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2020 AVERAGES: NATIONAL VOTE | ELECTORAL COL. | HOUSE | SENATE | Battlegrounds: FL - OH - AZ - GA - IA - NC - MI - PA - WI - NH - NV - TX - MN  
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POLLSTERS: Biden +6.6, Biden 50.6, Trump 44.0

REF'S AVG: Biden +6.2, Biden 50.5, Trump 44.3
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2016 Exit Poll - 28D/44I/28R without leaners (PDF)
2018 Exit Poll - 42D/15I/42R with leaners (PDF)
Pollsters' Averages Chart Political Ref's Averages Chart
POLL RESULT SUMMARY (SEE FULL RESULTS & EXPLANATIONS BELOW)
Poll Date Sample + Party Distribution Result Pollster Avg Ref's Avg
Univ of New Hampshire 10/9-10/12 899LV, 43D/15I/42R Biden 55, Trump 43 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Party distribution is reasonable. Included   x
American Research Group, Inc. 9/25-9/28 600LV, 35D/32I/33R Biden 53, Trump 44 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included   x
Democracy Institute 9/30-10/2 400LV, 28D/42I/31R Biden 44, Trump 46 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The R+3 turnout may oversample R's a bit but is a reasonable turnout. No adjustment necessary. Included   x
Emerson College 9/30-10/1 700LV, 32D/38I/30R Biden 52, Trump 45 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included   x
UMass-Lowell 9/17-9/25 657LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 52, Trump 44 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll According to the poll data, Biden won D's 95-3, I's 50-35 and Trump won R's 90-9. Applying the voter ratios to the likely turnout of 42D/15I/42R, Biden receives 51.2 to Trump 44.3. Biden 51.2, Trump 44.3   x
New York Times/Sienna 9/8-9/11 445LV, 22D/51I/24R Biden 45, Trump 42 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution is in line with 2016. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 94-3, I's split 41-41 and Trump won R's 84-12. Party distribution is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included   x
FULL POLL RESULTS AND EXPLANATIONS OF ADJUSTMENTS
Poll Date Sample + Party Distribution Result Pollster Avg Ref's Avg
Univ of New Hampshire 10/9-10/12 899LV, 43D/15I/42R Biden 55, Trump 43 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Party distribution is reasonable. Included   x
American Research Group, Inc. 9/25-9/28 600LV, 35D/32I/33R Biden 53, Trump 44 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included   x
Democracy Institute 9/30-10/2 400LV, 28D/42I/31R Biden 44, Trump 46 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The R+3 turnout may oversample R's a bit but is a reasonable turnout. No adjustment necessary. Included   x
Emerson College 9/30-10/1 700LV, 32D/38I/30R Biden 52, Trump 45 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included   x
UMass-Lowell 9/17-9/25 657LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 52, Trump 44 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll According to the poll data, Biden won D's 95-3, I's 50-35 and Trump won R's 90-9. Applying the voter ratios to the likely turnout of 42D/15I/42R, Biden receives 51.2 to Trump 44.3. Biden 51.2, Trump 44.3   x
Univ. of New Hampshire 9/24-9/28 972LV, 42D/16I/42R Biden 53, Trump 44 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll According to the poll data, Biden won D's 93-6, I's 60-35 and Trump won R's 90-6. Included   x
New York Times/Sienna 9/8-9/11 445LV, 22D/51I/24R Biden 45, Trump 42 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution is in line with 2016. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 94-3, I's split 41-41 and Trump won R's 84-12. Party distribution is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included   x
Democracy Institute 8/26-8/28 400LV, 28D/42I/31R Biden 43, Trump 47 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution hits the mark with the high Independent sample. No adjustment necessary. Biden 43, Trump 47   x
St. Anselm College 8/15-8/17 1042RV, 32D/34I/34R Biden 51, Trump 43 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution looks reasonable. This is a registered voter poll so a registered voter screen will be applied. Biden adjusts to 34 to Trump 30.3. 34/30.3 applied to the 94% of respondents who chose Biden or Trump, Biden receives 49.7 to Trump 44.3. Biden 49.7, Trump 44.3   x
Univ. of New Hampshire 7/16-7/28 47D/10I/43R Biden 53, Trump 40 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+4 sample oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to the more likely even turnout, 42D/15I/42R. Biden won D's 95-1, I's 46-37 and Trump won R's 86-7. Applying these voter ratios to the more likely turnout model, Biden receives 49.7 to Trump 42.1. Full explanation below. Biden 49.7, Trump 42.1   x
St. Anselm College 6/13-6/16 1072RV, 33D/35I/31R Biden 49, Trump 42 >6weeks  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+2 is a bit high for Democrats. Adjusting the reported 33D/35I/31R to 28D/44I/28R that voted in 2016. According to the data, Biden won D's 90-4, I's 48-39, and Trump won R's 86-8. Allocating these ratios within each party to a party distribution of 28D/44I/28R, results in Biden 48.6 to Trump 42.4. It is very important to remember that this is also a registered voter poll which means it includes many people who will not vote, and this group disproportionately votes Democratic. The margin between Biden and Trump is likely closer than our adjusted result. Biden 48.6., Trump 42.4   >6weeks

To see results of 2016 New Hampshire polls below, click here

Best 2016 New Hampshire Poll: Emerson

Polls that got New Hampshire right: Univ. of New Hampshire, Alliance/ESA, UPI/CVoter, Survey Monkey, CCES/YouGov,

Polls that got New Hampshire wrong: Gravis, Boston Globe/Suffolk, ARG, UMASS Lowell, WBUR/MassInc, Inside Sources

 
         
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