|
 |
OHIO |
POLLSTERS: Trump +0.3, Biden 45.8, Trump 46.1
REF'S AVG: Trump 4.0, Biden 43.9, Trump 47.9 |
| RETURN TO ALL BATTLEGROUND STATES |
| Ref's Current Estimate of Turnout: Leaners - 41D/11I/45R; Non-leaners - 34D/28I/38R. It was R+3 in 2016 and R+6 in 2018, when the Republicans had a very difficult cycle. It is very difficult to imagine the Republican advantage dropping below 2016 considering that the GOP has higher enthusiasm, Dems are relying on digital and mail contact and no in-person contact, they are having fewer and far less attended rallies, Dems are relying on mail-in voting which will cut into their turnout % due to a significantly higher lost/spoiled percentage than voting in-person. Alternatively the GOP is knocking many doors, having large rallies and relying primarily on in-person voting on election day. |
| 2016 Exit Polls - 34D/29I/37R without leaners (PDF) |
| 2018 Exit Polls - 41D/11I/48R with leaners (PDF) |
| Pollsters' Averages Chart |
Political Ref's Averages Chart |
|
|
|
| POLL RESULT SUMMARY (SEE FULL RESULTS & EXPLANATIONS BELOW) |
| Poll |
Date |
Sample + Party Distribution |
Result |
Pollster Avg |
Ref's Avg |
| Fox News |
10/17-10/20 |
1018LV, 41D/12I/47R |
Biden 44, Trump 46 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The party distriution looks good but they assume a 92% registered voter turnout, which will not happen. No adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
x |
| Survey Monkey |
9/26-1023 |
7411LV, Party distribution not available |
Biden 51, Trump 48 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
This pollster has the most pro-Democrat mean-reverted bias on fivethirtyeight.com, +5.0 more favorable to Dems. (Screenshot, Direct Link). This is also an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. |
Biden 46.5, Trump 52.5 |
|
x |
| Rasmussen Reports |
10/18-10/19 |
800LV, Party distribution not available |
Biden 48, Trump 47 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution or voter ratios are provided. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Baldwin Wallace Univ Great Lakes polls |
9/30-10/8 |
1009LV (Within 3.1% margin of error), 36D/22I/42R |
Biden 45.4, Trump 47.0 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
According to the data, Biden wins D's 90-6, I's 45-36 and Trump wins R's 88-7. This is an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. |
Biden 44.0, Trump 48.5 |
|
x |
| New York Times/Sienna |
10/2-10/6 |
661"LV," 31D/29I/34R |
Biden 45, Trump 44 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
This polls never releases the number of adults or registered voters it polls, which is essential in assessing the validity of its "likely voter" pool. This is a constant lack of transparency. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Trafalgar Group |
10/1-10/3 |
1035LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 40, Trump 44 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Trafalgar group was tied with Remington Research and Google Consumer Surveys as the most accurate in Ohio in 2016 |
Included |
|
x |
| YouGov |
9/30-10/2 |
1114LV, 35D/27I/36R |
Biden 47, Trump 47 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The R+1 sample includes too many Dems and not enough R's. Adjusting to R+4, or 34D/28I/38R. Full explanation below. |
Biden 45.4, Trump 48.5 |
|
x |
| FULL POLL RESULTS AND EXPLANATIONS OF ADJUSTMENTS |
| Poll |
Date |
Sample + Party Distribution |
Result |
Pollster Avg |
Ref's Avg |
| Fox News |
10/17-10/20 |
1018LV, 41D/12I/47R |
Biden 44, Trump 46 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The party distriution looks good but they assume a 92% registered voter turnout, which will not happen. No adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
x |
| Survey Monkey |
9/26-1023 |
7411LV, Party distribution not available |
Biden 51, Trump 48 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
This pollster has the most pro-Democrat mean-reverted bias on fivethirtyeight.com, +5.0 more favorable to Dems. (Screenshot, Direct Link). This is also an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. |
Biden 52.5, Trump 46.5 |
|
x |
| Survey Monkey |
9/15-10/12 |
5056LV, Error in reporting |
Biden 47, Trump 51 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
This pollster has the most pro-Democrat mean-reverted bias on fivethirtyeight.com, +5.0 more favorable to Dems. (Screenshot, Direct Link). This is also an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. |
Biden 45.5, Trum 52.5 |
|
x |
| Baldwin Wallace Univ Great Lakes polls |
9/30-10/8 |
1009LV (Within 3.1% margin of error), 36D/22I/42R |
Biden 45.4, Trump 47.0 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
According to the data, Biden wins D's 90-6, I's 45-36 and Trump wins R's 88-7. No adjustment necessary. This is an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. |
Biden 44.0, Trump 48.5 |
|
x |
| New York Times/Sienna |
10/2-10/6 |
661"LV," 31D/29I/34R |
Biden 45, Trump 44 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
This polls never releases the number of adults or registered voters it polls, which is essential in assessing the validity of its "likely voter" pool. This is a constant lack of transparency. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Trafalgar Group |
10/1-10/3 |
1035LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 40, Trump 44 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Trafalgar group was tied with Remington Research and Google Consumer Surveys as the most accurate in Ohio in 2016 |
Included |
|
x |
| YouGov |
9/30-10/2 |
1114LV, 35D/27I/36R |
Biden 47, Trump 47 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The R+1 sample includes too many Dems and not enough R's. Adjusting to R+4, or 34D/28I/38R. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 94-3, Trump won I's 46-40 and R's 91-6. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 45.4 and Trump receives 48.5. |
Biden 45.4, Trump 48.5 |
|
x |
| Survey Monkey |
6/8-9/25 |
11,616RV, 44D/9I/46R |
Biden 46.5, Trump 51.5 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
This R+2 sample is reasonable. This is an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. |
Included |
|
x |
| Fox News |
9/20-9/23 |
830LV, 44D/10I/46R |
Biden 50, Trump 45 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The party distribution includes too many Democrats. Will adjust to 42D/10I/46R. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 94-3, I's 50-28 (estimated) and Trump won R's 89-8. Applying these voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 48.2 to Trump 45.0. Voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. |
Biden 48.2, Trump 45.0 |
|
x |
| Quinnipiac Univ. |
9/17-9/21 |
1085LV, 30D/33I/30R |
Biden 48, Trump 47 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The party distribution includes too many Independents and too few D's and R's. Adjusting to 34D/28I/38R. Biden had and even turnout with a 1-point lead, so he likely did slightly better with Independents. Assuming each candidate won his party 90-5 and Biden won I's 48-45. Applying these ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 45.9 to Trump 48.5. |
Biden 45.9, Trump 48.5 |
|
|
| Baldwin Wallace Univ (Great Lakes Poll) |
9/8-9/22 |
1011LV, 38D/23I/39R |
Biden 44.9, Trump 44.3 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The R+1 sample undersamples Republicans. Adjusting to 34D/28I/38R. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 88-7, I's 39-33 and Trump won R's 88-7. Applying these voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 43.5 to Trump 45.1. |
Biden 43.5, Trump 45.1 |
|
x |
| Civiqs |
9/11-9/15 |
556RV, 32D/31I/37R |
Biden 45, Trump 48 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The sample is reasonable, no adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
x |
| Rasmussen Reports |
9/1-9/2 |
1000LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 51, Trump 47 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution or voter ratios are publicly provided. This is the second consecutive battleground state where Rasmussen Reports finds a surprising lead for Biden. *This pollster charges for internal numbers. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Morning Consult |
8/21-8/30 |
1811LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 45, Trump 50 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution or voter ratios within those parties are available. Full explanation below. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Civiqs |
8/13/8/17 |
637RV, 32D/31I/37D |
Biden 47, Trump 47 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The party distribution seems reasonable. This is a registered voter polls so a registered voter screen will be applied. Assuming 31% (17D/12.7R) of the respondents will not actually turn out and vote. Adjusted, Biden receives 30 to Trump 34.3. Applying the 30/34.3 ratio to the 94% of respondents who chose Biden or Trump, Biden receives 43.9 to Trump 51.1. |
Biden 43.9, Trump 51.1 |
|
x |
| TargetSmart |
7/28-8/3 |
1249LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 47, Trump 46 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Party distribution not provided. Will adjust to 34D/29I/37R. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 93-5, I's split 43-43 and Trump won R's 89-3. |
Biden 45.2, Trump 47.1 |
|
x |
| Zogby Analytics |
7/21-7/23 |
805LV, Party distribution unavailable |
Biden 43, Trump 41 |
>1month |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution or voter ratios within those parties are available. Because of this, the quality of the partisan assumptions cannot be verified. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Univ of Akron |
6/24-7/15 |
1037RV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 46, Trump 42 |
>1month |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither voter turnout assumption or voter ratios within the parties were provided. Because of this, the quality of the partisan assumptions cannot be verified. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Morning Consult |
7/17-7/26 |
1741, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 45, Trump 48 |
Repeat |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution or voter ratios within those parties are provided. |
Excluded |
|
|
| YouGov |
7/21-7/24 |
1211LV, 35D/27I/37R |
Biden 45, Trump 46 |
>1month |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll |
The R+2 sample comes very close to the 2016 turnout. No adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
>1month |
| Pulse Opinion Research (Rasmussen Reports) |
7/15-7/16 |
750LV, Party Distribution Not Provided |
Biden 50, Trump 46 |
>1month |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll |
Party distribution & voter ratios of the vote within those parties is not provided. Neither adjustment or verification of the legitimacy of the voter turnout assumption is possible, therefore the poll result's reliability cannot be verified. For these reasons this poll result is excluded from our averages, but included only in the pollster averages above. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Quinnipiac Univ |
6/18-6/22 |
1139RV, Party Distribution Not Provided |
Biden 46, Trump 45 |
>1month |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll |
The poll doesn't provide the party distribution (voter turnout assumption) but it does provide the Biden/Trump voter ratio within each party group, making adjustment possible. Biden wins D's 93-3, Trump wins I's 44-40 and R's 92-5. Adjusting to a more likely 34D/29I/37R voter turnout, Biden receives 45.1 to Trump 47.8. |
Biden 45.1, Trump 47.8 |
|
>1month45 |
| Fox News |
5/30-6/2 |
803RV, 43D/12I/46R |
Biden 45, Trump 43 |
>6weeks |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll |
The R+3 sample is reasonable. It matches the 2016 exit poll showing 34D/29I/37R. Party ID surveys have found it to be 42R/I18/40D and 42R/17I/41D. No adjustment necessary, reasonable party distribution. One must remember, however, that this is a registered voter poll. Democrat leaning registered voters fail to actually vote at a higher percentage than Republican leaning registered voters. For this reason, Trump is closer than this poll suggests or is actually ahead. Because Fox News chose not to screen for likely voters, we are stuck with this unlikely result. |
No adjustment necessary |
|
>6weeks |
| Emerson |
5/8-5/10 |
725RV, 34D/29I/37R |
Trump 51, Biden 49 |
>6weeks |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll |
This poll finds Ohio GOP much more enthusiastic to vote Trump than Dems for Biden, 70% to 46%. The poll has a distribution of 34D/29I/37R, which matches 2016 turnout. Party ID surveys have found it to be 42R/I18/40D and 42R/17I/41D. The party distribution of the poll seems okay, but with such a disparity in R voter enthusiasm, Trump is probably ahead in Ohio. One must remember that this is a registered voter poll. Democrat leaning registered voters fail to actually vote at a higher percentage than Republican leaning registered voters. For this reason, Trump is closer than this poll suggests or is actually ahead. Because Emerson chose not to screen for likely voters, we are stuck with this unlikely result. |
No adjustment necessary |
|
>6weeks |
