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ARIZONA |
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| POLITICAL REF'S AVG: |
| Trump +2.6 |
| Harris 46.7, Trump 49.3 |
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| EXIT POLL & 2024 TURNOUT ASSUMPTIONS |
| POLLSTERS: Trump +2.6 |
| Harris 46.9, Trump 49.5 |
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| If a poll is missing, it does not release cross tabs, has too small of a sample (<500) or averaged 3 or more off the result in the last two presidential elections. |
| EXCLUDED POLLS: |
| GSG/NSOR had a sample of less than 500 respondents, which I do not include (400). |
| High Ground's poll for HPHO-TV did not release it's sample data and cross-tabs. The point of this aggregate is to increase reliability based on merging data from every pollster into a single voter sample based on 2020 exit polls. I need a poll's cross-tabs and sample data to determine if it comports with 2020 exit polls, or if it diverges, to adjust it so that it does. |
| POLL RESULT SUMMARY (SEE FULL RESULTS & EXPLANATIONS BELOW) |
| Poll |
Date |
Sample + Party Distribution |
Result |
Pollster Avg |
Ref's Avg |
| TRAFALGAR GROUP |
10/10-10/13 |
1090LV, Party ID: 32D/35I/33R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Racial ID: 71/3/19/2/5 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 14/14/14/35/23 18-30-40-50-65+. |
Harris 46, Trump 47.5 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score 28, no bias, induded. Too many Dems and too few white ID offset by slightly pro-Trump age groups. Sample balances well. Included. |
Harris 46, Trump 47.5 |
|
x |
| NYT / SIENNA |
10/7-10/10 |
808LV, Party ID: 27D/34I/32R. Gender ID: 48/51 M/F. Education ID: 39/61 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 64/2/19/1/3 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 14/20/30/31 18-30-45-65+. |
Harris 46, Trump 51 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score -21, insignificant bias, included in my average. There are not enough college and post-grad degrees, a GOP bias, but that is offset by too few white ID. The sample balances well, included. |
Harris 46, Trump 51 |
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x |
| EMERSON |
10/5-10/8 |
1000LV, Party ID: 30D/36I/34R, Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Education ID: 36/64 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 71/2/19/2/5 W/B/L/A/O. 16/27/18/39 18-30-50-60+. |
Harris 47, Trump 49 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score -25, insignificant bias. Included in my average. Too few college and post-grad degrees offset by slightly too few GOP and too few white ID. Included. |
Harris 47, Trump 49 |
|
x |
| WALL STREET JOURNAL |
9/28-10/8 |
600RV, Party ID: 40D/15I/45R. Gender 46/50. Education ID: 37/63 BA+/NoBA. Age ID: 27/23/22/27 18-35-50-65+. Racial ID: 67/4/23/2/4 W/B/L/A/O. |
Harris 48, Trump 46 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score 84 towards Dems, severe bias. Far too few white ID/too many non-white ID and heavily disproportionate pro-Harris age groups to pro-Trump age groups. These pro-Harris biases not offset by too few college and post-grad degrees, a pro-Trump bias. After adjusting, Harris gets 49.1 to Trump 47.5. See calculations here. |
Harris 49.1, Trump 47.5 |
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x |
| FABRIZIO- ANZALONE |
9/24-10/1 |
600LV, Inferred Party ID: 33D/31I/36R |
Harris 48, Trump 50 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score 26, insignificant bias, included in my average. A few too many Dems and women, but not much. Included. |
Harris 48, Trump 50 |
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x |
| INSIDER ADVANTAGE |
9/29-9/30 |
800LV, Party ID: 35D/26I/39R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. 71/6/17/6 W/B/L/O. Age ID: 10/41/49 18-40-65+. |
Harris 48, Trump 49 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score 27 to GOP, no significant bias, included in my average. |
Harris 48, Trump 49 |
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x |
| USA TODAY / SUFFOLK |
9/21-9/24 |
500LV, Party ID: 30D/35I/35R. Gender ID: 48/49/3 M/F/NB. Education ID: 39/61 BA+/NoBA. Age ID: 6/14/25/28/25 18-25-35-50-65+. Racial ID: 69/4/18/7 W/B/L/Other. |
Harris 42, Trump 48 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score 37 to Dems, or insignificant bias. Too many Dems and too few white ID offset by too few women and too few college degree/post-grads. Balances well. See assumptions and calculations here. Included |
Harris 42, Trump 48 |
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x |
| FOX NEWS |
9/20-9/24 |
764LV, Party ID: 43D/12I/45R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Education ID: 37/63 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 78/3/19 W/B/Other. Age ID: 36/64 <45/>45 |
Harris 48, Trump 51 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score -34 to GOP, insignificant bias, included. Too many Dems offset by too many college degrees and post-grads and also too many white ID. See assumptions and calculations here. Sample balances well, included. |
Harris 48, Trump 51 |
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x |
| MARIST |
9/19-9/24 |
1264LV, (for crosstabs, go here, click "Suvey Data") Party ID: 34D/37I/38R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Age ID: 38/62 18-45+. Education ID: 41/59 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 66/7/20/7 W/B/L/Other |
Harris 49, Trump 50 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score 184 to Dems, severe bias, will adjust. Too many Dems and and too few white ID. All other ID categories are reasonable. Will adjust both categories and average, see assumptions and calculations here. Adjusted result, Harris |
Harris 46.9, Trump 50.2 |
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x |
| RASMUSSEN REPORTS |
9/19-9/22 |
1071LV, Party ID: 30D/34I/36R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Racial ID: 70/7/23 W/B/Other. Age ID: 16/13/14/26/31 18-30-40-50-65+. |
Harris 47, Trump 49 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score 205 to Dems, severe bias, will adjust. Sample too Democratic, too educated and too few White ID. Averaged corrected results for each category, see assumptions and calculations here. Final adjusted result, Harris 45.9, Trump 49.7. |
Harris 45.9, Trump 49.7 |
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x |
| OUTDATED POLLS. NO LONGER INCLUDE IN THE AVERAGES. |
| EMERSON |
9/27-9/28 |
920LV, Party ID: 30D/36I/34R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Education ID: 36/64 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 71/3/19/2/5 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 16/27/18/39 18-30-50-60+. |
Harris 47, Trump 50 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score 3, no bias. Too few Republicans and too few white ID offset by too few college degrees and post-grads. Sample balances well. Included |
Harris 47, Trump 50 |
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x |
| NYT / SIENNA |
9/17-9/21 |
713LV, Party ID: 31D/30I/39R. Gender ID: 47/53 M/F. Education ID: 39/60 BA+/No BA. Race ID: 65/18/15 W/L/Other. Age ID: 13/21/31/33 18>30>45>65+ |
Harris 45, Trump 50 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
Poll bias score is -4, no bias. Slightly too many GOP, 65+ and too few BA+ offset by too few white ID and too many women. Overall it balances well. Included |
Harris 45, Trump 50 |
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x |
| THE HILL / EMERSON |
9/15-9/18 |
868LV, Party ID: 30D/39I/34R. Gender ID: 47/52 M/F. Education ID: 36/64 BA+/No BA. Racial ID: 71/3/2/19 W/B/A/L. Estimated Age ID: 16/21/35/29 18>30>45>65+ |
Harris 48, Trump 49 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
Poll bias score -8.5, no significant bias, included. Too few GOP and men offset by too few 4-year degrees and white ID. Included |
Harris 48, Trump 49 |
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x |
| TRAFALGAR GROUP |
9/11-9/12 |
1088LV, Party ID: 32D/35I/33R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Racial ID: 71/19/3/2 White/Latino/ Black/Asian. Inferred Party Vote: D 95-3 Harris, I 44-38 Trump, R 93-6 (See Party ID Calculator). |
45.5 Harris, 47.1 Trump |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
This poll has a bias score of 100, or SEVERE BIAS towards the Dems and must be adjusted. Applying the inferred Party vote of D 95-3 Harris, I 44-38 Trump, R 93-6 Trump, to the more likely Party ID of 31D/33I/36R. Harris gets 44.0 to Trump 49.0. |
44.0 Harris, 49.0 Trump |
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x |
| AMERICAN GREATNESS / TIPP |
9/3-9/5 |
*See row below |
Harris 48, Trump 48 |
x |
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| 949LV, 27D/38I/35R, Strictly Online Survey, Education: 68% some college, 27% with a graduate degree, a high percentage. This sample is likely too educated, but hard to draw the line the way the sample is reported. |
| Political Ref's Take |
The sample is almost certainly too educated and it's a strictly online survey. Likely missing some Trump vote, but hard to adjust the way it's reported. Included |
Harris 48, Trump 48 |
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x |
| INSIDER ADVANTAGE |
8/29-8/31 |
800LV, 35D/26I/39R |
Harris 48, Trump 49 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
The turnout is reasonable. See my turnout assumption above. |
Harris 48, Trump 49 |
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x |
| CNN |
8/23-8/29 |
30D/37I/34R, Inferred Education: 35% College Degree, 65% No Degree |
Harris 44, Trump 49 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
Education vote: College grads voted 50-44 Harris, non-college grads voted 50-47 Trump. These are reasonable, included. |
Harris 44, Trump 49 |
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x |
| MORNING CONSULT |
8/23-8/27 |
776LV, Party ID: Unavailable; Education Profile: Unavailable. |
Harris 48, Trump 48 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
Morning Consult does not provide internals or charges $1500 for them. They should NOT be trusted. Excluded. |
Excluded |
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| FOX NEWS |
8/23-8/26 |
1014RV, Party ID: 33D/33I/33R; Inferred Education ID: 45% College Degree, 55% No College Degree. |
Harris 49, Trump 48 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
*See Row Below |
Harris 45.6, Trump 47.8 |
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x |
| This is a BAD sample. Too many Dems and too many college degrees. Party Vote: D's 94-3 Harris, 45-36 Trump, 92-6 Trump. Apply party vote to more likely 31D/33I/36R, Harris 43.2 to Trump 48.9. Education vote: College Degree 56-40 Harris; No Degree 51-43 Trump. Apply education vote to more likely 60/40 split on college degree. Harris 48 to Trump 46.6. Averaging corrected polls after correcting for education and party ID biases, Harris 45.6 to Trump 47.8. |
| SPRY STRATEGIES |
8/14-8/20 |
600LV, 32D/20I/42R |
Harris 47.6, Trump 48.7 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
Many Republican voters are Independents in Arizona, so it looks like they just included leaners as Republicans. The Trump approval and ballot question are in line with other pollstes. Included |
Harris 47.6, Trump 48.7 |
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x |
| EMERSON COLLEGE |
8/25-8/28 |
720LV, Party ID: 30D/36I/34R, Education Profile: College grad 36%, No Degree 64% |
Harris 47, Trump 50 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
Reasonable party ID and education profile. Included |
Harris 47, Trump 50 |
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x |
| Noble Predictive Insights |
8/12-8/16 |
1003RV, Inferred party distribution from crosstabs of 33D/31I/36R |
Harris 44, Trump 47 |
x |
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| Political Ref's Take |
How the parties voted: D voted 88-9 Harris, I's voted 41-38 Trump, R's voted 89-8 Trump. The inferred party distribution shown above is reasonably close to the most likely distribution, so I will include this result. |
Harris 44, Trump 47 |
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x |
| Rasmussen Reports |
8/13-8/17 |
1187LV |
Harris 45, Trump 47 |
x |
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| Political Ref's take on the above poll |
The party distribution is hidden behind a paywall. The distibution, however, looks close to the most likely vote as I see it. I will include this in my average. |
Harris 45, Trump 47 |
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x |
| NYT/Sienna |
8/8-8/15 |
677LV, 33D/29I/31R |
Harris 50, Trump 45 |
x |
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| Political Ref's take on the above poll |
How the parties voted: D voted 93-5 for Harris, I voted 50-40 for Harris, R voted 92-7 Trump. Applying these vote ratios to the much more likely voter turnout of 31D/33I/36R, you get the following result. |
Harris 47.9, Trump 47.9 |
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x |
| Trafalgar Group |
8/6-8/8 |
1000LV, 30.3D/35.3I/34.4R |
Harris 46.5, Trump 47.7 |
x |
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| Political Ref's take on the above poll |
This is a reasonable party distribution. No adjustment necessary. |
Harris 46.5, Trump 47.7 |
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x |
| FULL POLL RESULTS AND EXPLANATIONS OF ADJUSTMENTS |
| Poll |
Date |
Sample + Party Distribution |
Result |
Pollster Avg |
Ref's Avg |
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| MY CURRENT TURNOUT ASSUMPTION: 31D/33I/36R. I have allocated five points from the I column to Dems and 1 from the R column to R's. Many Dems have indentified as Indepedents in the past, and moving them to the I column makes more sense with the polls. |
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| 2020 EXIT POLL - 26D/39I/35R without leaners (PDF); Demo - White 74%, Black 2%, Hispanic/Latino 19%, Asian 2%; Age - 18-29(14%), 30-44(24%), 45-64(37%), 65<(25%). Education: 41% 4-Year College Degree, 59% No Degree |
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To see results of 2020 Arizona polls below, click here
Best 2020 Arizona Polls: #1 Data Orbital and #2 RMG Research
Polls that got Arizona right: Data Orbital, RMG Research, Monmouth, YouGov, Emerson, Ipsos
Polls that got Arizona wrong: Rasmussen Reports, Trafalgar Group, Susquehenna Polling, Atlas Intel, Marist College |
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