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GEORGIA |
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POLLSTERS: Trump +1.2, Biden 46.7, Trump 47.9
REF'S AVG: Trump +2.3, Biden 46.0, Trump 48.3 |
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| POLL RESULT SUMMARY (SEE FULL RESULTS & EXPLANATIONS BELOW) |
| Poll |
Date |
Sample + Party Distribution |
Result |
Pollster Avg |
Ref's Avg |
| Landmark Comm |
11/1 |
500LV, 40D/12I/43R |
Biden 46, Trump 50 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Data: Biden 85-11D, 61-27I, Trump 93-7R |
Included |
|
x |
| YouGov |
10/20-10/23 |
1090LV, 36D/27I/36D |
Biden 48, Trump 48 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Sample will be adjusted to 34D/28I/38R. According to the data Biden won D's 97-2, Trump won I's 50-40 and R's 95-3. Applying ratios, Biden receives 48.1 to Trump 50.8. |
Biden 48.1, Trump 50.8 |
|
x |
| New York Times/Sienna College |
10/13-10/19 |
759LV, 33D/26I/35R |
Biden 45, Trump 45 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
This poll does not reveal the number of registered voters it polls, so I exclude it from my averages. This number is important for determining the quality of the likely vote sample. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Univ of Georgia |
9/27-10/6 |
1106LV, 42D/9I/49R |
Biden 46.4, Trump 47.5 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The leaners party distribution matches 2018. The presidential year could easily match 2018 because it was a big turnout year for Dems. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 95-2, I's 57-12 and Trump won R's 95-3. No adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
x |
| Quinnipiac Univ |
9/23-9/27 |
1125LV, 33R/25I/35D |
Biden 50, Trump 47 |
X |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The D+3 sample oversampled Democrats. Will adjust to the more likely R+2, or 34D/30I/36R. Full explanation below. |
Biden 44.6, Trump 43.4 |
|
x |
| Monmouth Univ |
9/17-9/20 |
402LV, Among RV 34D/28I/37R |
Biden 45, Trump 50 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The pool of registered voters from which likely voters were chosen looks reasonable. No adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
x |
| FULL POLL RESULTS AND EXPLANATIONS OF ADJUSTMENTS |
| Poll |
Date |
Sample + Party Distribution |
Result |
Pollster Avg |
Ref's Avg |
| YouGov |
10/20-10/23 |
1090LV, 36D/27I/36D |
Biden 48, Trump 48 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Sample will be adjusted to 34D/28I/38R. According to the data Biden won D's 97-2, Trump won I's 50-40 and R's 95-3. Applying ratios, Biden receives 48.1 to Trump 50.8. |
Biden 48.1, Trump 50.8 |
|
x |
| WSB TV/Landmark Comm |
10/20 |
500LV, Party distribution is not provided |
Biden 45, Trump 49 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Trump leads among white voters with 72% support and among seniors by 10%. |
Included |
|
|
| New York Times/Sienna College |
10/13-10/19 |
759LV, 33D/26I/35R |
Biden 45, Trump 45 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
This poll does not reveal the number of registered voters it polls, so I exclude it from my averages. This number is important for determining the quality of the likely vote sample. |
Excluded |
|
|
| WSB TV/Landmark Comm |
10/7 |
600LV, Party distribution is not provided |
Biden 47, Trump 49 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution or voter ratios are provided. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Univ of Georgia |
9/27-10/6 |
1106LV, 42D/9I/49R |
Biden 46.4, Trump 47.5 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The leaners party distribution matches 2018. The presidential year could easily match 2018 because it was a big turnout year for Dems. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 95-2, I's 57-12 and Trump won R's 95-3. No adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
x |
| Quinnipiac Univ |
9/23-9/27 |
1125LV, 33R/25I/35D |
Biden 50, Trump 47 |
X |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The D+3 sample oversampled Democrats. Will adjust to the more likely R+2, or 34D/30I/36R. This poll is of "self-identified" likely voters, which is to say that no real likely voter screen was applied. A registered voter screen will be applied to the I column to compensate for this incompleteness. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 98-0(estimate), I's 51-41 (34-28.3 adjusted) and Trump won R's 97-3. Applying these voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 44.6 to Trump 43.4. |
Biden 44.6, Trump 43.4 |
|
x |
| Monmouth Univ |
9/17-9/20 |
402LV, Among RV 34D/28I/37R |
Biden 45, Trump 50 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The pool of registered voters from which likely voters were chosen looks reasonable. No adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
x |
| Univ. of Georgia |
9/11-9/20 |
1150LV, 34D/30I/36R |
Biden 47, Trump 47 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Party distribution looks reasonable. No adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
x |
| AJC/Landmark Comm |
8/29-8/31 |
500LV, 40D/10I/46R |
Biden 41, Trump 48 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The party distribution is a leaners distribution. It falls between non-leaners 2016 and leaners 2018 as one would expect. No adjustment necessary. |
Included |
|
x |
| Morning Consult |
8/21-8/30 |
1392LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 49, Trump 46 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution or voter ratios within those parties are provided. |
Excluded |
|
|
| YouGov |
7/28-7/31 |
1109LV, 36D/26I/36R |
Biden 48, Trump 45 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The even turnout somewhat oversamples Dems. Will adjust to R+2, 34D/30I/36R voter turnout assumption. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 94-1, Trump won I's 43-39 and R's 92-3. Applying these ratios to the more likely voter turnout, Biden receives 44.8 to Trump 46.4. |
Biden 44.8, Trump 46.4 |
|
x |
| Monmouth Univ |
7/23-7/27 |
402LV, 32D/31I/37R |
Biden 46, Trump 49, Jorgenson 2 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The likely voter turnout model falls between 2016 and 2018. No adjustment necessary. Full explanation below. |
Included |
|
x |
| PPP |
7/23-7/24 |
722RV, 37D/22I/41R |
Biden 46, Trump 45 |
>1month |
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| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
This is a registered voter poll and a registered voter screen will be applied. About 31% of poll respondents will not vote, 55% of which will be Dem leaning and 41% GOP leaning on average. Adjusting Biden to 29 and Trump to 32.3. Applying the 29/32.3 ratio to the 91% of respondents who chose Biden or Trump, Biden receives 43.1 to Trump 47.9. |
Biden 43.1, Trump 47.9 |
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>1month |
| Morning Consult |
7/17-7/26 |
1337LV, Party distribution not provided |
Biden 47, Trump 46 |
Repeat |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution or voter ratios within those parties are provided. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Spry Strategies |
7/11-7/16 |
701LV, 33.1D/23.5I/41.5R |
Biden 45.7, Trump 48.8 |
>1month |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The R+8.4 sample oversamples Republicans. Adjusting to the more likely R+2 turnout similar to 2016, assuming 36D/23I/38R. Voter ratios within parties is not provided but can be inferred. Trump had a 8.4 point turnout advantage but only lead by 3.1 points. For this reason we can assume Biden won D's and I's by a bigger margin than Trump won I's and R's. Will assume just for purposes of calculation that Biden's gains came entirely from Independents although is a fiction designed just for the purposes of simplifying the calculation. It will, nevertheless, produce a reasonably accurate adjustment. Assuming Biden and Trump each won their party 90-5, and Biden won Independents 14.5-9, or 62%-38% (a fiction assumed for purposes of calculation), Biden receives 48.5 to Trump 44.7. |
Biden 48.5, Trump 44.7 |
|
>1month |
| Garin, Hart, Yang Research Group |
7/22 |
800LV, Party Distribution not provided |
Biden 47, Trump 43 |
>1month |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Neither party distribution or voter ratios are provided nor can be inferred. Adjustment is not possible. Excluded. |
Excluded |
|
|
| Trafalgar Group |
7/15-7/18 |
1023LV, Party Distribution not Provided |
Trump 49.8, Biden 43.3 |
>1month |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Party distribution & voter ratios of the vote within those parties is not provided. Neither adjustment or verification of the legitimacy of the voter turnout assumption is possible, therefore the poll result's reliability cannot be verified. For these reasons this poll result is excluded from our averages, but included only in the pollster averages above. |
Excluded |
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|
| Gravis Marketing |
7/2 |
513LV, 34D/29I/37R |
Biden 45, Trump 48 |
>1month |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The party distribution of the voter sample matched 2016 almost exactly. No adjustment necessary. |
No adjustment necessary |
|
>1month |
| PPP |
6/25-6/26 |
734RV, 37D/24I/39R |
Biden 49, Trump 45 |
Repeat |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Party distribution matches the 2016 R+2 voter turnout. No adjustment necessary |
No adjustment necessary |
|
Repeat |
| Fox News |
6/20-6/23 |
1013RV, 41D/16I/44R |
Biden 47, Trump 45 |
>1month |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The R+3 turnout model comes close to the R+2 in 2016 but falls well short of the R+7 in 2018. But 2016 is more predictive because it was a presidential year. No adjustment necessary. It is also important to remember that this is a registered voter poll. Democrat leaning registered voters fail to voter at a higher rate than Republican leaning registered voters. For this reason, the margin is likely closer than this or Trump is actually ahead. But Fox News failed to screen for likely voters, so we are stuck with this unlikely result. |
No adjustment necessary |
|
>1month |
| PPP |
6/13-6/15 |
661LV, 38D/23I/40R |
Biden 48, Trump 46 |
Repeat |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
The R+2 poll sample matches the 2016 party distribution exactly. No adjustment necessary. |
No Adjustment Necessary |
|
Repeat |
| TargetSmart |
5/21-5/27 |
321RV, 36D/23I/41R, 43D/7I/49R with leaners |
Biden 40, Trump 44 |
>1month |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
We look at the party distribution with leaners where possible. With leaners, this polls shows an R+6 sample, which may be a bit high. Pew Research Center Georgia party distribution estimates 41R/18I/39D and is trending Republican (2007, 45D/16I/39R). GOP turnout may be higher because of enthusiasm, but it's too early to assume that. GOP did outnumber D in 2016 election exit polls, at 36R/30I/34D. Adjusted result, Biden 41.4, Trump 42.6. |
Biden 41.4, Trump 42.6 |
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>1month |
| Civiqs |
5/16-5/18 |
1339RV, 31D/32I/37R |
Biden 48, Trump 47 |
>1month |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
This poll distribution was 31D/32I/37R, which oversamples Republicans. Adjusting to 2016 turnout, 34D/30I/36R. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 96-2, I's 51-38 and Trump won R's 91-6. Reallocating the vote ratios to the more likely voter turnout of 34D/30I/36R, Biden receives 50.1 to Trump 44.9. |
Biden 50.1, Trump 44.9 |
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>1 month |
| Public Opinion Strategies |
5/4-5/7 |
500LV, 4.38MoE |
Biden 47, Trump 46 |
>1 month |
|
| Political Ref's Take on the above poll |
Poll Distribution: 42R/16I/41D. Pew Research Center Georgia party distribution estimates 41R/18I/39D and is trending Republican (2007, 45D/16I/39R). This poll is in line with that. GOP turnout may be higher because of enthusiasm, but it's too early to assume that. GOP did outnumber D in 2016 election exit polls, at 36R/30I/34D. No adjustment needed. |
No Adjustment |
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>1 month |
