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TEXAS |
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POLLSTERS: Trump +3.5, Biden 45.8, Trump 49.1
REF'S AVG: Trump +7.8, Biden 43.8, Trump 51.6 |
| RETURN TO ALL BATTLEGROUND STATES |
| Current Estimate of Turnout: 32D/26I/40R, With leaners - take I column and R+8 |
| 2016 Exit Poll - 29D/33I/38R without leaners (PDF) |
| 2018 Exit Poll - 41D/10I/49R with leaners (PDF) |
| Pollsters' Averages Chart |
Political Ref's Averages Chart |
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| Poll |
Date |
Sample + Party Distribution |
Result |
Pollster Avg |
Ref's Avg |
| New York Times/Sienna |
10/20- 10/25 |
802LV, 31D/29I/35R |
Biden 43, Trump 47 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
I do not include New York Times polls in my averages because they do not reveal the number of voters polled to find it's likely voter pool. This is a constant and fundamental failure of Transparency that can impact Independents in particular, where they often find their leads for Democrats. |
Excluded |
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| YouGov |
10/13-10/2 |
1000LV, Not provided |
Biden 45.9, Trump 51.4 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Will assume 32D/26I/40R. According to the data, Biden won D's 96-3, Trump won I's 51-34 and R's 93-6. Biden receives 42.0 to Trump 51.4. |
Biden 42.0, Trump 51.4 |
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x |
| Univ. of Texas at Tyler |
10/13- 10/20 |
925LV, 33D/27I/40R |
Biden 48, Trump 45 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Voter ratios are not provided and this is too complicted to infer. |
Excluded |
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| Survey Monkey |
9/15-10/13 |
13,081LV, Error in reporting |
Biden 47, Trump 51 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
This pollster has the most pro-Democrat mean-reverted bias on fivethirtyeight.com, +5.0 more favorable to Dems. (Screenshot, Direct Link). This is also an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. |
Biden 45.5, Trump 52.5 |
|
x |
| YouGov |
9/25-10/4 |
908LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 45, Trump 50 |
Repeat |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution or voter ratios are provided. |
Excluded |
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| Pulse Opinion Research |
10/5-10/6 |
1000LV, 32D/30I/38I |
Biden 44, Trump 51 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The party distribution is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
x |
| UMass-Lowell |
9/18-9/25 |
882LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 46, Trump 50 |
>1month |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
According to the poll data, Biden won D's 95-2, I's 43-36 and Trump won R's 93-5. No adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
>1month |
| New York Times/Sienna |
9/16-9/22 |
653LV, 31D/26I/38R |
Biden 43, Trump 46 |
Repeat |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The R+7 sample is reasonable, although perhaps a bit low. Texas is shifting. No adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
Repeat |
| Quinnipiac Univ |
9/17-9/21 |
1078LV, 28D/31I/34R |
Biden 45, Trump 50 |
>1month |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The R+6 sample is reasonable, although perhaps a bit low. Texas is shifting. No adjustment necessary. |
Included |
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>1month |
| YouGov |
9/15-9/18 |
1140LV, 37D/26I/36R |
Biden 46, Trump 48 |
Repeat |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The D+1 sample greatly oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to an R+9 sample, or 29D/33I/38R. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 92-4, Trump won I's 50-36 and Trump won R's 92-5. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely voter turnout, Biden receives 40.5 to Trump 52.6. |
Biden 40.5, Trump 52.6 |
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Repeat |
| PPP |
9/1-9/2 |
743RV, 37D/22I/41R |
Biden 47, Trump 48 |
>1month |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The party distribution heavily oversamples Democrats and undersamples Independents. Will adjust to the more likely 29D/33I/38R voter turnout. Voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Trump had a 4-point partisan advantage but leads by 1, suggesting Biden did 3 points (9%) better with Independents and Republicans than Trump did with Independents and Democrats. Will assume Biden won D's 92-3, I's 48-44 and Trump won R's 91-6. Applying these voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 44.8 to Trump 50.0. |
Biden 44.8, Trump 50.0 |
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>1month |
| Univ. of Texas at Tyler |
8/28-9/2 |
901LV, 40R/25I/35D |
Biden 46, Trump 48 |
>1month |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The R+5 sample undersamples Republicans. Adjusting to R+9, or 40R/29I/31D. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 93-4, I's 46-37 and Trump won R's 92-5. Applying these voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 43.7 to Trump 48.8. |
Biden 43.7, Trump 48.8 |
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>1month |
| Morning Consult |
8/21-8/30 |
2632LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 47, Trump 48 |
>1month |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution or voter ratios within those parties is provided. |
Excluded |
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| PPP |
8/21-8/22 |
764RV, 35D/24I/41R |
Biden 48, Trump 47 |
Repeat |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
This is a registered voter poll so I will apply a registered voter screen. The registered voter screen assumes 31% (17% D, 12.7% R) of the respondents will not actually vote. After adjustment Biden receives 31.0 to Trump 34.3. Applying the 31/34.3 ratio to the 95% of respondents who chose Biden or Trump, Biden receives 45.1 to Trump 49.9. |
Biden 45.1, Trump 49.9 |
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Repeat |
| YouGov |
8/4-8/13 |
846RV |
Biden 41, Trump 48 |
Repeat |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
97.1% of the Trump vote is strong/very strong. |
Included |
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Repeat |
| Trafalgar Group |
8/1-8/5 |
1015LV |
Biden 43, Trump 49 |
>1month |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution or voter ratios within those parties is provided. |
Excluded |
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| Spry Strategies |
7/16-7/20 |
750LV, 31D/26I/42R |
Biden 44.8, Trump 49.5 |
>1month |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The R+11 turnout comes close to the R+9 2016 turnout. An adjustment would make little difference. No adjustment necessary. |
Included |
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>1month |
| Gravis Marketing |
7/7 |
591LV, Party Distribution Not Provided |
Biden 44, Trump 46 |
>1month |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution or voter ratios withing those parties were provided. Adjustment not possible. |
Adjustment not possible. |
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| YouGov |
7/7-7/10 |
1185LV, 31.6D/32.4I/33.8R |
Biden 45, Trump 46 |
>1month |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The R+2.2 sample oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to the much more likely R+9, or 29D/38I/38R. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 92-4, I's split with 41 for Biden and 43 for Trump, and Trump won R's 89-4. Reallocating to the much more likely voter turnout, Biden receives 43.8 to Trump 51.3. |
Biden 43.8 to Trump 51.3 |
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>1month |
| Dallas Morning News/UT Tyler |
6/29-7/7 |
1677LV, 39D/19I/42R |
Biden 48, Trump 43 |
>1month |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The R+3 voter sample in this poll oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to the more likely 2016 turnout of R+9, or 36D/19I/45R. Assuming a voter turnout of According to the poll data, Biden won D's 87-4, I's 53-29 and Trump won R's 85-9. Reallocating these ratios to the more likely voter turnout, Biden receives 45.5 to Trump 45.2. |
Biden 45.5, Trump 45.2 |
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>1month |
