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2020 AVERAGES: NATIONAL VOTE | ELECTORAL COL. | HOUSE | SENATE | Battlegrounds: FL - OH - AZ - GA - IA - NC - MI - PA - WI - NH - NV - TX - MN  
  ARIZONA
 

POLLSTERS: Biden +0.2, Biden 47.4, Trump 47.2

REF'S AVG: Trump +1.2, Biden 46.7, Trump 47.9
RETURN TO ALL BATTLEGROUND STATES
Current Turnout Assumption: 32D/32I/36R. If a leaners turnout, assume the same I column with R+4.
2016 Exit Poll - 28D/40I/32R without leaners (PDF); Demo - White 75%, Black 2%, Hispanic/Latino 15%, Asian 2%; Age - 18-29(14%), 30-44(24%), 45-64(37%), 65<(25%).
2018 Exit Poll - 41D/12I/47R with leaners (PDF)
Pollsters' Averages Chart Political Ref's Averages Chart
POLL RESULT SUMMARY (SEE FULL RESULTS & EXPLANATIONS BELOW)
Poll Date Sample + Party Distribution Result Pollster Avg Ref's Avg
Ipsos 10/27-11/2 610LV, 42D/10I/42R Biden 50, Trump 48 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll Adjusting to 40D/10I/44R. Biden 48, Trump 50   x
Marist College 10/29-11/1 988RV, 32D/31I/37R Biden 48, Trump 48 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll Data: Biden 94-6D, 57-35I, 91-7R Included   x
Data Orbital 10/28-10/30 550LV, Not provided Biden 45.9, Trump 45.3 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll Poll Notes: 1) Republican voters are coming home to President Trump. In our last two surveys, VP Biden had been picking up between 12% and 13% of the Republican vote. That has narrowed to 7.5% in this latest survey. 2) President Trump is closing the gap with Independents. Included   x
AtlasIntel 10/30-10/31 641LV, 30.3D/34I/30.5R Biden 48, Trump 50 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll GOP could have a 4-5 point turnout advantage. Included   x
Emerson 10/29-10/31 732LV, 27D/40I/34R Biden 48, Trump 46 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll No adjustment necessary Included   x
Rasmussen Reports 10/27-10/29 800LV, Look good but behind pay wall Biden 45, Trump 49 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll I looked at the internals, which are behind a pay wall. They look solid. Included   x
Susquehanna Polling & Research 10/19-10/22 500LV, 35D/24I/41R Biden 46, Trump 46 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll Party distribution looks good. No adjustment necessary. Included    
RMG Research 10/14-10/19 800LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 47, Trump 46 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll According to the strong Republican turnout model, which we are seeing in the early vote, Trump leads. I believe this model. Biden 45, Trump 47   x
YouGov 10/13-10/16 1112"LV" (Claims polled 1064RV to get 1074LV, error there, but this is an RV poll), 34D/34I/31R Biden 51, Trump 46 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll The D+3 sample oversamples D's. Adjusting to 30D/36I/34R. Biden won D's 98-1, Trump won I's 48-45 and R's 97-2. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 46.3 to Trump 50.6. Biden 46.3, Trump 50.6   x
Monmouth Univ 10/9-10/13 502LV, 32D/32I/36R Biden 49, Trump 47 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll The party distribution is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included   x
Trafalgar Group 10/6-10/8 1087LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 44, Trump 48 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll Age ranges match exit polls. Racial demographics are more favorable to Dems in this poll than the 2016 exit poll. No adjustment necessary. Included   x
FULL POLL RESULTS AND EXPLANATIONS OF ADJUSTMENTS
Poll Date Sample + Party Distribution Result Pollster Avg Ref's Avg
Rasmussen Reports 10/27-10/29 800LV, Look good but behind pay wall Biden 45, Trump 49 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll I looked at the internals, which are behind a pay wall. They look solid. Included   x
Ipsos 10/21-10/27 714LV, 42D/9I/44R Biden 47, Trump 47 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll The R+2 is too low, should be R+3 or 4. This is an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. Biden 45.5, Trump 48.5   x
Susquehanna Polling & Research 10/19-10/22 500LV, 35D/24I/41R Biden 46, Trump 46 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll Party distribution looks good. No adjustment necessary. Included    
Ipsos 10/14-10/21 658LV, 42D/11I/41R Biden 50, Trump 46 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll The D+1 oversamples Dems. Will adjust to 41D/11I/45R. Voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Biden leads by 4 with a 1-point partisan advantage. Assuming Biden won D's 90-7, I's split 45-45 and Trump won R's 90-4. Apply ratios, Biden receives 43.7 to Trump 48.3. Biden 43.7, Trump 48.3   x
Rasmussen Reports 10/18-10/19 800LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 48, Trump 46 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll 94% of Arizona voters have made up their mind with Biden leading 49-48 with this group. Include    
OH Predictive Insights 10/8-10/11 608LV, 34D/26I/40R Biden 49, Trump 45 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll The party distribution is reasonable . No adjustment necessary. Included   x
Monmouth Univ 10/9-10/13 502LV, 32D/32I/36R Biden 49, Trump 47 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll The party distribution is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included   x
Ipsos 10/7-10/14 667LV, 43D/11I/42R Biden 49, Trump 47 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll The D+1 sample oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to 43D/12I/47R. Full explanation below. Biden 47.3, Trump 49.5   x
Trafalgar Group 10/6-10/8 1087LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 44, Trump 48 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll Age ranges match exit polls. Racial demographics are more favorable to Dems in this poll than the 2016 exit poll. No adjustment necessary. Included   x
Ipsos 9/29-10/7 833LV, 42D/12I/41R Biden 48, Trump 46 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll The D+1 sample includes too few Republicans. Adjusting to R+4 or 42D/12I/46R. Biden had a +1 partisan advantage and leads by 2 points, suggesting Biden did slightly better with Republicans and Independents than Trump did with Independents and Democrats. Voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Assuming Biden won D's 92-3, I's 48-47 and Trump won R's 92-5. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 46.7 to Trump 49.2. Biden 46.7, Trump 49.2   x
SurveyMonkey 6/8-9/30 20,916LV, 43D/8I/48R Biden 48, Trump 50 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll The R+5 turnout may slightly oversample R's, but is a reasonable turnout. Biden won D's 97-2, It is also a likely voter poll, suggesting R's are more likely to turnout this election. I's 63-31 and Trump won R's 94-5. No adjustment necessary. Included - This is included because it has a heavily D lean bias relative to the mean that shows an R ahead. A poll going against it's bias is worth including. Also, includes over 20,000 LV for four months, a massive sample reaching deep into the electorate. x
Suffolk Univ 9/26-9/30 500LV, 33D/34I/33R Biden 50, Trump 46 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll The even turnout includes too many Democrats. Will adjust to R+4, or 28D/40I/32R. Biden won D's 99-1, Trump won I's 46-44 and R's 93-6. Applying these voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 47.2 to Trump 48.5. Biden 47.2, Trump 48.5   x
Susquehanna Polling & Research 9/25-9/28 500LV, 35D/25I/40R Biden 47, Trump 47 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll Party distribution is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included   x
Data for Progress 9/15-9/22 481LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 45, Trump 46 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll Neither party distribution nor voter ratios of those parties is provided. Excluded    
ABC/WaPo 9/15-9/20 579LV, Among RV 25D/38I/31R Biden 48, Trump 49 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll The party distribution is not reported for likely voters, but is for registered voters. It is consistent with 2016. Trump performs somewhat better with likely voters in Arizona, which is expected. Included   x
Change Research 9/18-9/20 702LV, Party distribution not provided. This poll notes that the timing of the poll, just after Ginsburg's death, may artificially boost Biden's number. Biden 49, Trump 43 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll Neither party distribution nor voter ratios of those parties is provided. Excluded    
New York Times/Sienna 9/10-9/15 653LV, 29D/36I/29D Biden 49, Trump 40 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll The party distribution looks reasonable, however, the poll fails to report the number of registered voters it talked to. The failure to report this basic information most likely indicates a failure to screen many unlikely voters from its sample. Considering the poll found an overwhelming victory for Biden among Independents, a hallmark of such oversampling of unlikely voters, the poll should be adjuste3d or ignored. I will apply a registered voter filter to this poll, because it likely mirrors a registered voter poll. This poll is far out of line with other polling in the state this week. Adjusted, Biden receives 48.0 to Trump 41.0. Biden 48.0, Trump 41.0   x
Kaiser Family Foundation 8/29-9/13 1298RV, 28D/28I/31R Biden 45, Trump 40 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll The R+3 sample slightly undersamples Republicans but is reasonable. The bigger problem is that this is a registered voter poll, so a registered voter filter must be applied to the I column. Simply put, more Democrats and Democrat leaning Independents than Republicans fail to actually vote on average. To see how this filter works, see our voter turnout assumptions page. Adjusted, Biden receives 43.0 to Trump 41.9. Biden 43.0, Trump 41.9   x
Monmouth Univ. 9/11-9/15 420LV, RV sample 32D/33I/35R Biden 47, Trump 47 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll The party distribution for likely voters is not provided, but the 48/44 result among registered voters supports the likely voter result that was reached. Included   x
YouGov 9/9-9/11 1106LV, 36D/30I/33R Biden 47, Trump 44 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll The sample oversampled Democrats. Will adjust to 28D/40I/32R. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 95-2, I's split 39-40 and Trump won R's 93-4. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 43.5 to Trump 46.3. Biden 43.5, Trump 46.3   x
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group 8/30-9/8 1600LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 48, Trump 47 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll Neither party distribution nor voter ratios of those parties is provided. Excluded    
Morning Consult 8/29-9/7 901LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 49, Trump 46 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll Neither party distribution nor voter ratios of those parties is provided. Excluded    
Change Research 9/4-9/6 470LV, For the entire battleground sample, 38D/28I/34R Biden 49, Trump 45 x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll Neither party distribution for AZ alone is provided nor voter ratios of those parties is provided. Excluded    
Fox News 8/29-9/1 772LV, 46D/11I/43R Biden 49, Trump 40 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+3 sample badly oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to R+4, or 42D/11I/46R. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 92-3, I's 29-19 and Trump won R's 85-8. Fox did not report the margin with Independents among Likely Voters but I could calculate it based on the numbers they did report. Applying these voter ratios to the much more likely 42D/11I/46R voter turnout, Biden receives 45.5 to Trump 42.5. Biden 45.5, Trump 42.5   x
Morning Consult 8/21-8/30 943LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 52, Trump 42 Excluded  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll This poll is excluded as an outlier outside of the margin of error of all other polls averaged. Occasionally pollsters get bad samples and that's normal. This is likely one of them. If other polls come out placing this within the margin of error of the average, I will include it.    
Change Research 8/7-8/9 428LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 45, Trump 44 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution or voter ratios are provided. Excluded    
Emerson College 8/8-8/10 661LV, 32.4D/32.8I/34.8R Biden 49, Trump 45 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The R+2.4 sample slightly undersamples Republicans. Will adjust to the more likely R+4, 30D/33I/34R. Vote ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Biden had a 2.4% disadvantage in turnout and leads by 4, suggesting he won more Republicans and Independents than Trump won Democrats and Independents. I will assume for the sake of simplicity that Biden won Independents 19-13, or 58-40%, and that each candidate won his party 90-5. While this is not accurate, it is a fiction that allows for an accurate adjustment. It is impossible to know exactly how many Democrats Trump won and Republicans Biden won, so I will put the full Biden advantage among Independents. Applying these ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 47.7 to Trump 45.1. Biden 47.7, Trump 45.1   x
Trafalger Group 8/5-8/8 1013LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 44, Trump 45 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution or voter ratios are provided. Excluded    
OH Predictive Insights 8/3-8/4 603RV, Party distribution not provided Biden 49, Trump 45 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution or voter ratios are provided. Excluded    
OnMessage Inc. 8/2-8/4 400LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 48, Trump 51 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Party distribution is not provided by voter ratios are. Biden won D's 94-5, I's split 46 Biden and 44 Trump, and Trump won R's 93-5. Applying these ratios to the like voter turnout of 28D/40I/32R, Biden receives 46.3 to Trump 47.4. Biden 46.3, Trump 47.4   x
Change Research 7/24-7/26 365LV, Party distribution for the state not provided Biden 47, Trump 45 Repeat  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution for all six battleground states in the poll was 36D/30I/34R. This comes close to the turnout for all six states combined in 2016 according to the exit polls, which is 35.3D/31.2I/33.5R. I think these are there most credible battleground state polls by Change Research yet. Unfortunately, state specific information is required to assess the credibility of this polls, which is the purpose of the Freedom Window average. Full explanation below. Excluded    
Morning Consult 7/17-7/26 908LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 49, Trump 42 >1month  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution or voter ratios within those parties are provided. Excluded    
Spry Strategies 7/11-7/16 700LV, 33D/26I/39R Biden 49.4, Trump 44.6 >1month  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The R+6 turnout seems to be a leaners turnout assumption because the Independent column is low. This matches 2018 turnout (R+6) when leaners were included and comes very close to the R+4 in 2016. No adjustment necessary. Included   >1month
OH Predictive Insights 7/6-7/7 600LV, 34D/26I/39R Biden 49, Trump 44 >1month  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution in the voter turnout assumption looks good. No adjustment necessary. No adjustment necessary   >1month
Change Research 7/10-7/12 345LV, Party Distribution Not Provided Biden 51, Trump 45 Repeat  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution or voter ratios within those parties is provided. Adjustment not possible. Excluded. Adjustment not possible. Excluded.    
CBS/YouGov 7/7-7/10 1087RV, 34.1D/32.6I/32.7R Biden 46, Trump 46 >1month  
Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll The D+1.4 sample oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to the more likely 28D/40I/32R voter turnout model we saw in 2016. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 92-3, Trump won I's 46-37 and R's 90-7. Extrapolating these voter ratios to the more likely voter turnout model, Biden receives 42.8 to Trump 48.0. Biden 42.8, Trump 48.0   >1month
Data Orbital 6/27-6/29 600LV, 32.5D/26I/39.5R Biden 47, Trump 45 >1month  
Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll The R+7 sample probably oversamples Independents. Adjusting to a more likely 43D/10I/47R voter turnout. Biden won D's 90-5, I's 47.0-27 and Trump won R's 88-8. Adjusted result is Biden 47.2 to Trump 46.2. Biden 47.2, Trump 46.2   >1month
Change Research 6/26-6/28 Undefined subset of 3729LV, Party Distribution Unavailable Biden 51, Trump 44 Repeat  
Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll Party distribution and voter ratios within parties unavailable. Adjustment not possible. Adjustment not possible    
NYT/Sienna College 6/8-6/16 650RV, 25D/41I/30R Biden 48, Trump 41 >1month  
Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll There is a strong chance that Sienna failed to pick up some of the Trump vote among Independents as noted by other poll analysts. The results among Independents are far out of step with other pollsters like YouGov showing a dead heat in the group. Also, this poll includes 13% of Independents, 2% of Republicans and 3% of Democrats who said they are only somewhat likely to vote or not at all likely to vote. These voters should not be included in a poll and pollsters will exclude these respondents when filtering for likely voters. Pollsters know that inclusion of these respondents changes the numbers substantially, so why include them? Not only will these voters not vote, but many voters who self-report as likely to vote, and even some who say they are certain to vote, will also not vote. There are ways of screening out these respondents but pollsters claim it's too early to do this. If that's the case then it's too early to take polls seriously but the media reports them nonstop with major headlines. Bottom line, this category of somewhat likely to vote or will not vote at all is low hanging fruit for a pollster seeking likely voters (accuracy). I will consider this poll's results once it imposes a likely voter screen. The results are too out of the mainstream to ignore the NYT and Sienna's refusal to impose a likely voter screen. Excluded from this average Excluded from our average    
Change Research 6/12-6/14 Undefined subset of 2408LV, Party Distribution Unavailable Biden 45, Trump 44 >1month  
Civiqs 6/13-6/15 1368RV, 34D/31I/35R Biden 49, Trump 45 >1month  
Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll The R+1 sample is a bit low. I will reallocate the partisan vote to a party distribution matching 2016, 28D/40I/32R. According to the poll data, D's voted 90-3 for Biden, R's voted 89-7 for Trump and I's voted 50-40 for Biden. The adjusted result is Biden 47.4 to Trump 48.0. Biden 47.4, Trump 48.0   >1month
Fox News 5/30-6/2 1002RV, 43D/14I/43R Biden 46, Trump 42 >1month  
Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll The voter turnout model in the poll shows R's and D's equal. I will opt for the 2016 model where R's were +4. Adjusting to 39D/18I/43R. The Biden/Trump vote ratios within each party are not provided but can be inferred. Biden had an even voter turnout model between D's and R's and was still up 4, so he did well with Independents. Trump's 4 point advantage among R's in the more likely turnout model I am using offsets Biden's win with Independents and brings the poll to a virtual dead heat. Also, keep in mind that this is a poll of all registered voters. 20% of the respondents in this poll essentially told the pollster that they are almost certain not to vote by labeling themselves either only somewhat or not at all interested in this election, yet Fox News included their responses. This greatly undermines the credibility of this poll. More Democrat than Republican leaning voters who claim they will vote actually fail to show up and vote. Trump is likely ahead based on this poll, but we are stuck with these unreliable numbers. Biden 42.5, Trump 42   >1month
Change Research 5/29-5/31 Undefined subset of 3958LV, Party Distribution Unavailable Biden 44, Trump 45 Repeat  
Highground Public Affairs Consult 5/18-5/22 400LV, 34D/8I/38R Biden 47.0, Trump 45.3 >1month  
Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll 2016 Exit Polls showed a voter turnout of 28D/40I/32R. The R+4 poll sample does not vary much from this, so no adjustment is necessary. No adjustment necessary   >1month
Redfield & Wilton 5/10-5/14 946LV, Party distribution unavailable Biden 45, Trump 41 >1month  
Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll   Biden 44, Trump 42   >1month
OH Predictive Insights 5/9-5/11 600LV, 34D/27I/39R Biden 50, Trump 43 >1month  
OH Predictive Insights Adjustment   No adjustment, but excluded from my projection   >1month

To see results of 2016 Arizona polls below, click here

Best 2016 Arizona Poll: Emerson College

Polls that got Arizona right: UPI/CVoter, Reuters/Ipsos, CCES/YouGov, Data Orbital, NBC/Marist, CNN/OpRes, CBS/YouGov, Monmouth

Polls that got Arizona wrong: Survey Monkey, Saguaro Strategies

 
         
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