have one such instance here. While Biden is up 4 among registered voters, he is up 6 among likely voters. This is unusual in that it almost almost never happens, meaning Dems do better with likely than registered. So I looked at the internals, D leaners and R leaners were just as likely to vote (99% and 98%) except that 81% of R leaners will vote in person whereas only 40% of D leaners will. 54% of D's will vote by mail or dropping off a ballot, whereas only 14% of R's will. 2% of D leaners don't know how they will vote, so they should be written off as unlikely but WaPo believes in them, they will do it I tell you! 0% of R's do not know how they will vote. Looking at this data, no rational person would assume D's bank more votes than R's from the registered voter sample. In person voting is the gold standard for getting your vote counted and R's show up, they really do, every election, it's shocking how consistently they show up. Voting by mail guarantees that some of it will be lost, not received on time or spoiled for bad signature, etc, and uncorrected. So how does the ABC/Washington Post poll assume D's gain 2 points on their RV number? No good answers. I'm using the RV number and applying a registered voter filter. |
Biden 47.8, Trump 48.2 |
|
x |
| CNN/SSRS |
9/9-9/13 |
816LV, 28D/44I/29R |
Biden 52, Trump 42 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Biden won D's 99-1, I's 58-30 and R's 95-4. This laughable poll assumes 89% turnout among registered voters. Won't happen, try 70%. A registered voter screen will be applied to absurd I column result. The voter turnout will be adjusted to 35D/30I/35R. The I's column adjusted is 41-27.3. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely voter turnout, Biden receives 48.8 to Trump 41.8. |
Biden 48.8, Trump 41.8 |
|
x |
| New York Times/Sienna |
9/8-9/11 |
445LV, 28D/37I/30R |
Biden 48, Trump 43 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
This looks like a big oversample of Independents and a slight oversample of R's, but it's a likely voter poll so no adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
x |
| Morning Consult |
8/31-9/9 |
816LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 50, Trump 42 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution nor voter ratios of those parties is provided. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Emerson College |
9/6-9/8 |
823LV, 37D/27I/37R |
Biden 51, Trump 44 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Party distribution looks good and this is a likely voter survey. |
Included |
|
x |
| Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group |
8/28-9/8 |
1200LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 50, Trump 46 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution nor voter ratios of those parties is provided. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Change Research |
9/4-9/6 |
501LV, For the entire battleground sample, 38D/28I/34R |
Biden 50, Trump 44 |
x |
|
| Freedom Window's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution for WI alone is provided nor voter ratios of those parties is provided. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Marquette Law School |
8/30-9/3 |
688LV, 28D/37I/31R, with leaners 34D/25I/37R (I calculated leaners based on their reported data) |
Biden 47, Trump 43 |
x |
|
| Freedom Window's Take on the above poll |
The R+3 sample slightly oversamples R's, but this is a likely voter poll so no adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
x |
| Morning Consult |
8/29-9/6 |
770LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 51, Trump 43 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution nor voter ratios of those parties is provided. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Rasmussen Reports |
9/1-9/2 |
1000LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 53, Trump 45 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution nor voter ratios of those parties is provided. |
Excluded |
|
|
| YouGov |
9/2-9/4 |
978LV, 37D/28I/34 |
Biden 50, Trump 44 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The D+3 sample oversamples Dems. Will adjust to even turnout, or 35D/28I/35R. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 94-4, I's 49-36 and Trump won R's 92-4. Applying these voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 48.0 to Trump 43.7. |
Biden 48, Trump 43.7 |
|
x |
| Morning Consult |
8/26-9/4 |
775LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 51, Trump 43 |
Repeat |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution nor voter ratios of those parties is provided. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Fox News |
8/29-9/1 |
801LV, 44D/15I/42R |
Biden 50, Trump 42 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The D+2 sample slightly oversamples Dems. Will adjust to 35D/31I/35R. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 95-2, Trump won I's 37-35 and R's 86-9. Applying these voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 47.3 to Trump 42.3. |
Biden 47.3, Trump 42.3 |
|
x |
| Morning Consult |
8/21-8/30 |
811LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 52, Trump 43 |
Repeat |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution nor voter ratios of those parties is provided. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Trafalgar Group |
8/14-8/23 |
1011LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 45, Trump 46 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution nor voter ratios of those parties is provided. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Change Research |
8/21-8/23 |
925LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 49, Trump 44 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution nor voter ratios of those parties is provided. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Civiqs |
8/13-8/17 |
754RV, 35D/31I/34R |
Biden 51, Trump 45 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The party distribution is reasonable. This is a registered voter poll and a registered voter screen will be applied. Assuming 31% of the respondents will not vote, 55% of which will be Dem leaning and 41% will be GOP leaning. Adjusted Biden at 34 and Trump at 32.3. Applying the 34/32.3 ratio to the 96% of respondents who chose Biden or Trump, Biden receives 49.2 to Trump 46.8. |
Biden 49.2, Trump 46.8 |
|
x |
| Morning Consult |
8/7-8/16 |
788LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 49, Trump 43 |
Repeat |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution or voter ratios within those parties are available. Credibility of the poll can't be verified. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Marquette Law School |
8/4-8/9 |
801RV, 29D/36I/30R |
Biden 50, Trump 45 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The party distribution looks reasonable but this is a registered voter poll and a registered voter screen will be applied. On average 31% of registered voters will not actually vote, 55% of which are Dem leaning and 41% are GOP leaning, on average. Adjusted, Biden receives 33 to Trump 32.3. Applying the 33/32.3 ratio to the 95% of respondents who chose Biden or Trump, Biden receives 48.0 to Trump 47.0 |
Included |
|
x |
| Change Research |
8/7-8/9 |
384LV, Party Distribution Not Provided |
Biden 47, Trump 43 |
Repeat |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution or voter ratios within those parties are provided. |
Excluded |
|
|
| CBS News |
8/4-8/4 |
994LV, 35D/29I/34R |
Biden 48, Trump 42 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Will adjust to a 35D/31I/35R voter turnout assumption. Biden won D's 93-2, I's 43-38 and Trump won R's 87-8. Applying these voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 48.7 to Trump 42.9. |
Biden 48.7, Trump 42.9 |
|
x |
| Univ. of Wisconsin |
7/27-8/6 |
734RV, Part Distribution Not Provided |
Biden 49, Trump 43 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Party distribution is not provided but voter ratios are. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 90-6, I's 54-37 and Trump won R's 91-5. Will adjust to the much more likely even turnout, or 42D/13I/42R, a combination of 2016 and 2018 turnouts. Will apply a registered voter screen to the Independent column. After applying the screen, I's vote 37-24.3 for Biden. Applying the voter ratios to the likely voter turnout, Biden receives 44.7 to Trump 43.9. |
Biden 44.7, Trump 43.9 |
|
x |
| Hodas & Assoc |
7/22-7/27 |
600LV, 39.2D/30.5I/29.5R. |
Biden 52, Trump 38 |
>1month |
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The D+9.7 voter turnout assumption greatly oversampled Democrats. Will adjust to the much more likely voter turnout of 35D/31I/35R. |
Biden 50.6, Trump 45.3 |
|
>1month |
| Global Strategy Group |
7/11-7/17 |
600LV, 29D/40I/31R (44D/45R with leaners) |
Biden 51, Trump 42 |
>2weeks |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The turnout assumption looks reasonable based on 2016 and 2018. Included. |
Included |
|
>2weeks |
| Change Research |
7/24-7/26 |
392LV, Party distribution for the state not provided |
Biden 48, Trump 43 |
>2weeks |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The party distribution for all six battleground states in the poll was 36D/30I/34R. This comes close to the turnout for all six states combined in 2016 according to the exit polls, which is 35.3D/31.2I/33.5R. I think these are there most credible battleground state polls by Change Research yet. Unfortunately, state specific information is required to assess the credibility of this polls, which is the purpose of the Freedom Window average. Full explanation below. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Morning Consult |
7/17-7/26 |
809LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 50, Trump 43 |
>2weeks |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution or voter ratios within those parties are provided. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Gravis Marketing |
7/22 |
754LV, 34D/34I/32R |
Biden 50, Trump 42 |
>2weeks |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The D+2 turnout slightly oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to the even turnout, 35D/31I/35D. Voter ratios within parties are not provided but can be inferred. Biden had a 2 point turnout advantage but leads by 8, so he must have done better with Republicans and Independents than Trump did with Democrats and Independents. For purposes of simplicity, I will assume Biden's advantage came completely from Independents, which it did not but the assumption will allow for a relatively accurate adjustment. Assuming each candidate won his party 90-5 and Biden won Independents 20-14 or 59% to 41%. Applying these voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 51.5 to Trump 46.0. |
Biden 51.5, Trump 46.0 |
|
>2weeks |
| Change Research |
7/10-7/12 |
601LV, Party Distribution Not Provided |
Biden 48, Trump 42 |
Repeat |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution or voter ratios within those parties is provided. Adjustment not possible. Excluded. |
Adjustment not possible. Excluded. |
|
|
| Trafalgar Group |
6/23-6/25 |
1021LV, Party Distribution Not Provided |
Biden 44.6, Trump 45.6 |
>2weeks |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither the party distribution nor the Biden/Trump vote ratios are provided. Adjustment not possible. Excluded from our averages. |
Excluded from our averages. |
|
|
| Change Research |
6/26-6/28 |
Undefined subset of 3729LV, Party Distribution Unavailable |
Biden 51, Trump 43 |
Repeat |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll |
Party distribution and voter ratios within parties unavailable. Adjustment not possible. |
Adjustment not possible |
|
|
| NYT/Sienna College |
6/8-6/15 |
655RV, 32D/39I/25R |
Biden 49, Trump 38 |
>2weeks |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll |
There is a strong chance that Sienna failed to pick up some of the Trump vote among Independents as noted by other poll analysts. The results among Independents are far out of step with other pollsters like YouGov showing a dead heat in the group. Also, this poll has a D+7 sample which varies greatly from the 2016 voter turnout where parties were even, 35D/31I/35D. This poll includes 8% of Independents and 6% of Democrats who said they are only somewhat likely to vote or not at all likely to vote. These voters should not be included in a poll and pollsters will exclude these respondents when filtering for likely voters. Pollsters know that inclusion of these respondents changes the numbers substantially, so why include them? Not only will these voters not vote, but many voters who self-report as likely to vote, and even some who say they are certain to vote, will also not vote. There are ways of screening out these respondents, but pollsters claim it's too early to do this. If that's the case then it's too early to take polls seriously, but the media reports them nonstop with major headlines. Bottom line, this category of somewhat likely to vote or will not vote at all is low hanging fruit for a pollster seeking likely voters (accuracy). I will consider this poll's results once it imposes a likely voter screen. The results are too out of the mainstream to ignore the NYT and Sienna's refusal to impose a likely voter screen. Excluded from this average |
Excluded from our average |
|
|
| Change Research |
6/12-6/14 |
Undefined subset of 2408LV, Party Distribution Unavailable |
Biden 48, Trump 44 |
Repeat |
|
| Fox News |
5/30-6/2 |
801RV, 43D/17I/40R |
Biden 49, Trump 40 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll |
The poll shows a D+3 and gets a Biden +9 result in a state Trump won in 2016. 2016 exit poll showed 35D/31I/35R. Adjusting to the 2016 voter turnout. Adjusted result is Biden 47.5, Trump 41.5. |
Biden 47.5, Trump 41.5 |
|
x |
| Change Research |
5/29-5/31 |
Undefined subset of 3958LV, Party Distribution Unavailable |
Biden 48, Trump 45 |
Repeat |
|
| Wisconsin Statewide (Hodas & Assoc) |
5/6-5/8 |
600LV, 31.7D/35.5I/32.8R |
Biden 50.8, Trump 41.7 |
>6 Weeks |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll |
The party distribution looks similar to 2016. No adjustment necessary. |
No adjustment necessary |
|
>6 Weeks |
| Marquette Law School |
5/3-5/7 |
811RV |
Biden 46, Trump 43 |
>6 Weeks |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll |
Party ID for the poll was 40D/20I/35R. 2016 exit poll showed 35D/31I/35R. So this poll sample of D+5 seems unjustified. |
No Adjustment |
|
>6 Weeks |
