the smarter average
2024 AVERAGES: HOME | NATIONAL VOTE | ELECTORAL COL. | HOUSE | SENATE | Battlegrounds: AZ - GA - NC - MI - PA - WI - NV
         
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>>>LOOK AT MY PAST PROJECTIONS. THE MOST EXTENSIVE POLL AVERAGES, PERIOD.
POLITICAL REF'S AVG:
Trump +0.4
Harris 48.0, Trump 48.4
Sample Size: 10,936 Voters
Theoretical Margin of Error: 0.9%
Sample Model: 2020 Exit Poll Turnout Model (Polls that did not use the 2020 Exit Poll model were adapted to it, which justifies a margin of error).
EXIT POLL & 2024 TURNOUT ASSUMPTIONS
POLLSTERS:
Harris +0.7
Harris 48.2, Trump 47.5
If a poll is missing, it does not release cross tabs, has too small of a sample (<500) or averaged 3 or more off the result in the last two presidential elections.
Poll Date Sample + Party Distribution + Response Bias Adjustments Result Margin Pollster Avg Ref's Avg
ATLAS INTEL 11/3- 11/4 869LV, Party: 32D/33/36R. Gender: 48/50. Education: 46/54 BA/<BA. Race: 89/3/4/1/3. Age: 10/22/40/28. Harris 47.9, Trump 49.1   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score: Poll Bias Score = 106 to Dems, severe bias, will adjust. Bias summary in lines 9-11. After adjustment, Harris 46.9, Trump 49.4. Harris 46.9, Trump 49.4 +2.5   x
TRAFALGAR GROUP 11/1-11/3 1086LV, Party: 36D/28I/36R. Gender: 49.5/50.5 M/F. Race: 84/5/4/3/5 WBLAO. Age: 4/9/16/32/39 18-30-40-50-65+. Harris 48.2, Trump 47.0   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score: 6, insignificant bias. Bias summary in lines 9-11. Harris 48.2, Trump 47.0 +1.2   x
INSIDER ADVANTAGE 10/29-11/2 800LV. All voter IDs inferred. Party: 35D/30I/35R. Gender: 48/52 M/F. Race: 82/8/6/3 WBLO. Age: 18/46/36 18-40-65+. Harris 47.6, Trump 48.9   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = 14, insignificant bias. Bias summary in lines 9-11. Harris 47.6, Trump 48.9 +1.3   x
EMERSON 10/29-11/2 800LV, Party 33D/31I/36R. Gender: 50/50 M/F. Education: 36/44 BA/<BA. Race: 87/7/4/1/2 WBLAO. Age: 13/14/14/21/37 18-30-40-50-60+ Harris 48, Trump 48   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score: 39, insignificant bias. Bias summary in lines 9-11. Harris 48, Trump 48 TIED   x
NYT / SIENNA 10/25-11/2 1305LV, Party: 32D/30I/31R. Gender: 46/53 M/F. Education: 37/63 BA/<BA. Race: 72/4/3/1/1. Age: 11/20/33/33 18-30-45-65+. Harris 49, Trump 47   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score: = 243 toward Dems, severe bias. Far too many Dems, women, college grads and pro-Harris age groups. Far too few white ID. After adjustment, Harris 48.2 to Trump 48.0 Harris 48.2, Trump 48.0 +0.2   x
MARIST 10/27-10/30 1330LV, Party: 35D/29I/36R. Gender: 50/50 M/F. Education: 33/67 BA+/NoBA. Race: 84/5/5/6 WBLO. Age: 18/19/63 18-35-45+. Harris 50.0, Trump 48.0   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = 77 to Dems, definite bias, will adjust. Too many Dems, too few white ID, disproportionately pro-Harris age groups. Not offset by too few college degrees. Will adjust. Harris gets 49.7, Trump 48.2. Calculations here. Harris 49.7, Trump 48.2 +1.5   x
AMERICAN GREATNESS / TIPP 10/28-10/30 831LV, Voter IDs are inferred. Party: 32D/31I/37R. Gender: 52/48 M/F. Race: 91/4/5 WBL. Age: 8/26/39/26 18-25-45-65+. Harris 48, Trump 48   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score: = -62 toward the GOP, definite bias, will adjust. Too many men and white ID. The bias did not affect the topline. I got the same results, 48-48. Calculations here. Harris 48, Trump 48 TIED   x
RASMUSSEN REPORTS 10/25-10/29 818LV, Party: 33D/29I/37R. Gender: 49/51 M/F. Race: 83/8/6/2 WBLO. Age: 15/15/17/26/27 18-30-40-50-65+ Harris 47, Trump 50   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = -16, no bias, Included in my average. No notable areas of bias. Harris 47, Trump 50 +3.0   x
CNN 10/23-10/28 736LV, All but party IDs are inferred. Party: 34D/23I/34R. Gender: 46/54 M/F. Education: 39/61 BA+/NoBA. Race: 91/2/4/4 WBLO. Age: 23/23/30/24 18-35-50-65+. Harris 51, Trump 45   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = Includes these pro-Harris biases, too many Dems, women, college degrees and pro-Harris age group share. Not offset by the one pro-Trump bias, too many white ID. Calculations here. Harris gets 48.3 to Trump 47.5. Harris 48.3, Trump 47.5 +0.8   x
MARQUETTE LAW 10/16-10/24 753LV, Party: 42D/11I/47R. Gender: 50/50 M/F. 39/61 BA+/NoBA. Race: 91/2/4/4 WBLO. Age: 15/23/24/38 18-30-45-60+. Harris 46, Trump 44   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score: 90 toward Dems, definite bias, will adjust. Far too many women, college degrees, black ID and pro-Harris age groups. Calculations here. Harris 48.2, Trump 47.7 +0.5   x
USA TODAY / SUFFOLK 10/20-10/23 500LV, Party: 35D/28I/34R. Gender: 48/51 M/F. Education: 41/59 BA+/No. Racial: 67/12/12/4/5 WBLAO. Age: 22/23/27/27 18-35-50-65+. Harris 48, Trump 47   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = Too many Dems/few GOP, too many women/few men, far too many college and post-grad degrees, far too few white ID/too many of each non-white ID and too many pro-Harris age groups/few Trump age groups. All of these are pro-Harris biases. There were no pro-Trump biases. After adjustment, Harris 47.8, Trump 49.2. See calculations here. Harris 47.8, Trump 49.2 +1.4   x
QUINNIPIAC UNIV 10/17-10/21 1108LV, Party ID: 31D/32I/30R. Inferred Gender ID: 46/54 M/F. Education ID: 34/66 BA+/NoBA. Age ID: 21/21/32/26 18-35-50-65+. Harris 48, Trump 48   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 78 towards Dems, definite bias, will adjust. To many Dems and too many women. After adjustment, Harris 48.0 to Trump 48.7. See calculations here. Harris 48.0, Trump 48.7 +0.7   x
OUTDATED POLLS BELOW. NOT INCLUDED IN THE AVERAGES.
RMG RESEARCH 10/10-10/16 787LV, Party ID: 34D/29I/36R. Gender ID: 49/51 M/F. Racial ID: 87/13 W/O. Age ID: 15/15/13/24/34 18-35-45-55-65+. Harris 49, Trump 50   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score -87 towards GOP. Too many 55-64 and 65+, pro-Trump age groups, and too few 18-34 and 45-54, pro-Harris age groups. This pro-Trump bias was not fully offset by pro-Harris biases, too many Dems and too many women. After adjusting, Harris gets 49.0 to Trump 48.5. See calculations here. Harris 49.0, Trump 48.5 +0.5   x
WALL STREET JOURNAL 9/28-10/8 600RV, Party ID: 43D/13I/44R. Gender ID: 45/51 M/F. Education ID: 37/63 BA+/NoBA. Age ID: 22/21/25/29 18-35-50-65+. Racial ID: 86/4/3/1/5 W/B/L/A/O. Harris 48, Trump 48   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 125 towards Dems, severe bias, will adjust. Too many Dems, too few men, too many college and post-grad degrees and disproportionately pro-Harris age groups in relation to Trump age groups. There were no pro-Trump biases to offset the pro-Harris biases. After adjusting, Harris gets 47.6 to Trump 48.7. See calculations here. Harris 47.6, Trump 48.7 +1.1   x
INSIDER ADVANTAGE 10/26-10/27 800LV Harris 48, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take Sample and Cross-Tabs not yet made available Excluded      
EMERSON 10/21-10/22 800LV, Party ID: 33D/31I/36R. Gender ID: 50/50 M/F. Education ID: 36/64 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 87/7/4/1/1 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 20/21/31/28 18-35-50-65+. Harris 48, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 21, insignificant bias, included in my average. Slightly too many college and post-grad degrees and slightly too many Dems, offset by very slight racial ID and age ID biases. Included in the average. Harris 48, Trump 49 +1.0   x
TRAFALGAR GROUP 10/18-10/20 1083LV, Party ID: 36D/28I/36R. Gender ID: 50/50 M/F. Racial ID: 84/5/4/3/5 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 4/9/16/32/39 18-30-40-50-65+. Harris 46.6, Trump 46.8   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 45 toward Dems, insignificant bias, will include in my averages. Too many Dems not offset by opposing bias, but ultimately an insignificant bias. Included. Harris 46.6, Trump 46.8 +0.2   x
ATLAS INTEL 10/30-10/31 673LV, Party: 33D/33I/34R. Gender: 49/50 M/F. Education: 47/53 BA+/NoBA. Race: 88/4/4/1/3 WBLAO. Age: 15/23/42/20 18-30-45-65+ Harris 48.2, Trump 48.5   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = 196 toward the Dems, severe bias, must adjust. Too many men and and too many college degrees, insufficiently offset by too much white ID and disproportionately pro-Trump age groups. Harris 47.6, Trump 49.3 +1.7   x
ATLAS INTEL 10/25-10/29 1470LV, Party: 32D/33I/36R. Gender: 46/53 MF. Education: 48/52 BA+/No. Racial ID: 89/3/4/1/3 WBLAO. Age: 14/23/42/22 18-30-45-65+. Region: 47/25/28 UrbSubRur. Harris 48, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = 151 to Dems, severe bias. Too many women/few men, far too many college and post-grad degrees, and disproportionate pro-Harris age groups. These biases are not offset by too many white ID. While the bias is severe, it looks like Atlas corrected for these biases and didn't make that clear from the sample notes. The adjusted result is the same, Harris 48 to Trump 49. This is why complete cross-tabs are essential for transparency in polling. Bias can be proven and disproven. Harris 48, Trump 49 +1.0   x
INSIDER ADVANTAGE 10/8-10/9 800LV Harris 48, Trump 48   x  
Political Ref's Take Awaiting release of the cross-tabs. Until then, excluded. Excluded  
ATLAS INTEL 10/12-10/17 932LV, Party ID: 33D/31I/36R. Gender ID: 47/52 M/F. Education ID: 47/53 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 89/3/5/1/3 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 14/23/42/22 18-30-45-65+. Regional ID: 44/27/29 Sub/Urb/Rural. Harris 49, Trump 48   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 203 towards Dems, severe bias, must adjust. Slightly too many Dems, too many women/few men, far too many college and post-grad degrees and pro-Harris age group proportion. These pro-Harris biases are not offset by too many white ID. See calculation here. Harris 48.6, Trump 48.3 +0.3   x
EMERSON 10/5-10/8 1000LV, Party ID: 33D/31I/36R. Gender ID: 50/50 M/F. Education ID: 36/64 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 87/7/4/1/2 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 13/28/21/37 18-30-50-60+. Harris 49, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 51 toward Dems, definite bias, will adjust. Slightly too many Dems/too few GOP, too many college and post-grad degrees, not sufficiently offset by slightly too few 18-29 age group. After adjustment, Harris gets 48.3 to Trump 49.5. See calculations here.

Harris 48.3, Trump 49.5

 +1.2   x
QUINNIPIAC UNIV 10/3-10/7 1073LV, Party ID: 28D/33I/31R. Inferred Gender ID: 47/53 M/F. Inferred Education ID: 34/66 BA+/NoBA. Inferred Racial ID: 86/5/8 W/B/O. Age ID: 20/20/36/24 18-35-50-65+. Harris 47, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 55 toward Dems, definite bias, will adjust. Too few GOP and too many women/few men not sufficiently offset by disproportionately Trump favorable age groups. After adjustment, small change, Harris 46.0, Trump 48.4. Harris 46.0, Trump 48.4 +2.4   x
TRAFALGAR GROUP 9/28-9/30 1079LV, Party ID: 36D/28I/36R. Gender ID: 49/51 M/F. Racial ID: 84/5/4/3/5 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 4/9/16/32/39 18-30-40-50-65+. Harris 46, Trump 47   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score -28, no significant bias. Included in my averages. Harris 46, Trump 47     x
NYT / Sienna 9/21-9/26 680LV, Party ID: 31D/32I/29R. Gender ID: 48/51 M/F. Education ID: 37/63 BA+/NoBA. Age ID: 12/17/35/32 18-30-45-65+. Racial ID: 75/4/3/1/1 W/L/B/A/O. Harris 49, Trump 47   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 204 towards Dems, or severe bias. Must adjust each biased category and average all results with the original topline. Too many Dems, women, college and post-grad degree holders and 65+. Also too few 30-44, non-college degree holders and men. This sample is unbalanced and will produce an overly Democratic result. After correcting correcting each area, Harris gets 47.7 to Trump 47.8. See work here. Harris 47.7, Trump 47.8     x
MARQUETTE (+5.5 dem avg in last two WI pres elections) 9/18- 9/26 798LV, Party ID: 32D/34I/34R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Education ID: 36/64 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 93/3/4 W/B/O. Age ID: 14/21/26/39 18-30-45-60+. Harris 52, Trump 48   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 33 towards Dems, insignificant bias, included in my average. Too many Dems, too many women/few men and slightly too many college and post-grad degrees offset by too many white ID. The biases balance sufficiently to consider the poll reasonable. Included in my average. Harris 52, Trump 48     x
ATLAS INTEL 9/20-9/25 1077LV, Party ID: 36D/30I/34R. Gender ID: 45/55 M/F. Education ID: 47/53 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 87/6/3/1/3 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 13/23/40/23 18-30-45-65+. Harris 48, Trump 50   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 285, severely biased. Will adjust and average with original topline. Too many Dems, too few GOP, far too many women and too few men, far too many college and post-grads. Nothing to offset. After adjusting, we see that the pollster seems to have already accounted for my concerns because it's the same result, Harris 48, Trump 50. See calculations here. Harris 48, Trump 50     x
RASMUSSEN REPORTS 9/19-9/22 1071LV, Party ID: 30D/34I/36R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Age ID: 11/18/20/20/31 18-30-40-50-65+. Racial ID: 70/7/23 W/B/Other. Harris 49, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 184 towards Dems, severe bias, will adjust. Slight bias to GOP on party ID, Biases to Dems include too many women, too little white ID, and slight age ID advantage. Will adjust all four and average with topline result. See all assumptions and calculations here. Harris 47.9, Trump 48.8     x
MARIST 9/12-9/17 1194LV, Party ID: 35D/30I/35R. Education ID: 34/66 BA+/No BA. Gender ID: 52/48 M/F. Racial ID: 86/4//4/6 W/B/L/Other. Harris 50, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take Bias score of 20 to Dems, mild bias, included. Too many Dems and too few GOP, offset by too many men and too few women. Included Harris 50, Trump 49     x
THE HILL / EMERSON 9/15-9/18 1000LV, Party ID: 33D/31I/36R, Gender ID: 50/50 M/F. Education ID: 36/64 BA+/No BA. Race ID: 87/7/4/1 W/B/H/A. Inferred Age ID: 13/21/38/26 18/30/45/5+. Harris 48, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take Bias Score of 43.5 to Dems, mild bias, included. Slightly too few GOP and 4-year degrees, slightly too white. Offset. Included Harris 48, Trump 49     x
QUINNIPIAC UNIV 9/12-9/16 1075LV, Party ID: 30D/36I/28R. Inferred Education ID: 37/63 BA+/No BA. Gender ID: 47/53 M/F. Racial ID: 86/4/4/6 W/B/L/Other. Harris 49.0, Trump 48.0   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll has a bias score of 106 toward Dems, a severe bias, and the poll will be adjusted for my average. Poll's number is included w/ pollster average, as always. I am adjusting using the gender ID. Party ID is tricky in Wisconsin, more GOP leaners identify as Independent, so I'm not using that. Men voted 58-38 Trump, Women 57-38 Harris. Assuming more likely 50/50 gender split, Trump gets 48.0 to Harris 47.5. Harris 47.5, Trump 48.0     x
FABRIZIO / ANZALONE 9/11-9/15 600LV, Inferred Party ID: 32D/31I/37R. Gender ID: 50/50 M/F. Inferred Education ID: 36/64 BA+/No Ba. Harris 49.0, Trump 48.0   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll has a bias of 24 to the Dems, mild bias, included in my average. Only issue is slightly too many four-year degrees. Included Harris 49.0, Trump 48.0     x
INSIDER ADVANTAGE 9/11-9/12 800LV, Party ID: 38D/24I/38R, Gender ID: 53/47 F/M, Racial ID: 84/10/2/1 White/Black/ Latino/Asian, Age ID: 10/48/42 18-39/40-64/65+. Harris 49.0, Trump 46.6      
Political Ref's Take *See Row Below for Full Explanation Harris 47.3, Trump 46.9     x
*The bias score for this poll is 80 towards Democrats. See full calculations here. This is unusual for an Insider Advantage poll, but that's what the numbers show. Will adjust for party and racial bias and average. Party vote D 93-6 Harris, I 53-35 Harris, R 95-3 Trump. Applying party vote to more likely Party ID of 32D/31I/37R, Harris gets 47.3 to Trump 47.9. Racial vote: White 49-47 Trump, Black 74-21 Harris, Latino 51-49 Harris, Asian 53-31 Trump. Applying this racial vote to more likely 86/6/4/1 W/B/L/A racial ID, Harris gets 47.2 to Trump 45.9. Averaging party and racial ID together, Harris gets 47.3 to Trump 46.9.
MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL 8/28-9/5 738LV, Party ID: 42D/14I/45R. Education ID: 38/62 Degree/No Degree. Harris 52, Trump 48   x  
Political Ref's Take This polls includes too many Dems and too many college degrees as compared to 2020 exit polls. Adjusting party to R+5 and 34/66 Degree/No Degree. Party vote isn't provided, inferring D 98-1 Harris, I 55/40 Harris, R 93-6 Trump. Using R+5 party ID of 41D/13I/46R, reallocating the party vote, Harris gets 50 to Trump 48.4. Harris 50, Trump 48.4     x
CBS NEWS / YOUGOV 9/3-9/6 958LV, Inferred Party ID: 34D/32I/34R. Education ID: Not reported for full sample, only whites. Harris 51, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take The Party ID substantially differs from 2020 and includes too many Democrats and too few Republicans. Party Vote: D's 99-1 Harris, I's 51-47 Harris, R's 98-2 Trump. Applying this vote to the likely 32D/31I/37R, Harris 48.2 to Trump 51.2. Harris 48.2, Trump 51.2     x
TRAFALGAR GROUP 8/28-8/30 1083LV, Party Distribution 35.6D/27.3I/37.1R, Racial Makeup: 84% White, 5% Black, 4% Hispanic, 3% Asian, 5% Other Harris 46.2, Trump 47.3   x  
Political Ref's Take The party distribution is low on R's. The racial makeup is very close. Adjusting to the more likely R+4 sample of 32D/32I/36R. Harris receives 46 and Trump 49. Harris 46, Trump 49     x
THE HILL / EMERSON COLLEGE 8/25-8/28 850LV, 33D/31I/36R, 36% College Degree, 64% no College Degree Harris 48, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take The party distribution and education distribution are very similar to 2020. 2020 is a heavy Democrat year. No adjustment necessary. Harris 48, Trump 49     x
RASMUSSEN REPORTS 8/13-8/19 1099LV, 35D/30I/35R Harris 48, Trump 47   x  
Political Ref's Take D's voted 90-7 Harris, I's voted 46-45 Trump, R's voted 87-10 Trump. Adjusting to the more likely turnout of 32D/32I/36R, Harris 46.8, Trump 48.3. Harris 46.8, Trump 48.3     x
AMERICAN GREATNESS / TIPP 8/12-8/14 976LV, 33D/31I/36R Harris 47, Trump 47   x  
Political Ref's Take Party distribution looks reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Harris 47, Trump 47     x
FULL POLL RESULTS AND EXPLANATIONS OF ADJUSTMENTS
Poll Date Sample + Party Distribution Result   Pollster Avg Ref's Avg
CURRENT TURNOUT ASSUMPTION: 32D/31I/37R. I preserving the advantage for GOP turnout because recent polling confirms that there are still more Republicans than Democrats, a trend that began about ten years ago.
 
2020 EXIT POLL - 32D/31I/37R without leaners (PDF); Gender ID: Demo - White 86%, Black 6%, Hispanic/Latino 4%, Asian 1%; Age - 18-29(13%), 30-49(28%), 50-64(32%), 65<(26%). Education ID: 34/66 Degree/No Degree. White college grads 30%, White non-college grad 56%, Non-white college grads 3%, Non-white non-college grad 10%.
 

To see results of 2020 Wisconsin polls below, click here

Best 2020 Wisconsin Poll: Trafalgar Group

Polls that got Wisconsin right: YouGov, Ipsos, Fox News, Marquette Law School, Trafalgar Group, Emerson College, Susquehanna Polling, AtlasIntel, Civiqs

Polls that got Wisconsin wrong:

 
         
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