See Polls Below 218 NEEDED FOR CONTROL 200 35 200 Solid Dem Lean Dem Toss Up Lean GOP Solid GOP - -   - - *See My Seat-by-Seat Analysis* COMING SOON! Lean Dem   Toss UP   Lean GOP           GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL VOTE The generic congressional vote number has limited utility. One point of value, however, comes in that it demonstrates where the parties stand in relation to the presidential race. It helps us understand how many Republicans, for example, who do not like Trump will still vote Republican down ticket. This particular dynamic should loom large this cycle. Straight Poll Averages Dems/GOP TIED (47.9-47.9) Freedom Window Projection Dems/GOP TIED (47.9-47.9) Pollsters' Averages Chart Political Ref's Averages Chart Click here to see our voter turnout assumptions LATEST POLLS Poll Date Sample Sample Dem GOP Pollster Avg Ref's Avg CYGNAL 10/2-10/3 1500LV, Party ID: 48D/7I/45R. Gender ID: 46/54 M/F. Education ID: 42/58 BA+/NoBA. Age ID: 16/23/17/19/26 18-30-45-55-65+. Racial ID: 69/12/9/3/4 W/B/L/A/O. 47.4 48.6 x   Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score -5, no bias, included in my average. Too many Dems, women and college grads/post-grads offset by too many white ID and Trump favoring age groups. The biases offset very well, balanced sample. Included in my average. 47.4 48.6   x EMERSON 9/29-10/1 1000LV, Party ID: 37D/28I/35R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Education ID: 38/62 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 65/13/15/4/3 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 16/16/16/17/35 18-30-40-50-60+. Region ID: 17/38/22/23 NE/S/MW/W. 47 46 x   Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score -15, insignficant bias, included in my average. Slightly too few Republicans offset by too few college and post-grad degrees and very slightly too high southern vote. See calculations here. 47 46   x NPR/PBS/ Marist 9/27-10/1 1294LV, Party ID: 37D/29I/34R. Gender ID: 49/51 M/F. Education ID: 40/60 BA+/NoBA. Regional ID: 18/23/37/23 NE/MW/S/W. Racial ID: 67/9/13/11 W/B/L/O. Age ID: 15/25/27/33 18-30-45-60+. 47 47 x   Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 10, insignificant bias, included in my average. Too many Democrats offset by slightly too few women/many men, slightly too few college and post-grads, slightly too many south regional ID. The sample balances well, included. 47 47   x GWU/ HarrisX 9/14-9/16 1505RV, INFERRED Party ID: 38D/24I/38R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Education ID: 40/60 Degree/No Degree. 68/13/13/5 White/Black/ Latino/Asian. INFERRED Age ID: 18/25/35/23 18-29/30-44/ 45-64/65+ 50 50 x   Political Ref's Take Overall, this is a good sample. This poll has a bias score of -20 lean to GOP, a mild bias that is acceptible. The poll has slightly too many Republicans and slightly too few 4-year college degrees+, which is offset by too many 18-29 and 65+ and too few 30-64. Included 50 50   x             Rumble   Facebook   X   YouTube   Truth