the smarter average
2024 AVERAGES: HOME | NATIONAL VOTE | ELECTORAL COL. | HOUSE | SENATE | Battlegrounds: AZ - GA - NC - MI - PA - WI - NV
         
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>>>THE MOST EXTENSIVE POLL AVERAGES, PERIOD. See Past Projections
POLITICAL REF'S AVG:
TIED
Harris 48.0, Trump 48.0
Sample Size: 5815 Voters
Theoretical Margin of Error: 1.3%
Sample Model: 2020 Exit Poll Turnout Model (Polls that did not use 2020 Exit Poll were adapted to it)
EXIT POLL & 2024 TURNOUT ASSUMPTIONS
POLLSTERS:
Trump +0.3
Harris 47.8, Trump 48.1
I'm excluding the Susquehanna poll from 10/28-10/31 because it's an outlier, includes only 400 likely voters and they do not specialize in the state.
If a poll is missing, it does not release cross tabs, has too small a sample (<500) or averaged 3 or more off the result in the last two presidential elections.
Poll Date Sample + Party Distribution + Response Bias Adjustments Result Margin Poll ster Avg Ref's Avg
ATLAS INTEL 11/3-11/4 707LV, Party: 37D/29I/35R. Gender: 49/50 M/F. Education: 34/66. Race: 59/8/23/7/4. Age: 13/19/34/34 18-30-45-65+ Harris 47.1, Trump 50.2   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score =15, insignificant bias. Bias summary lines 9-11. Included in averages. Harris 47.1, Trump 50.2 +3.1   x
EMERSON 10/30-11/2 840LV, Party: 32D/39I/30R. Gender: 47/52 M/F. Education: 34/66. Race: 65/7/17/5/5 WBLAO. Age: 14/17/14/16/38 18-30-40-50-60+. Harris 48, Trump 48   X  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = -6, insignificant bias. Bias summary lines 9-11. Included in averages. Harris 48, Trump 48 TIED   X
NYT / SIENNA 10/24-11-2 1010LV, Party: 33D/33I/34R. Gender: 50/49. Education: 33/67 BA/<BA. Race: 59/5/19/3/3 WBLAO. Age: 14/22/32/28 18-30-45-65+. Harris 49, Trump 46   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = 32, insignificant bias. Bias summary lines 9-11. Included in averages. Harris 49, Trump 46 +3.0   x
NOBLE PREDICTIVE INSIGHTS 10/28-10/31 593LV, Party: 39D/24I/37R. Gender: 47/53 M/F. Education: 36/64 BA/<BA. Race: 67/17/15 WLO. Age: 34/35/31 18-45-65+. Harris 49, Trump 48   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = -16, insignificant bias. Bias summary lines 9-11. Included in averages. Harris 49, Trump 48 +1.0   x
RASMUSSEN REPORTS 10/25-10/28 767LV, Harris 47, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take Sample and cross-tabs not available. Excluded   x
TRAFALGAR 10/25-10/28 1082LV, Party: 32D/37I/31R. Gender: 52/48 M/F. Race: 65/7/18/5/5 WBLAO. Age: 14/14/16/34/22 18-30-40-50-65+. Harris 47.8, Trump 47.6   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = 22, insignificant bias. Too many many and not enough women, a pro-Trump bias, offset by far too few 50-64, a pro-Trump age group in an average of cross-tabs. Harris 47.8, Trump 47.6 +0.2   x
CNN 10/21-10/26 683LV, All voter IDs inferred, Party: 35D/30I/35R (CNN incorrectly claimed it was 30D/36R. Gender: 42/58 M/F. Education: 35/65 BA+/NoBA. Race: 60/12/17/10 WBLO. Age: 26/19/21/33 18-35-50-65+. Harris 47, Trump 48   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = 224 toward Dems, severe bias, must adjust. Far too many women, college degrees, black ID and pro-Harris age groups. CNN apparently corrected for the biases becuase I reached the same result. Harris 47, Trump 48. Calculations here. Harris 47, Trump 48 +1.0   x
INSIDER ADVANTAGE 10/20-10/21 800LV, All category IDs are inferred. Party ID: 34D/30I/36R. Gender ID: 52/48 M/F. Education ID: 32/68 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 89/3/5/4 W/B/L/O. Age ID: 14/23/42/22 18-30-45-65+. Regional ID: 27/44/29 Urb/Sub/Rural. Harris 47.7, Trump 47.9   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score -20, insignificant bias, included in my averags. Harris 47.7, Trump 47.9 +0.2   x
OUTDATED OR REPLACED POLLS BELOW. NOT INCLUDED IN AVERAGES.
FABRIZIO / ANZALONE 10/8-10/15 600LV. All category IDs are inferred. Party ID: 37D/28I/35R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Education ID: 32/68 BA+/NoBA. Age ID: 21/22/26/31 18-35-50-65+. Harris 47, Trump 49 x    
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 0, no bias, included in my average. Harris 47, Trump 49 +2.0   x
ATLAS INTEL 10/27-10/30 845LV, Party: 36D/29I/35R. Gender: 49/50 M/F. Education: 32/68 BA+/NoBA. Race: 60/8/22/6/4 WBLAO. Age: 16/26/34/24 18-30-45-65+. Harris 46.9, Trump 50.5   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = 50 towards the Dems, insignificant bias, included in my average. Too many Dems and too few college degrees. Harris 46.9, Trump 50.5 +3.6   x
EMERSON 10/29-10/31 700LV, Party: 32D/39I/29R. Gender: 47/52 M/F. Education: 33/67 BA+/NoBA. Race: 65/7/17/5/5. Age: 14/31/16/38 18-30-50-60+ Harris 48, Trump 47      
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = 50 towards the Dems, insignificant bias, included in my average. Too many Dems and too few college degrees. Harris 48, Trump 47 +1.0    
ATLAS INTEL 10/12-10/17 1171LV, Party ID: 39D/26I/36R. Gender ID: 49/50 M/F. Education ID: 31/69 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 61/11/19/7/4 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 16/26/36/22 18-30-45-65+. Regional ID: 51/39/11 Sub/Urb/Rural. Harris 48.1, Trump 48.4 x    
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 41, insignificant bias, included. Too many Dems and too few white ID/too many black and Latino ID. The pro-Harris biases are offset by pro-Trump biases of too few women/many men, slightly too few college and post-grad degrees and slightly disproportionate age groups. Harris 48.1, Trump 48.4     x
WASHINGTON POST / GMU 9/30-10/15 652LV, Party ID: 24D/45I/30R. Gender ID: 50/48 M/F. 32/68 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 59/10/17/5/8 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 20/17/16/22/24 18-30-40-50-65+ Harris 48, Trump 48 x    
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score -37, insignificant bias, included in my averages. Too few Dems and women. Biases are small. Included in my average. Harris 48, Trump 48     x
WALL STREET JOURNAL 9/28-10/8 600RV, Party ID: 40D/21I/39R. Gender ID: 48/48 M/F. Education ID: 33/67 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 57/10/19/8/7 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 28/24/22/23 18-35-50-65+. Harris 43, Trump 49 x    
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 166 toward Dems, severe bias, will adjust. Slightly too many Dems, slightly too many college and post-grad degrees, far too few white ID/too many non-white ID, far too disproportionate pro-Harris age groups to pro-Trump age groups. After adjusting, Harris gets 44.3 to Trump 51.3. See assumptions and calculations here. Harris 44.3, Trump 51.3, (Included at 50% weight. This is an outlier)     x
EMERSON 10/5-10/8 900LV, Party ID: 32D/39I/29R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Education ID: 34/66 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 65/7/17/5/5 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 14/17/14/16/38 18-30-40-50-60+. Harris 48, Trump 47 x    
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 53 towards Dems, small but definite bias, will adjust. Too many Dems/few GOP and too many college and post-grad degrees not sufficiently offset by slight pro-Trump age bias. After adjustments it's a tie, Harris 47.8 to Trump 47.8. See calculations here. Harris 47.8, Trump 47.8     x
AmGreatness / TIPP 9/23-9/25 736LV, Party ID: 30D/40I/29R. Gender ID: 52/48 M/F. Education ID: 28/72 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 66/23 W/B+L. Age ID: 9/28/33/30 18-25-45-65+. Harris 50, Trump 49 x    
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score -18 to GOP, or insignificant bias, included. There are slightly too few college grads, offset by slightly too many Dems and non-white ID. See assumption and calculations here. Included. Harris 50, Trump 49     x
RASMUSSEN REPORTS 9/19-9/22 738LV, Party ID: 36D/28I/37R. Gender ID: 49/51 M/F. Inferred Education ID: 36/64 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 66/9/27 W/B/Other. Age ID: 14/16/20/19/30 18-30-40-50-65+. Harris 48, Trump 49 x    
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 16 to Dems, or insignificant bias, included. All categories closely match best expectations for turnout. See assumptions and calculations here. Included. Harris 48, Trump 49      
INSIDER ADVANTAGE 9/29- 9/30 800LV, Party ID: 35D/30I/35R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Racial ID: 55/7/30/8 W/B/L/O. Age ID: 8/47/45 8-40-65+. Harris 48, Trump 49 x    
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 110 to Dems, severe bias. All biased categories will be adjusted and averaged with the original topline. See calculations here. Harris gets 47.6, Trump 49.1. Harris 47.6, Trump 49.1      
ATLAS INTEL 9/20- 9/25 918LV, Party ID: 39D/33I/28R. Gender ID: 47/52 M/F. Education ID: 31/69 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 56/11/22/7/4 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 16/29/34/21 18-30-45-65+. Harris 51, Trump 48 x    
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score -7, no bias. Includued in my average. Harris 51, Trump 48     x
TRAFALGAR 10/10-10/13 1088LV, Party ID: 32D/37I/31R. Gender ID: 52/48 M/F. Racial ID: 65/7/18/5/5 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 14/14/16/34/22 18-30-40-50-65+ Harris 46, Trump 45 x    
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score -48, insignificant bias, will include in my average. Slightly too many Dems and Latinos offset by too many 50-64 age group and too many men/few women. Harris 46, Trump 45     x
TRAFALGAR GROUP 9/11-9/13 1079LV, Party ID: 32D/37I/31R. Gender ID: 52/48 M/F. Racial ID: 65/18/7/5 Harris 45.3, Trump 43.5 x    
Political Ref's Take This poll has a bias score of 10, or no significant bias and is acceptable. Party ID, Gender ID, Education ID and Racial ID match the most likely turnout. Included. Harris 45.3, Trump 43.5      
THE HILL / EMERSON 9/15-9/18 895LV, Party ID: 32D/39I/29R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Education ID: 33/67 BA+/No BA. Racial ID: 65/7/17/5 W/B/L/A. Age ID: 14/24/32/29 18>30>64>65+. Harris 48, Trump 48 x    
Political Ref's Take Bias score 46 to Dems, or no significant bias, included in my average. There were too many Dems and four-year degrees offset by too few seniors. Included. Harris 48, Trump 48     x
INSIDER ADVANTAGE 8/29-8/31 800LV, D+2 (36D/30I/34R, Inferred Electorate) Harris 46.5, Trump 47.9 X    
  Party Vote: D's 90-4 Harris, I's 49-40 Trump, R's 93-6 Trump. The party distribution was not provided, so I inferred it from the party vote. It looks reasonable. Included. Harris 46.5, Trump 47.9     x
CNN 8/23-8/29 626LV, 29D/40I/31R, Education level not provided, but can be inferred from the crosstabs. Inferred College degree 36%, Non-college degree 64%. Harris 48, Trump 47 x    
Political Ref's Take Non-college grads voted 51-44 Trump, College grads 56-40 Harris. Applying the vote ratio to the more likely voter turnout, Harris 47.8, Trump 47.5. Harris 47.8, Trump 47.5     x
FOX NEWS 8/23-8/26 720LV, 39D/27I/34R Harris 50, Trump 48 x    
Political Ref's Take *See note below Harris 43.7, Trump 43.7     x
*This is a registered voter poll, so unlikely voters are included. 16% of the included registered voter sample are self-described unlikely voters ("somewhat" or "not at all" likely to vote). The party ID is 44D/15I/41R. Broken down further it is strong partisan 36D/34R and leaners break down as (8D/15I/7R). I's vote 47-33 Trump but somehow Trump trails in the overall. Weighting is questionable. White no college degree votes 51-42 Trump. White college degree votes 52-44 Harris. Total college degree 51-44 Harris. Total no college degree 47-46 Trump. The vote breaks down as D's 93-3 Harris, I's 47-33 Trump, R's 92-4 Trump. Reallocating the party vote to the more likely 41D/12I/40R, Harrris receives 43.7 to Trump's 43.7.
NYT/Sienna 8/12-8/15 677LV, 28D/33I/28R, Harris 47, Trump 48 X    
Political Ref's Take The even party distribution is close to 2020 results. Education of 65% No College Degree, 35% College Degree are also close to the exit poll. The results are in line with other polls, no adjustment necessary. Included. Harris 47, Trump 48     x
RASMUSSEN REPORTS 8/13-8/18 980LV, 35D/31I/34R Harris 46, Trump 48 x    
Political Ref's Take *See Note Below Harris 45.8, Trump 48.1     x
*The 2020 vote is 47 Biden 47 Trump, 2 points off the actual 50-48 Biden result. This is explainable by some Biden voters switching and it's consistent with other polling. This is a very educated polling sample, 45% with a college degree, which is 13% higher than 2020. This definitely helps Harris, so it warrents a one point adjustment in party ID to 34D/32I/34R. Parties voted D's 83-15 Harris, I's 42-42 tie and R's 87-12 Trump. Reallocating to the more likely turnout, Harris 45.8 to Trump 48.1
 
CURRENT TURNOUT ASSUMPTION: 35D/30I/35R, Republicans have gained in the registration battle, but union turnout promises to be strong again, but who knows which way they vote? It's very difficult to determine likely Nevada turnout. Best to stay with the last turnout in 2020.
 
2020 EXIT POLL - 35D/30I/35R without leaners (PDF) without leaners (PDF); Demo - White 65%, Black 7%, Hispanic/Latino 17%, Asian 5%; Age - 18-29(15%), 30-44(24%), 45-64(30%), 65<(30%). College Graduate 32%, No College Degree 68%. Biden won college grads 53-44. Trump won no degree 50-48.

To see results of 2020 Nevada polls below, click here

Best 2020 Nevada Poll: 3-Way Tie between Trafalgar Group, Emerson College and WPA Intelligence

Polls that got Nevada right: Emerson College, Trafalgar, WPA Intelligence, YouGov, NYT/Sienna, Rasmussen Reports, UNLV Lee Business School, ALG Research

Polls that got Nevada wrong: None

 
         
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