Explanation of Decision: According to my model, we will end up with a party distribution very slightly worse (35.7D/31.6I/32.8R) to very slightly better (36.3D/32.1I/31.6R) for the Democrat in the race when compared to 2016. In other words, we will see a similar party distribution and Hillary lost by nearly 4 points. Republicans also tend to poll a little worse than they actually perform on election day in North Carolina.
Funny, they saw a radical shift after the early voter went heavily Republican. According to the data, Biden won D's 93-4, I's 48-39 and Trump won R's 90-3. Biden should be ahead based on these numbers. This tie result seems like a realization that they are undersampling a big portion of Trump voters. Excluded because the numbers don't square with the results.
647LV, Not provided. For all respondents (41D/11I/44R)
Biden 49, Trump 48
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Political Ref's Take on the above poll
Neither party distributions for voter ratios are provided. This is an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment.
Funny, they saw a radical shift after the early voter went heavily Republican. According to the data, Biden won D's 93-4, I's 48-39 and Trump won R's 90-3. Biden should be ahead based on these numbers. This tie result seems like a realization that they are undersampling a big portion of Trump voters. Excluded because the numbers don't square with the results.
702LV, Party distribution not provided. This poll notes that the timing of the poll, just after Ginsburg's death, may artificially boost Biden's number.
Biden 48, Trump 46
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Political Ref's take on the above poll
Neither party distribution nor voter ratios of those parties is provided.
The D+2 sample slightly undersamples Democrats but is reasonable. The bigger problem is that this is a registered voter poll, so a registered voter filter must be applied to the I column. Simply put, more Democrats and Democrat leaning Independents than Republicans fail to actually vote on average. To see how this filter works, see our voter turnout assumptions page. Adjusted, Biden receives 42.3 to Trump 45.7. This number will be offset somewhat by adjusting the Democrat partisan advantage from +2 to +4 by adding 2% to the D column. Biden won D's 92-3 in this poll, so the final adjustment, Biden 44.5 to Trump 45.2.
The party distribution seems to include far too many Independents, an indicator that a large number of unlikely voters are included in the poll. Biden had a +2 partisan advantage and leads by 3, so he likely did slightly better among Independents, a group which includes a lot of unlikely voters. Biden narrowly won I's 45-43. A registered voter screen will be applied to the I column, adjusted I's vote 30-28 for Trump. This reduces their share of the electorate to a much more reasonable 30%. Adjusted Biden 46.5 to Trump 44.5.
The D+7 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to the more likely D+4, 35D/33I/31R. Vote ratios within the parties was not provided but can be inferred. Biden has a +7 turnout advantage but was only up 1, suggesting Trump won Independents by a sizable margin. Assuming Trump won I's 17-11, or 55-35% with the rest voting third party. Assuming each candidate won his party 90-5, Biden receives 44.6 to Trump 47.8.
The D+6 sample slightly oversampled Dems. Will adjust to D+4, or 35D/33I/31R. Voter ratios within parties are not provided but can be inferred. Trump leads by 2 but had a 6-point disadvantage in turnout. This suggests Trump did considerably better with Independents. Assuming Trump won Independents 19-13, with 2% voting third party, or 56% to 38%. Assuming each candidate won his party 90-5. Applying these ratios to the more likely voter turnout, Biden receives 45.6 to Trump 48.1.
284LV, Party distribution for the state not provided
Biden 49, Trump 46
>2weeks
Political Ref's Take on the above poll
The party distribution for all six battleground states in the poll was 36D/30I/34R. This comes close to the turnout for all six states combined in 2016 according to the exit polls, which is 35.3D/31.2I/33.5R. I think these are there most credible battleground state polls by Change Research yet. Unfortunately, state specific information is required to assess the credibility of this polls, which is the purpose of the Freedom Window average. Full explanation below.
Party distribution is not provided by voter ratios are. Biden won D's 76-19, Trump won I's 53-43 and Trump won R's 89-10. Reallocating these voter ratios to the 2016 more likely turnout of 35D/33I/31R, Biden receives 43.9 to Trump 51.8.
The D+6 turnout is a bit high on the Democrat side. Adjusting the sample to the 2016 voter turnout of 35D/31I/31R. The Biden/Trump vote ratios were not provided by the pollster. Biden leads by 4 in the poll while the sample had 6% more Democrats than Republicans. So Trump likely won Independents by 2, which was 30% of the sample, suggesting Trump won Independents 16-14 or 53% to 47%. Assuming Biden won D's 90-5, Trump won I's 57-43 and R's 90-5, Biden receives 47.6 to Trump 46.1.
Undefined subset of 3729LV, Party Distribution Unavailable. This poll result is suspect. The same sample of voters in North Carolina showed Republican Tillis trailing by 10 in the Senate race. That is a pretty even race right now, so this NC number is wrong.
Biden 51, Trump 44
Repeat
Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll
Party distribution and voter ratios within parties unavailable. Adjustment not possible.
North Carolina Independents tend to break Republican. For this reason, it's hard to pin down a party distribution model. As long as the parties are close or the Dem's a little ahead in turnout assumptions, no adjustment is necessary.
This party distribution includes leaners making it hard to compare to 2016. NC usually breaks down fairly evenly when leaners are included, however, so no adjustment necessary. One must remember, however, that this is a registered voter poll. Democrat leaning registered voters fail to actually vote at a higher percentage than Republican leaning registered voters. For this reason, Trump is closer than this poll suggests or is actually ahead. Because Fox News chose not to screen for likely voters, we are stuck with this unlikely result.
There is a strong chance that Sienna failed to pick up some of the Trump vote among Independents as noted by other poll analysts. The results among Independents are far out of step with other pollsters like YouGov showing a dead heat in the group. Also, this poll includes 8% of Independents, 3% of Republicans and 5% of Democrats who said they are only somewhat likely to vote or not at all likely to vote. These voters should not be included in a poll and pollsters will exclude these respondents when filtering for likely voters. Pollsters know that inclusion of these respondents changes the numbers substantially, so why include them? Not only will these voters not vote, but many voters who self-report as likely to vote, and even some who say they are certain to vote, will also not vote. But this category of somewhat likely to vote or will not vote at all is low hanging fruit for a pollster seeking likely voters (accuracy). I will consider this poll's results once it imposes a likely voter screen. The results are too out of the mainstream to ignore the refusal to impose a likely voter screen. Excluded from this average.
The D+6 likely overstates Dem turnout. Adjusting to the more likely 35D/33I/31R voter turnout. The Biden/Trump vote ratio within parties is not provided but can be inferred. Biden had a +6 advantage due to the sample being D+6, yet only leads by 2 in the poll. This means Trump made up 4 points with Independents or did well with Democrats. We will assume Trump made up 4 points with the 30% of the poll that represent Independents, or that he won it 17-13, or won the I vote 57 to 43. Assuming each candidate won their parties 90-5, the adjusted result is Biden 47.2 to Trump 48.5.
The poll has a D+6 voter sample. The 2016 exit polls show a +4 or for Dems in North Carolina, but Trump won a solid majority of Independents to win the state. State registration shows a +7 for Dems, but it is common for Democrats to turnout in lower percentages than Republicans. It seems Independents lean strongly Republican in North Carolina. This poll falls in line with this common pattern in NC. No adjustment necessary.
The poll's voter distribution is a little heavy on Dems, D+10. The 2016 exit polls show a +4 or +7 for Dems in North Carolina, but Trump won a solid majority of Independents to win the state. The poll authors write that GOP enthusiasm is down right now. I think Trump turns that around fairly easily and Dem turnout is only +5.5 in the state. To be conservative, however, we will assume it is D+7 matching the higher exit poll from 2016.
This poll uses a questionable method of determining who is a likely voter. Rather than eliminate the vote of those stating they are leaning against voting or those aren't sure if they will vote, their votes are included but weighted down. So if someone says they are leaning towards not voting, that person's vote is still counted but weighted down by 80%. This method likely inflates the Democrat share of the vote by a point to a few points.
The poll assumes 36D/28I/36R. 2016 exit poll showed D35 and R31, but 53% of Independents voted GOP. So it looks like if they asked do you lean D or R in the exit, they would have gotten 49 lean R compared to 45 lean D. This poll's party distribution, therefore, looks good. No adjustment necessary
No adjustment necessary
> 1 month
To see results of 2016 North Carolina polls below, click here
Best 2016 North Carolina Poll: Remington Research
Polls that got NC right: Google Consumer Surveys, UPI/CVoter, Reuters/Ipsos, Trafalgar Group, WRAL/Survey USA,
