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IOWA |
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POLLSTERS: Trump +0.6, Biden 46.1, Trump 46.7
REF'S AVG: Trump +4.3, Biden 44.8, Trump 49.1 |
| RETURN TO ALL BATTLEGROUND STATES |
| 2016 Exit Poll- 31D/35I/34R without leaners (PDF) |
| 2018 Exit Poll - 36D/17I/47R with leaners (PDF) |
| Pollsters' Averages Chart |
Political Ref's Averages Chart |
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| POLL RESULT SUMMARY (SEE FULL RESULTS & EXPLANATIONS BELOW) |
| Poll |
Date |
Sample + Party Distribution |
Result |
Pollster Avg |
Ref's Avg |
| Des Moines Register |
10/26-10/29 |
814LV, Not provided |
Biden 41, Trump 48 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Biden 93-2 D, 35-49 I, Trump 89-4 R |
Included |
|
x |
| RMG Research |
10/15-10/21 |
800LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 47.0, Trump 47.0 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Using the strong GOP turnout model provided by RMG, which I think matches the evidence. |
Biden 46.0, Trump 49.0 |
|
x |
| Monmouth Univ |
10/15-10/19 |
501RV, 34D/32I/34R |
Biden 47.0, Trump 48.0 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
I am using the RV model because the LV model just looks unsupportable and the party distribution is not provided for the LV model. Will adjust to 31D/31I/36R. Vote ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Trump leads by 1 with an even turnout, so he did slightly better across party. Assuming Biden won D's 90-5, Trump I's 48-45 and R's 90-5. Applying ratios, Biden receives 43.7 to Trump 48.8. |
Biden 43.7, Trump 48.8 |
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x |
| Emerson College |
10/19-10/21 |
435LV, 34D/32I/34R |
Biden 48, Trump 48 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The even split includes too few Republicans. Adjusting to 34D/29I/37R. According to the data, Biden won D's 86-10, I's split 45-43 and Trump won R's 89-7. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 44.9 to Trump 48.8. |
Biden 44.9, Trump 48.8 |
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x |
| New York Times/Sienna |
10/18-10/20 |
753"LV," 28D/37I/33R |
Biden 46, Trump 43 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The I column is much too big and demonstrates why I don't include NYT polls in my average. They do not identify how many RVs they called to get this LV sample, a serious lack of transparency. This tactic often allows pollsters to include too many I's. |
Excluded |
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| Insider Advantage |
10/18-10/19 |
400LV, 29D/24I/38R |
Biden 45, Trump 44 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Too many I's and not enough D's included in the sample. Adjusting to 38D/17I/45R. According to the data, Biden won D's 94-6, I's 50-30 and Trump won R's 90-7. Biden receives 47.4 to Trump 47.9. |
Biden 47.4, Trump 47.9 |
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x |
| YouGov |
10/6-10/9 |
1035"LV" (this is really a RV poll, assumes 99%+ turnout of RV. Will really be 70-75%). 32D/34I/35R |
Biden 49, Trump 49 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
This is really a registered voter poll so a registered voter screen will be applied to the entire sample. See Voter Turnout Assumptions for explanation. Biden receives 45.9 to Trump 52.0. |
Biden 45.9, Trump 52.0 |
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x |
| FULL POLL RESULTS AND EXPLANATIONS OF ADJUSTMENTS |
| Poll |
Date |
Sample + Party Distribution |
Result |
Pollster Avg |
Ref's Avg |
| Des Moines Register |
10/26-10/29 |
814LV, Not provided |
Biden 48, Trump |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Biden 93-2 D, 35-49 I, Trump 89-4 R |
Included |
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| RMG Research |
10/15-10/21 |
800LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 47.0, Trump 47.0 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Using the strong GOP turnout model provided by RMG, which I think matches the evidence. |
Biden 46.0, Trump 49.0 |
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| Monmouth Univ |
10/15-10/19 |
501RV, 34D/32I/34R |
Biden 47.0, Trump 48.0 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
I am using the RV model because the LV model just looks unsupportable and the party distribution is not provided for the LV model. Will adjust to 31D/31I/36R. Vote ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Trump leads by 1 with an even turnout, so he did slightly better across party. Assuming Biden won D's 90-5, Trump I's 48-45 and R's 90-5. Applying ratios, Biden receives 43.7 to Trump 48.8. |
Biden 43.7, Trump 48.8 |
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| Emerson College |
10/19-10/21 |
435LV, 34D/32I/34R |
Biden 48, Trump 48 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The even split includes too few Republicans. Adjusting to 34D/29I/37R. According to the data, Biden won D's 86-10, I's split 45-43 and Trump won R's 89-7. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 44.9 to Trump 48.8. |
Biden 44.9, Trump 48.8 |
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| New York Times/Sienna |
10/18-10/20 |
753"LV," 28D/37I/33R |
Biden 46, Trump 43 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The I column is much too big and demonstrates why I don't include NYT polls in my average. They do not identify how many RVs they called to get this LV sample, a serious lack of transparency. This tactic often allows pollsters to include too many I's. |
Excluded |
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| Insider Advantage |
10/18-10/19 |
400LV, 29D/24I/38R |
Biden 45, Trump 44 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Too many I's and not enough D's included in the sample. Adjusting to 38D/17I/45R. According to the data, Biden won D's 94-6, I's 50-30 and Trump won R's 90-7. Biden receives 47.4 to Trump 47.9. |
Biden 47.4, Trump 47.9 |
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| YouGov |
10/6-10/9 |
1035"LV" (this is really a RV poll, assumes 99%+ turnout of RV. Will really be 70-75%). 32D/34I/35R |
Biden 49, Trump 49 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
This is really a registered voter poll so a registered voter screen will be applied to the entire sample. See Voter Turnout Assumptions for explanation. Biden receives 45.9 to Trump 52.0. |
Biden 45.9, Trump 52.0 |
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x |
| Selzer & Co. |
9/14-9/17 |
658LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 47, Trump 47 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution or voter ratios are provided. |
Excluded |
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| Fabrizio, Ward/Hart Research Assoc |
8/30-9/5 |
800LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 45, Trump 47 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution or voter ratios are provided. |
Excluded |
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| Monmouth Univ |
7/30-8/3 |
401LV, 34D/32I/34R |
Biden 47, Trump 47 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The even turnout oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to R+3 or 31D/35I/34R. According to the poll data, Biden wins D's 95-3, Trump wins I's 47-41 and R's 91-6. Applying these ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 45.9 to Trump 48.3. |
Biden 45.9, Trump 48.3 |
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x |
| Data for Progress |
7/24-8/2 |
1101LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 45, Trump 46 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Party distribution not provided. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 93-5, I's split 40-38 and Trump won R's 91-5. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely voter turnout of 31D/35I/34R, Biden receives 44.5 to Trump 45.8. |
Biden 44.5, Trump 45.8 |
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x |
| PPP |
7/23-7/24 |
1118RV, 35D/30I/35R |
Biden 47, Trump 48 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The even turnout sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to an R+3, 31D/35I/34R voter turnout assumption. The voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. The poll assumed an even turnout between Dems and the GOP, but Trump still had a 1-point lead. This suggests that Trump did slightly better with Independents and Democrats than Biden did with Independents and Republicans. Will assume that Trump won Independents by one point, 15.5-14.5 or 51.6% to 48.4%. Assuming also that Biden won D's 90-5 and Trump won R's 90-5. Applying these ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 46.5 to Trump 50.2. |
Biden 46.5, Trump 50.2 |
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x |
| Spry Strategies |
7/11-7/16 |
701LV, 35D/26I/38R |
Biden 47.5, Trump 45.9 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Party distribution of R+3 matches 2016. No adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
x |
| Selzer & Co |
6/7-6/10 |
674LV |
Biden 43, Trump 44 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll |
The partisan distribution is not provided so no adjustment can be offered. |
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| Civiqs |
6/6-6/8 |
865RV, 32D/32IR/36R |
Biden 46, Trump 46 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll |
The partisan distribution is 40D/19I/41R in one poll. The total registrations differ slightly, with 33D% Dems, 36% Independent and 31% Republican. We should assume that there are more Republican leaning Independents than Democratic leaning Independents with these findings. The distribution of this poll approximates this distribution. No adjustment necessary. |
No adjustment necessary |
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x |
| PPP |
6/3-6/4 |
963RV, 35D/30I/35R |
Biden 47, Trump 48 |
Repeat |
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| Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll |
Parity in party distribution seems fair here. The partisan distribution is 40D/19I/41R in one poll. The total registrations differ slightly, with 33D% Dems, 36% Independent and 31% Republican. We should assume that there are more Republican leaning Independents than Democratic leaning Independents with these findings. No adjustment necessary. |
No adjustment necessary. |
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Repeat |
To see results of 2016 Iowa polls below, click here
Best 2016 Iowa Poll: Survey Monkey
Polls that got Iowa right: Des Moines Register, Emerson College, The Gazette
*Polls that got Iowa wrong: Reuters/Ipsos, CCES/YouGov, UPI/47, Quinnipiac
*To predict the 2016 election incorrectly in Iowa required major systemic errors. Trump won by 9.5%. Hard to see how such a pollster has any credibility in the state. |
