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NEVADA |
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| POLITICAL REF'S AVG: |
| TIED |
| Harris 48.0, Trump 48.0 |
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| EXIT POLL & 2024 TURNOUT ASSUMPTIONS |
| POLLSTERS: Harris +0.3 |
| Harris 48.0, Trump 47.7 |
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| If a poll is missing, it does not release cross tabs, has too small a sample (<500) or averaged 3 or more off the result in the last two presidential elections. |
| Poll |
Date |
Sample + Party Distribution + Response Bias Adjustments |
Result |
Pollster Avg |
Ref's Avg |
| WALL STREET JOURNAL |
9/28-10/8 |
600RV, Party ID: 40D/21I/39R. Gender ID: 48/48 M/F. Education ID: 33/67 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 57/10/19/8/7 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 28/24/22/23 18-35-50-65+. |
Harris 43, Trump 49 (Included at 50% weight. This is an outlier) |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score 166 toward Dems, severe bias, will adjust. Slightly too many Dems, slightly too many college and post-grad degrees, far too few white ID/too many non-white ID, far too disproportionate pro-Harris age groups to pro-Trump age groups. After adjusting, Harris gets 44.3 to Trump 51.3. See assumptions and calculations here. |
Harris 44.3, Trump 51.3, (Included at 50% weight. This is an outlier) |
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x |
| EMERSON |
10/5-10/8 |
900LV, Party ID: 32D/39I/29R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Education ID: 34/66 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 65/7/17/5/5 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 14/17/14/16/38 18-30-40-50-60+. |
Harris 48, Trump 47 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score 53 towards Dems, small but definite bias, will adjust. Too many Dems/few GOP and too many college and post-grad degrees not sufficiently offset by slight pro-Trump age bias. After adjustments it's a tie, Harris 47.8 to Trump 47.8. See calculations here. |
Harris 47.8, Trump 47.8 |
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x |
| INSIDER ADVANTAGE |
9/29- 9/30 |
800LV, Party ID: 35D/30I/35R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Racial ID: 55/7/30/8 W/B/L/O. Age ID: 8/47/45 8-40-65+. |
Harris 48, Trump 49 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score 110 to Dems, severe bias. All biased categories will be adjusted and averaged with the original topline. See calculations here. Harris gets 47.6, Trump 49.1. |
Harris 47.6, Trump 49.1 |
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| ATLAS INTEL |
9/20- 9/25 |
918LV, Party ID: 39D/33I/28R. Gender ID: 47/52 M/F. Education ID: 31/69 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 56/11/22/7/4 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 16/29/34/21 18-30-45-65+. |
Harris 51, Trump 48 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score -7, no bias. Includued in my average. |
Harris 51, Trump 48 |
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x |
| AmGreatness / TIPP |
9/23-9/25 |
736LV, Party ID: 30D/40I/29R. Gender ID: 52/48 M/F. Education ID: 28/72 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 66/23 W/B+L. Age ID: 9/28/33/30 18-25-45-65+. |
Harris 50, Trump 49 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score -18 to GOP, or insignificant bias, included. There are slightly too few college grads, offset by slightly too many Dems and non-white ID. See assumption and calculations here. Included. |
Harris 50, Trump 49 |
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x |
| RASMUSSEN REPORTS |
9/19-9/22 |
738LV, Party ID: 36D/28I/37R. Gender ID: 49/51 M/F. Inferred Education ID: 36/64 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 66/9/27 W/B/Other. Age ID: 14/16/20/19/30 18-30-40-50-65+. |
Harris 48, Trump 49 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score 16 to Dems, or insignificant bias, included. All categories closely match best expectations for turnout. See assumptions and calculations here. Included. |
Harris 48, Trump 49 |
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| TRAFALGAR GROUP |
9/11-9/13 |
1079LV, Party ID: 32D/37I/31R. Gender ID: 52/48 M/F. Racial ID: 65/18/7/5 |
Harris 45.3, Trump 43.5 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
This poll has a bias score of 10, or no significant bias and is acceptable. Party ID, Gender ID, Education ID and Racial ID match the most likely turnout. Included. |
Harris 45.3, Trump 43.5 |
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| OUTDATED OR REPLACED POLLS BELOW. NOT INCLUDED IN AVERAGES. |
| THE HILL / EMERSON |
9/15-9/18 |
895LV, Party ID: 32D/39I/29R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Education ID: 33/67 BA+/No BA. Racial ID: 65/7/17/5 W/B/L/A. Age ID: 14/24/32/29 18>30>64>65+. |
Harris 48, Trump 48 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
Bias score 46 to Dems, or no significant bias, included in my average. There were too many Dems and four-year degrees offset by too few seniors. Included. |
Harris 48, Trump 48 |
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x |
| INSIDER ADVANTAGE |
8/29-8/31 |
800LV, D+2 (36D/30I/34R, Inferred Electorate) |
Harris 46.5, Trump 47.9 |
X |
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Party Vote: D's 90-4 Harris, I's 49-40 Trump, R's 93-6 Trump. The party distribution was not provided, so I inferred it from the party vote. It looks reasonable. Included. |
Harris 46.5, Trump 47.9 |
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x |
| CNN |
8/23-8/29 |
626LV, 29D/40I/31R, Education level not provided, but can be inferred from the crosstabs. Inferred College degree 36%, Non-college degree 64%. |
Harris 48, Trump 47 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
Non-college grads voted 51-44 Trump, College grads 56-40 Harris. Applying the vote ratio to the more likely voter turnout, Harris 47.8, Trump 47.5. |
Harris 47.8, Trump 47.5 |
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x |
| FOX NEWS |
8/23-8/26 |
720LV, 39D/27I/34R |
Harris 50, Trump 48 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
*See note below |
Harris 43.7, Trump 43.7 |
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x |
| *This is a registered voter poll, so unlikely voters are included. 16% of the included registered voter sample are self-described unlikely voters ("somewhat" or "not at all" likely to vote). The party ID is 44D/15I/41R. Broken down further it is strong partisan 36D/34R and leaners break down as (8D/15I/7R). I's vote 47-33 Trump but somehow Trump trails in the overall. Weighting is questionable. White no college degree votes 51-42 Trump. White college degree votes 52-44 Harris. Total college degree 51-44 Harris. Total no college degree 47-46 Trump. The vote breaks down as D's 93-3 Harris, I's 47-33 Trump, R's 92-4 Trump. Reallocating the party vote to the more likely 41D/12I/40R, Harrris receives 43.7 to Trump's 43.7. |
| NYT/Sienna |
8/12-8/15 |
677LV, 28D/33I/28R, |
Harris 47, Trump 48 |
X |
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| Political Ref's Take |
The even party distribution is close to 2020 results. Education of 65% No College Degree, 35% College Degree are also close to the exit poll. The results are in line with other polls, no adjustment necessary. Included. |
Harris 47, Trump 48 |
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x |
| RASMUSSEN REPORTS |
8/13-8/18 |
980LV, 35D/31I/34R |
Harris 46, Trump 48 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
*See Note Below |
Harris 45.8, Trump 48.1 |
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x |
| *The 2020 vote is 47 Biden 47 Trump, 2 points off the actual 50-48 Biden result. This is explainable by some Biden voters switching and it's consistent with other polling. This is a very educated polling sample, 45% with a college degree, which is 13% higher than 2020. This definitely helps Harris, so it warrents a one point adjustment in party ID to 34D/32I/34R. Parties voted D's 83-15 Harris, I's 42-42 tie and R's 87-12 Trump. Reallocating to the more likely turnout, Harris 45.8 to Trump 48.1 |
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| CURRENT TURNOUT ASSUMPTION: 35D/30I/35R, Republicans have gained in the registration battle, but union turnout promises to be strong again, but who knows which way they vote? It's very difficult to determine likely Nevada turnout. Best to stay with the last turnout in 2020. |
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| 2020 EXIT POLL - 35D/30I/35R without leaners (PDF) without leaners (PDF); Demo - White 65%, Black 7%, Hispanic/Latino 17%, Asian 5%; Age - 18-29(15%), 30-44(24%), 45-64(30%), 65<(30%). College Graduate 32%, No College Degree 68%. Biden won college grads 53-44. Trump won no degree 50-48. |
To see results of 2020 Nevada polls below, click here
Best 2020 Nevada Poll: 3-Way Tie between Trafalgar Group, Emerson College and WPA Intelligence
Polls that got Nevada right: Emerson College, Trafalgar, WPA Intelligence, YouGov, NYT/Sienna, Rasmussen Reports, UNLV Lee Business School, ALG Research
Polls that got Nevada wrong: None |
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