| 218 NEEDED FOR CONTROL |
| 222 |
1 |
212 |
 |
| Solid Dem |
Lean Dem |
Toss Up |
Lean GOP |
Solid GOP |
| 210 |
12 |
|
25 |
187 |
|
| |
| *SEE ANALYSIS OF EACH LEAN AND TOSS UP SEAT BELOW* |
| *Only non-partisan polls are included in this analysis. |
| |
| *KEY ASSUMPTIONS - Pollsters and prognosticators are assuming a massive Democratic turnout. I think it will be big, but more limited than pollsters believe because of failure of Democrats to door knock, register as many new voters as Republicans in key states, lack of rallies, heavy reliance on mail-in voting, which has a substantially higher lost and spoilage rate than in-person voting, and Trump's enthusiasm advantage. |
| |
| Trump will also bring out many voters that polls are not picking up. If you have difficulty imagining this, many of the same people who refuse to wear masks also will not answer a pollster's questions. But at the same time, they would walk over broken glass to vote for Trump. That picture should help you understand this. Many pollsters are ignoring this phenomenon, rendering the polls vulnerable to complete inaccuracy. |
| |
| The riots and protests throughout the nation will benefit Republican Congressional candidates. Many of the Trump districts where Democrats won also have a demographic breakdown that is overwhelmingly white. Just purely as a matter of brute political analysis, it's hard to see many, or perhaps even any, of these seats going to a Democrat when race has been elevated as an issue so angrily by the Democrats and the media. Attacking police will end up backfiring badly on Democrats in these districts. Many white voters who will not vote Trump for personal reasons will at the same time express their anger at this Democratic strategy by voting Republican in House and Senate races. |
| |
| Finally, the Republicans who do not vote for Trump are likely to ticket split, a substantial number, accruing to the benefit of Republicans down the ticket. For these reasons many seats rated toss up by others are actually lean Republican and lean Dem are actually toss ups. |
| |
| The Lean GOP number is so high because the Democrats really picked off just about every possible seat in 2018. 2018 saw the highest mid-term voter turnout since 1914 and it was driven primarily as a negative reaction to Trump, spurred in an unprecedented way by a hostile media and Washington establishment. |
| |
| The first mid-term after a new president is elected is traditionally a bad cycle for the president's party, and this was among the worst. For this reason, many of the seats Republicans lost, but not all of them, should come back to the party as a correction and return to normalcy, particularly when the president's unlikely voters turn out and vote, which they did not in 2018. |
| |
|
| ANALYSIS OF EACH LEAN AND TOSS UP SEAT |
| LINKS: TOSS UP | LEAN R | LEAN D |
| |
| TOSS UPS - 17 (OUR CALLS - 8R, 8D) |
| |
| NOW RATED LEAN R: California 39th - POLL: Cisneros (D) +1. POLL: Cisneros (D) +1. POLL: Kim (R) +10. This is a rematch of the 2018 contest where the Democrat, a former Republican, ran as a single issue candidate (Obamacare) defeating Young Kim 51.6 to 48.4%. No doubt that Kim was hurt by clouds hanging over Trump during the 2018 race relating to the now complete Mueller investigation. This race could go either way. A Republican won the district by 15 points when Trump lost California in a landslide. Governor Newsom also lost this district. Can Young Kim Help Turn Orange County Red Again? |
| |
| NOW RATED LEAN D: Iowa 1st - POLL: Finkenauer (D) +14. POLL: GOP pollster gives 4-poinnt lead to D. This is a district that Obama carried twice by large margins and then Trump won by 3.5%. If Trump can win Iowa again, he likely brings the Republican, Ashley Hinson, with him because Trump brings out some voters who don't normally vote. |
| |
| NOW RATED LEAN R: Georgia 7th - POLL: Dem pollster only gives Dem 3-pont lead. POLL: Trump won this district by 6.3%. Trump will bring some voters out who typically do not vote. The district is 57.6% white, 19.2% black, 11.8% Asian, 0.6% Native American and 17.6% Hispanic. |
| |
| NOW RATED LEAN D: Pennsylvania 8th District - The Democrat won by 9% in 2018 after the district was redrawn in February of 2018. It didn't exist as a district in 2016 so looking at the Trump vote is impossible. This includes Scranton, so Biden may help there. This is likely a toss up right now. |
| |
| NOW RATED LEAN R: Michigan 8th - Trump won this district by 8%. The Democrat won this district by 3.8%. This is genuinely a toss up. If Trump equals his 2016 performance or comes withing 2-3% in Michigan, Republicans should carry this district. The district is 86% white, 6% black, 4% Asian, 5% Hispanic. |
| |
| NOW RATED LEAN R: Michigan 11th - Trump won this district by 5%. The Democrat won this district by 6.5% in 2018. For Republicans to win here, Trump will need to repeat his 2016 performance or come within 2-3% in Michigan. |
| |
| Minnesota 2nd - SPECIAL ELECTION FOR FEBRUARY COULD BE PIVOTAL |
| |
| NOW RATED LEAN D: New York 19th - Trump won this district by 7% and the Democrat won in 2018 by 5.5%. This district is 90% white, 4.2% black, 1.5% Asian and 6.7% Hispanic. |
| |
| NOW RATED LEAN R: POLL: Owens (R) +1. Utah 4th - POLL: McAdams (D) +11. POLL: McAdams (D) +4. Trump won this district by 6.7%. Mia Love the Republican lost by 0.31%. Trump should bring out a few people who otherwise wouldn't vote and this should be a Republican win. |
| |
| NOW RATED LEAN D: Pennsylvania 7th - POLL: Wild (D) +13. Clinton barely won this district in 2016. If Trump brings out voters in Pennsylvania that do not normally vote, and if a significant percentage of suburban Republicans split their ticket, this could go to the Republican. Again, if Trump repeats his 2016 performance it will go Republican. If he comes within 2-3% in Pennsylvania it could also go Republican. |
| |
| NOW RATED LEAN D - Georgia 6th - Trump barely won this district in 2016 by only 1.5% at the same time Tom Price won the seat by 23%. Karen Handel lost the seat by only 1% in 2018 in a very strong year for Democrats. There is a good chance with Trump running on the ballot, he may not even win the district but with Handel's strength there, she should get enough of a boost to take it. This district is 72% white, 13% black, 9% Asian and 12% Hispanic. |
| |
| NOW RATED LEAN R: New Jersey 3rd - Trump won this district by 6% and should bring out some voters who typically don't vote. The Democrat Andrew Kim won narrowly in 2018, 50-48.7%. This seat has been Republican for twenty-three of the last twenty-seven years. The district is 81.4% white, 10.7% black, 3.4% Asian. |
| |
| NOW RATED LEAN D: POLL: Luria (D) +7. Virginia 2nd - The Democratic incumbent won this seat 51.05-48.81% in 2018. Trump won the district by 3% in 2016. The district is 67.9% white, 21.9% black, 5% Asian, 7.2% Hispanic. |
| |
| NOW RATED LEANS R: *New Mexico 2nd -POLL: Herrell (R) +2.0. POLL: Torres-Small (D) +2. Trump won this district by 10. The Democrat won in 2018 by 1.8%. Trump will likely carry this for the Republican who is running in a rematch. The district is 81% white, 6% American Indian/Alaskan Native, 1.6% black. |
| |
| NOW RATED LEANS R: New York 22nd - Trump won this district by 15.5%. The Democrat won in 2018 by 1.8%. The district is 91% white. |
| |
| NOW RATED LEANS D: Virginia 7th - Trump won this district by 6%. The Democrat won the seat in 2018 by 2%. The Republicans have a strong candidate and are likely to take this seat back with Trump bringing out non-traditional voters. |
| |
| NOW RATED LEANS D: Florida 26th - This is a district Clinton won big that the Republicans will likely pick up because of a very strong candidate. |
|
| LEAN R - 17 |
| Return to Top |
| Assessment for Lean R seats - These are seats that the GOP will win even if President Trump loses reelection. If Trump loses by more than 5% nationally, then some of these seats will not go to the GOP. |
| |
| *Illinois 13th - Trump won this district by 5.5%. If he carries it again, the Republican likely wins. The district is 82.7% white, 11.3% black, 3.5% Asian. |
| |
| *Michigan 3rd - POLL: Meijer (R) +7. Trump won this district by 10% and likely helps the Republican because some voters who normally do not vote will vote for Trump. This is Justin Amash's seat, which leans Republican, and is a likely Republican seat. The district is 84.8% white, 9% black and 1.3% Asian. |
| |
| *New York 11th - POLL: Marist (D) found Dem up 1. Trump won this district by 8% and should bring out some voters who typically don't vote. The district is 73.3% white, 8.2% black and 12.8% Asian. The endorsement by the Police Benevolent Association illustrates the unique nature of the 2020 race. |
| |
| *Pennsylvania 1st - Brian Fitzpatrick won this seat in 2016 despite Clinton winning it by 2%. He is likely to win this seat. |
| |
| *South Carolina 1st - POLL: R up 2. Democrat Joe Cunningham barely won this seat 50.6-49.2% in 2018. The Republican will likely benefit greatly by Trump's presence on the ballot. Trump will likely bring out many voters who typically do not vote. Trump won this district by 13.1%. |
| |
| *California 25th - POLL: Dem pollster finds Garcia (R) +1. Clinton won this district by 7 points. This is Katie Hill's vacated seat. The Republican won the special election by 10 points, so he is a strong candidate. He is running against the same candidate. Trump will not win this district but can help a strong Republican candidate, which Garcia is, by bringing out some voters who typically won't vote. |
| |
| *Iowa 3rd - POLL: Axne (D) +6. *With Iowa breaking heavily Trump, this seat goes GOP. Trump won this district by 3.5%. The Democrat won in 2018 by 1.5%. The district is 90% white, 3.7% black, 2.6% Asian and 6.3% Hispanic. Considering how bad 2018 was for Republicans and Trump was not on the ballot, 2020 should be better for the congressional candidate. |
| |
| *Nebraska 2nd - POLL: Bacon (R) +2. The Republican incumbent managed to survive the 2018 election, despite very difficult conditions for Republicans. He won by 2%. Trump won this district by 2%. Trump will bring out some voters who did not vote in 2018. Democrats had a very high turnout and will have trouble exceeding the Republican boost in 2020 because Republicans did not turn out as much in 2018. This district is 79.9% white, 9.9% black, 2.8% Asian and 10.3% Hispanic. |
| |
| *New York 2nd - Trump won this district by 9.1% and King won it by 6.2% in 2018, a difficult year for Republicans. King won the district by 24% when Trump was on the ballot in 2016. |
| |
| *Oklahoma 5th - POLL: Bice (R) +5. POLL: Bice (R) +1. POLL: Bice (R) +4. Trump won this district by 13.4%. The Democrat won by 1.4% in 2018 when national conditions were terrible for Republicans. In 2016, when Trump was running, the Republican won by 20%. This district is 69% white, 14% black, 5% American Indian, 3% Asian and 15% Hispanic. |
| |
| *Pennsylvania 10th - POLL: Perry (R) +3. POLL: Perry (R) +6. Trump won this district by 8.9%. The Republican won in a redistricted district in 2018 by 2.6% when national conditions were very challenging for Republicans. With Trump on the ballot, a candidate who survived 2018 should survive. |
| |
| *Texas 22nd - Trump won this district by 7.9%. The Republican won by 5% in 2018 despite challenging national conditions and by 19% when Trump was on the ballot. This seat should be a hold when Trump is on the ballot. The district is 64% white, 17% Asian, 12% black and 25% Hispanic. |
| |
| *California 21st - POLL: Valadao (R) +11. Clinton won this seat handily by 15.5%. The Republican won the seat that year by 13% but lost in 2018 by 0.8%. The same candidate is running who won in 2016 and barely lost in 2018. With Trump pulling in some unlikely voters, Republicans have a good shot at this seat. |
| |
| *Iowa 2nd - POLL: Miller-Meeks (R) +3. Trump won this district by 4%. 91% white, 3.5% black, 2% Asian, 5% Hispanic. There is a new Dem candidate running to hold a Dem seat. It is a Trump district though. |
| |
| *Minnesota 7th - Trump won this district by 31%. The seat has long been held by the Democrat that is running for reelection, but this time will probably unseat the longtime incumbent. Trump loyalty is so overwhelming here that it should be enough to unseat him, although his refusal to vote for impeachment will help him. There's just no taste for bipartisanship in this climate, and Peterson has lived off the bipartisan vibe for thirty years. |
| |
| *Texas 10th - Trump won this district by 9%. The Republican won by 4% in 2018 during very tough national circumstances. Conditions will be better this time. Should be able to hold the seat. |
| |
| *Texas 24th - Trump won this district by 6%. The Republican, who is not running again, won this district by 3% in very tough national conditions. The current Republican candidate is a good candidate so it's likely they hold the seat with better national conditions than 2018. |
| |
|
| LEAN D - 4 |
| Return to Top |
| |
| Texas 23rd - Will Hurd (R) is leaving this seat. Clinton won this district in 2016 by 4%, O'Rourke won it by 5% in 2018 while Governor Abbott (r) won by 7%. The candidate matters a great deal in this district. |
| |
| Illinois 14th - Trump won this district by 4%. The Democrat won this state by 5% in 2018. The district is 86% white, 3% black, 4% Asian and 12% Hispanic. |
| |
| Maine 2nd - POLL: Golden (D) +23. POLL: Gold (D) +19. POLL: Golden (D) +13. POLL: Golden (D) +18. Trump won this district by 10%. The Democrat won in 2018, when conditions were terrible for Republicans, by only 1.2%. |
| |
| Texas 7th - Clinton won this district. If Trump equals his performance in 2016, he could flip it. |
| |
