|
 |
 |
|
NEVADA |
| |
|
|
 |
POLLSTERS: Biden +2.5, Biden 48.1, Trump 45.6
REF'S AVG: Biden +1.2, Biden 47.8, Trump 46.6 |
| KEY VOTER DETAIL: Likely Republican voters outnumber likely Democratic voters among unregistered Nevadans more than 2 to 1 |
| RETURN TO ALL BATTLEGROUND STATES |
| 2016 Exit Poll - 36D/36I/28R without leaners (PDF) |
| 2018 Exit Poll - 44D/14I/42R with leaners (PDF) |
| Pollsters' Averages Chart |
Political Ref's Averages Chart |
|
|
|
| Poll |
Date |
Sample + Party Distribution |
Result |
Pollster Avg |
Ref's Avg |
| Survey Monkey |
10/20-11/1 |
2211LV, Not provided |
Biden 49, Trump 49 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
No adjustment necessary |
Included |
|
x |
| Emerson College |
10/29-10/31 |
720LV, 39D/27I/34R |
Biden 49, Trump 47 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Party distribution looks good. |
Included |
|
x |
| Trafalgar Group |
10/28-10/29 |
1024LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 49, Trump 47 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Demographics match. No adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
x |
| Survey Monkey |
9/15-10/12 |
1915LV, Error in reporting |
Biden 51, Trump 47 |
Repeat |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
This pollster has the most pro-Democrat mean-reverted bias on fivethirtyeight.com, +5.0 more favorable to Dems. (Screenshot, Direct Link). This is also an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. |
Biden 49.5, Trump 48.5 |
|
Repeat |
| WPA Intelligence |
10/7-10/11 |
37D/31I/32R |
Biden 44, Trump 42 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Party distribution looks reasonable. No adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
x |
| YouGov |
10/6-10/9 |
1036"LV," (Assumes a 99% registered voter turnout, will be 70-75%). 37D/29I/31R |
Biden 49.0, Trump 43.0 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll |
This poll undersamples I's. Will adjust to 35D/34I/30R. This is also effectively a registered voter poll, so a registered voter filter will apply to the I column. According to the data, Biden won D's 93-6, Trump won I's 50-44 (55-39) and R's 90-8. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 48.2 to Trump 47.8 |
Biden 48.2, Trump 47.8 |
|
x |
| New York Times/Sienna |
10/2-10/6 |
660LV, 34D/33I/30R |
Biden 48, Trump 42 |
>1month |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll |
This polls never releases the number of adults or registered voters it polls, which is essential in assessing the validity of its "likely voter" pool. This is a constant lack of transparency. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Rasmussen Reports |
9/23-9/25 |
750LV, 28R/36I/36D |
Biden 49, Trump 48 |
>1month |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll |
The party distribution matches the 2016 exit polls exactly. This poll highlights Trump's strength with Hispanics. Ralston notes in the ALG poll report that Biden has yet to close the deal with Hispanics. |
Included |
|
>1month |
| ALG Research |
9/15-9/21 |
800LV, D+3 |
Biden 47, Trump 43 |
>1month |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll |
The D+3 sample is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
>1month |
| New York Times/Sienna |
9/8-9/10 |
462LV, 36D/30I/32R |
Biden 46, Trump 42 |
Repeat |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll |
The party distribution is reasonable. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 89-3, I's 41-36 and Trump won R's 93-5. No adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
Repeat |
| UNLV Lee Business School |
8/20-8/30 |
682LV, 37D/23I/34R |
Biden 44, Trump 39 |
>1month |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll |
The party distribution falls between the 2016 and 2018 exit polls, which seems reasonable. No adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
>1month |
| ALG Research |
4/27-4/30 |
763LV |
Biden 49, Trump 45 |
>1month |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll |
Jon Ralston, longtime credible Nevada politics watcher, says the party distribution of this poll is close to the actual registration numbers. So I will trust that. No adjustment. |
Included |
|
>1month |
To see results of 2016 Nevada polls below, click here
Best 2016 Nevada Poll: PPP
Polls that got Nevada right: Gravis, UPI/CVoter, Survey Monkey, Reuters/Ipsos, CCES/YouGov, Emerson, Emerson College
Polls that got Nevada wrong: Alliance/ESA, Trafalgar Group, LasVegasNow.com/JMC, CNN/OpRes, Marist |
