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2024 AVERAGES: HOME | NATIONAL VOTE | ELECTORAL COL. | HOUSE | SENATE | Battlegrounds: AZ - GA - NC - MI - PA - WI - NV
         
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>>>LOOK AT MY PAST PROJECTIONS. THE MOST EXTENSIVE POLL AVERAGES, PERIOD.
POLITICAL REF'S AVG:
Trump +3.4
Harris 45.5, Trump 48.9
Sample Size: 6081 Voters
Theoretical Margin of Error: 1.3%
Sample Model: 2020 Exit Poll Turnout Model (Polls that did not use the 2020 Exit Poll model were adapted to it, which justifies a margin of error).
EXIT POLL & 2024 TURNOUT ASSUMPTIONS
POLLSTERS:
Trump +3.1
Harris 45.8, Trump 48.9
If a poll is missing, it does not release cross tabs, has too small of a sample (<500) or averaged 3 or more off the result in the last two presidential elections.
EXCLUDED POLLS:
POLL RESULT SUMMARY (SEE FULL RESULTS & EXPLANATIONS BELOW)
Poll Date Sample + Party Distribution Result Margin Pollster Avg Ref's Avg
EMERSON 10/30-11/2 900LV, Party: 30D/36I/34R. Gender: 48/52. Education: 36/64. Race: 71/3/19/2/5 WBLAO. Age: 16/13/14/18/39 18-30-40-50-60+. Harris 48.0, Trump 50.0   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = -55 to GOP, definite bias. Bias summary in lines 9-11. After adjustement, Harris 48.2 to Trump 50.0. Harris 48.2, Trump 50.0 +1.8   x
NYT / SIENNA 10/25-11/2 1025LV, Party 29D/28I/34R. Gender: 47/52 M/F. Education: 39/61. Race: 66/17/2/2/2 WBLAO. Age: 13/20/32/33 18-30-45-65+. Harris 44.0, Trump 48.0   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score: 2, no bias. Bias summary in lines 9-11. Included in the average. Harris 44.0, Trump 48.0 +4.0   x
INSIDER ADVANTAGE 11/1- 11/2 800LV Harris 46, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take Neither sample or cross-tabs provided. Excluded      
ATLAS INTEL 11/1- 11/2 967LV, Party: 31D/28I/41R, Gender: 45/54 M/F. Education: 51/49 BA/<BA. Race: 77/2/14/2/5. Age: 11/25/38/27 18-30-45-65+. Harris 45.1, Trump 51.9   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = 35, insignificant bias. Bias summary in lines 9-11. Included in the average. Harris 45.1, Trump 51.9 +6.8   x
NOBLE PREDICTIVE INSIGHTS 10/28-10/30 775LV, Party: 31D/31I/38R. Gender: 46/54 M/F. Education: 35/65. Race: 70/18/12 WLO. Age: 16/16/36/32 18-35-45-65+. Harris 47, Trump 48   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = -38, insignificant bias. Bias summary in lines 9-11. Included in the average. Harris 47, Trump 48 +1.0   x
RASMUSSEN REPORTS 10/25-10/29 803LV Harris 46, Trump 48   x  
Political Ref's Take Neither sample or cross-tabs available. Excluded     x
DATA ORBITAL (#1 2020 Arizona Poll) 10/26-10/28 550LV, Party ID: 32D/25I/39R. Gender ID: 47.5/52.5 M/F. Education ID: 40/60 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 71/4/20/3/3 WBLAO. Age ID: 21/21/25/33 18-35-50-65+. Harris 41.9, Trump 49.7   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = -3, no bias. Included in my average. Only notable bias is too few white ID, but it's a small bias. Included in my average. Harris 41.9, Trump 49.7 +7.8   x
CNN 10/21-10/26 781LV, Party ID: 34D/32I/34R. Inferred Gender ID: 50/50 M/F. Inferred Education ID: 45/55 BA+/NoBA. Inferred Racial ID: 70/4/24/0/5 W/B/L/A/O. Inferred Age ID: 24/22/25/29 18-35-50-65+. Harris 48, Trump 47   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = 151 to Dems, severe bias, must adjust. Too many Dems, too many college and post-grad degrees, too few white ID, too many 18-49, groups favoring Harris. These pro-Harris biases are not offset by too few women, the one pro-Trump Bias. After adjustment using cross-tabs with a more likely sample, Harris 46.6 to Trump 46.7. See calculations here. Harris 46.6, Trump 46.7 +0.1   x
TRAFALGAR 10/24-10/26 1094LV, Party ID: 32D/35I/33R. 48/52 M/F. 71/3/19/2/5 WBLAO. Age ID: 21/21/35/23 18-35-50-65+ Harris 46.0, Trump 48.1   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = 43 towards Dems. Too many Dems and too few white ID with no offsetting biases. Included in my average. Harris 46.0, Trump 48.1 +2.1   x
OUTDATED POLLS. NO LONGER INCLUDE IN THE AVERAGES.
MARIST 10/17-10/22 1193LV. Party ID: 35D/25I/38R. Gender ID: 51/49 M/F. Education ID: 41/59 BA+/NoBA. Age ID: 18/18/64 18-35-45+. Racial ID: 65/3/20/12 W/B/L/O. Harris 49, Trump 50   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 69 toward Dems, definite bias, will adjust. Too few GOP and far too few white ID. These pro-Harris biases were not offset by too few women/many men, a pro-Trump bias. The cross-tabs showed a virtual tie among white ID and the same with non-white ID. Both groups split virtually 50/50. As a result, adjusting the very low white ID made little difference in the adjustment. Harris gets 49 to Trump 50. Harris 49, Trump 50 +1.0   x
INSIDER ADVANTAGE 10/20-10/21 800LV, All IDs are Inferred. Party ID: 31D/29I/40R. Gender ID: 48/50.5 M/F. Racial ID: 72/4/20/0/5 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 23/50/27 18-40-65+. Harris 47, Trump 50   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score -42.5 towards GOP, insignificant bias, included in my averages. Too many GOP, too few women and too few 18-39. These pro-Trump biases are offset partially by too few white ID/too many Black and Latino ID. The sample balances well enough, included. Harris 47, Trump 50 +3.0   x
WASHINGTON POST / GMU 9/30-10/15 580LV. Party ID: 25D/43I/32R. Gender ID: 48/52. Education ID: 42/58. Racial ID: 64/6/23/1/6 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 20/15/12/24/29 18-30-40-50-65+ Harris 46, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 108 towards Dems, severe bias, must adjust. Far too few white ID and too many black and Latino ID. Too many 18-29 ID not offset by a pro-Trump ID. Washington Post did not provide cross-tabs for Arizona, but such a severe bias (10% too few white ID not offset) typically will result in a shift of at least one point. Harris gets 46.0 to Trump 50.0. Harris 46, Trump 50 +4.0   x
CBS / YOUGOV 10/11-10/16 1435LV, All IDs are inferred. Party ID: 31D/33I/36R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Racial ID: 72/2/20/2 W/B/L/O. Age ID: 38/38/24 18-45-65+. Harris 48, Trump 51   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score -24, insignificant bias, included in my average. There is a pro-Trump age distribution, but YouGov used a very large 18-44 age group here, and this made the bias values less reliable because the age group is unconventionally large. Harris 48, Trump 51 +3.0   x
NYT / SIENNA 10/7-10/10 808LV, Party ID: 27D/34I/32R. Gender ID: 48/51 M/F. Education ID: 39/61 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 64/2/19/1/3 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 14/20/30/31 18-30-45-65+. Harris 46, Trump 51   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score -21, insignificant bias, included in my average. There are not enough college and post-grad degrees, a GOP bias, but that is offset by too few white ID. The sample balances well, included. Harris 46, Trump 51 +5.0   x
EMERSON 10/5-10/8 1000LV, Party ID: 30D/36I/34R, Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Education ID: 36/64 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 71/2/19/2/5 W/B/L/A/O. 16/27/18/39 18-30-50-60+. Harris 47, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score -25, insignificant bias. Included in my average. Too few college and post-grad degrees offset by slightly too few GOP and too few white ID. Included. Harris 47, Trump 49 +2.0   x
WALL STREET JOURNAL 9/28-10/8 600RV, Party ID: 40D/15I/45R. Gender 46/50. Education ID: 37/63 BA+/NoBA. Age ID: 27/23/22/27 18-35-50-65+. Racial ID: 67/4/23/2/4 W/B/L/A/O. Harris 48, Trump 46   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 84 towards Dems, severe bias. Far too few white ID/too many non-white ID and heavily disproportionate pro-Harris age groups to pro-Trump age groups. These pro-Harris biases not offset by too few college and post-grad degrees, a pro-Trump bias. After adjusting, Harris gets 49.1 to Trump 47.5. See calculations here. Harris 49.1, Trump 47.5 +1.6   x
FABRIZIO- ANZALONE 9/24-10/1 600LV, Inferred Party ID: 33D/31I/36R Harris 48, Trump 50   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 26, insignificant bias, included in my average. A few too many Dems and women, but not much. Included. Harris 48, Trump 50 +2.0   x
ATLAS INTEL 10/12-10/17 1440LV, Party ID: 35D/29I/37R. Gender ID: 47/52 M/F. Education ID: 51/49 BA+/NoBa. Racial ID: 74/2/16/2/6 W/B/L/A/O. 12/21/39/28 18-30-45-65+. Regional ID: 54/34/12 Sub/Urb/Rural. Harris 49.3, Trump 49.2   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Spreadsheet 177 towards Dems, severe bias, must adjust. Slightly too many Dems, far too many college and post-grad degrees, too many urban and too few suburban voters. These pro-Harris biases were not offset by too few 18-29 and too many 45-64, both pro-Trump biases. After adjustment, Harris gets 48.0 to Trump 49.3. See calculations here. Harris 48.0, Trump 49.3 +1.3   x
TRAFALGAR GROUP 10/10-10/13 1090LV, Party ID: 32D/35I/33R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Racial ID: 71/3/19/2/5 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 14/14/14/35/23 18-30-40-50-65+. Harris 46, Trump 47.5   x  
Political Ref's Take

Poll Bias Score 28, no bias, included. Too many Dems and too few white ID offset by slightly pro-Trump age groups. Sample balances well. Included.

Harris 46, Trump 47.5 +1.5   x
INSIDER ADVANTAGE 9/29-9/30 800LV, Party ID: 35D/26I/39R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. 71/6/17/6 W/B/L/O. Age ID: 10/41/49 18-40-65+. Harris 48, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 27 to GOP, no significant bias, included in my average. Harris 48, Trump 49     x
USA TODAY / SUFFOLK 9/21-9/24 500LV, Party ID: 30D/35I/35R. Gender ID: 48/49/3 M/F/NB. Education ID: 39/61 BA+/NoBA. Age ID: 6/14/25/28/25 18-25-35-50-65+. Racial ID: 69/4/18/7 W/B/L/Other. Harris 42, Trump 48   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 37 to Dems, or insignificant bias. Too many Dems and too few white ID offset by too few women and too few college degree/post-grads. Balances well. See assumptions and calculations here. Included Harris 42, Trump 48     x
FOX NEWS 9/20-9/24 764LV, Party ID: 43D/12I/45R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Education ID: 37/63 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 78/3/19 W/B/Other. Age ID: 36/64 <45/>45 Harris 48, Trump 51   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score -34 to GOP, insignificant bias, included. Too many Dems offset by too many college degrees and post-grads and also too many white ID. See assumptions and calculations here. Sample balances well, included. Harris 48, Trump 51     x
MARIST 9/19-9/24 1264LV, (for cross-tabs, go here, click "Survey Data") Party ID: 34D/37I/38R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Age ID: 38/62 18-45+. Education ID: 41/59 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 66/7/20/7 W/B/L/Other Harris 49, Trump 50   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 184 to Dems, severe bias, will adjust. Too many Dems and and too few white ID. All other ID categories are reasonable. Will adjust both categories and average, see assumptions and calculations here. Adjusted result, Harris Harris 46.9, Trump 50.2     x
RASMUSSEN REPORTS 9/19-9/22 1071LV, Party ID: 30D/34I/36R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Racial ID: 70/7/23 W/B/Other. Age ID: 16/13/14/26/31 18-30-40-50-65+. Harris 47, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 205 to Dems, severe bias, will adjust. Sample too Democratic, too educated and too few White ID. Averaged corrected results for each category, see assumptions and calculations here. Final adjusted result, Harris 45.9, Trump 49.7. Harris 45.9, Trump 49.7     x
EMERSON 9/27-9/28 920LV, Party ID: 30D/36I/34R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Education ID: 36/64 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 71/3/19/2/5 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 16/27/18/39 18-30-50-60+. Harris 47, Trump 50   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 3, no bias. Too few Republicans and too few white ID offset by too few college degrees and post-grads. Sample balances well. Included Harris 47, Trump 50     x
NYT / SIENNA 9/17-9/21 713LV, Party ID: 31D/30I/39R. Gender ID: 47/53 M/F. Education ID: 39/60 BA+/No BA. Race ID: 65/18/15 W/L/Other. Age ID: 13/21/31/33 18>30>45>65+ Harris 45, Trump 50   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll bias score is -4, no bias. Slightly too many GOP, 65+ and too few BA+ offset by too few white ID and too many women. Overall it balances well. Included Harris 45, Trump 50     x
THE HILL / EMERSON 9/15-9/18 868LV, Party ID: 30D/39I/34R. Gender ID: 47/52 M/F. Education ID: 36/64 BA+/No BA. Racial ID: 71/3/2/19 W/B/A/L. Estimated Age ID: 16/21/35/29 18>30>45>65+ Harris 48, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll bias score -8.5, no significant bias, included. Too few GOP and men offset by too few 4-year degrees and white ID. Included Harris 48, Trump 49     x
TRAFALGAR GROUP 9/11-9/12 1088LV, Party ID: 32D/35I/33R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Racial ID: 71/19/3/2 White/Latino/ Black/Asian. Inferred Party Vote: D 95-3 Harris, I 44-38 Trump, R 93-6 (See Party ID Calculator). 45.5 Harris, 47.1 Trump   x  
Political Ref's Take This poll has a bias score of 100, or SEVERE BIAS towards the Dems and must be adjusted. Applying the inferred Party vote of D 95-3 Harris, I 44-38 Trump, R 93-6 Trump, to the more likely Party ID of 31D/33I/36R. Harris gets 44.0 to Trump 49.0. 44.0 Harris, 49.0 Trump     x
AMERICAN GREATNESS / TIPP 9/3-9/5 *See row below Harris 48, Trump 48   x  
949LV, 27D/38I/35R, Strictly Online Survey, Education: 68% some college, 27% with a graduate degree, a high percentage. This sample is likely too educated, but hard to draw the line the way the sample is reported.
Political Ref's Take The sample is almost certainly too educated and it's a strictly online survey. Likely missing some Trump vote, but hard to adjust the way it's reported. Included Harris 48, Trump 48     x
INSIDER ADVANTAGE 8/29-8/31 800LV, 35D/26I/39R Harris 48, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take The turnout is reasonable. See my turnout assumption above. Harris 48, Trump 49     x
CNN 8/23-8/29 30D/37I/34R, Inferred Education: 35% College Degree, 65% No Degree Harris 44, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take Education vote: College grads voted 50-44 Harris, non-college grads voted 50-47 Trump. These are reasonable, included. Harris 44, Trump 49     x
MORNING CONSULT 8/23-8/27 776LV, Party ID: Unavailable; Education Profile: Unavailable. Harris 48, Trump 48   x  
Political Ref's Take Morning Consult does not provide internals or charges $1500 for them. They should NOT be trusted. Excluded. Excluded      
FOX NEWS 8/23-8/26 1014RV, Party ID: 33D/33I/33R; Inferred Education ID: 45% College Degree, 55% No College Degree. Harris 49, Trump 48   x  
Political Ref's Take *See Row Below Harris 45.6, Trump 47.8     x
This is a BAD sample. Too many Dems and too many college degrees. Party Vote: D's 94-3 Harris, 45-36 Trump, 92-6 Trump. Apply party vote to more likely 31D/33I/36R, Harris 43.2 to Trump 48.9. Education vote: College Degree 56-40 Harris; No Degree 51-43 Trump. Apply education vote to more likely 60/40 split on college degree. Harris 48 to Trump 46.6. Averaging corrected polls after correcting for education and party ID biases, Harris 45.6 to Trump 47.8.
SPRY STRATEGIES 8/14-8/20 600LV, 32D/20I/42R Harris 47.6, Trump 48.7   x  
Political Ref's Take Many Republican voters are Independents in Arizona, so it looks like they just included leaners as Republicans. The Trump approval and ballot question are in line with other polls. Included Harris 47.6, Trump 48.7     x
EMERSON COLLEGE 8/25-8/28 720LV, Party ID: 30D/36I/34R, Education Profile: College grad 36%, No Degree 64% Harris 47, Trump 50   x  
Political Ref's Take Reasonable party ID and education profile. Included Harris 47, Trump 50     x
Noble Predictive Insights 8/12-8/16 1003RV, Inferred party distribution from cross-tabs of 33D/31I/36R Harris 44, Trump 47   x  
Political Ref's Take How the parties voted: D voted 88-9 Harris, I's voted 41-38 Trump, R's voted 89-8 Trump. The inferred party distribution shown above is reasonably close to the most likely distribution, so I will include this result. Harris 44, Trump 47     x
Rasmussen Reports 8/13-8/17 1187LV Harris 45, Trump 47   x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll The party distribution is hidden behind a paywall. The distribution, however, looks close to the most likely vote as I see it. I will include this in my average. Harris 45, Trump 47     x
NYT/Sienna 8/8-8/15 677LV, 33D/29I/31R Harris 50, Trump 45   x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll How the parties voted: D voted 93-5 for Harris, I voted 50-40 for Harris, R voted 92-7 Trump. Applying these vote ratios to the much more likely voter turnout of 31D/33I/36R, you get the following result. Harris 47.9, Trump 47.9     x
Trafalgar Group 8/6-8/8 1000LV, 30.3D/35.3I/34.4R Harris 46.5, Trump 47.7   x  
Political Ref's take on the above poll This is a reasonable party distribution. No adjustment necessary. Harris 46.5, Trump 47.7     x
FULL POLL RESULTS AND EXPLANATIONS OF ADJUSTMENTS
Poll Date Sample + Party Distribution Result   Pollster Avg Ref's Avg
             
MY CURRENT TURNOUT ASSUMPTION: 31D/33I/36R. I have allocated five points from the I column to Dems and 1 from the R column to R's. Many Dems have identified as Independents in the past, and moving them to the I column makes more sense with the polls.
 
2020 EXIT POLL - 26D/39I/35R without leaners (PDF); Demo - White 74%, Black 2%, Hispanic/Latino 19%, Asian 2%; Age - 18-29(14%), 30-44(24%), 45-64(37%), 65<(25%). Education: 41% 4-Year College Degree, 59% No Degree
 

To see results of 2020 Arizona polls below, click here

Best 2020 Arizona Polls: #1 Data Orbital and #2 RMG Research

Polls that got Arizona right: Data Orbital, RMG Research, Monmouth, YouGov, Emerson, Ipsos

Polls that got Arizona wrong: Rasmussen Reports, Trafalgar Group, Susquehenna Polling, Atlas Intel, Marist College

 
         
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