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2024 AVERAGES: HOME | NATIONAL VOTE | ELECTORAL COL. | HOUSE | SENATE | Battlegrounds: AZ - GA - NC - MI - PA - WI - NV
         
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>>>LOOK AT MY PAST PROJECTIONS. THE MOST EXTENSIVE POLL AVERAGES, PERIOD.
POLITICAL REF'S AVG:
Trump +1.6
Harris 47.0, Trump 48.6
Sample Size: 9602 Voters
Theoretical Margin of Error: 1.0%
Sample Model: 2020 Exit Poll Turnout Model (Polls that did not use 2020 Exit Poll model were adapted to it)
EXIT POLL & 2024 TURNOUT ASSUMPTIONS
POLLSTERS:
Trump +1.8
Harris 46.9, Trump 48.7
If a poll is missing, it does not release cross tabs, has too small a sample (<500) or averaged 3 or more off the result in the last two presidential elections.
Poll Date Sample + Party Distribution Result Margin Pollster Avg Ref's Avg
EMERSON 10/24-10/29 800LV. 34D/28I/38R. Gender: 46/54 M/F. Education: 40/60 BA/<BA. Race: 61/29/7/2/2 WBLAO. Age: 20/17/18/18/28 18-30-40-50-60+. Harris 49, Trump 50   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = 24 to Dems, insignficant bias. Bias summary on lines 9-11. Included in my average. Harris 49, Trump 50 +1.0   x
NYT / SIENNA 10/24-11/2 1004LV, Party: 35D/22I/34R. Gender: 44/56 M/F. Education: 39/61 BA+/<BA. Race: 57/27/4/2/8. Age: 15/22/34/25 18-30-45-65+. Harris 46.0, Trump 46.0   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = 81 to Dems, definite bias. Bias summary on lines 9-11. After adjusting, Harris 46.1 to Trump 46.3. Harris 46.1, Trump 46.3 +0.2   x
INSIDER ADVANTAGE 11/2-11/3 800LV, All voter IDs inferred. Party: 34D/28I/38R. Gender: 51/49 M/F. Race: 60/29/7/3 WBLO. Age: Harris 47.7, Trump 48.7   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = -79 to GOP, definite bias. Bias summary in lines 9-11. After adjustment, Harris 48.3 to Trump 47.9. Harris 48.3, Trump 47.9 +0.4   x
ATLAS INTEL 11/1-11/2 1174LV, Party: 30/31/38R. Gender: 47/51 M/F. Education: 49/51 BA+/<BA. Race: 62/26/5/3/4 WBLAO. Age: 19/28/37/17 18-30-45-65+. Harris 46.8, Trump 48.6   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = 98 to Dems, definite bias. Bias summary in lines 9-11. After adjustment, Harris 47.1 to Trump 48.1. Harris 47.1, Trump 48.1 +1.0   x
ECU 10/28-10/31 902LV, Party: 34D/24/38R, Gender: 44/56 M/F. Education: 40/60 BA+/<BA. Race: 62/29/7/2 WBLA. Age: 18-30-45-65+. Harris 49, Trump 50   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = 14 to Dems, insignficant bias. Bias summary on lines 9-11. Included in my average. Harris 49, Trump 50 +1.0   x
RASMUSSEN REPORTS 10/25-10/28 910LV, Party: 34D/29I/37R. Gender: 47/53 M/F. Race: 60/28/12 WBO. Age: 19/16/18/27/20 18-30-40-50-65+. Harris 46, Trump 51   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = -11, insignificant bias. Bias summary on lines 9-11. Included in my average. Harris 46, Trump 51 +5.0   x
CNN 10/23-10/28 732LV, 35D/28I/37R. Rest of voter IDs inferred. Gender: 37/63 M/F. Harris 47, Trump 48   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = 162 to Dems GOP, severe bias. Bias summary on lines 9-11. After adjustment, Harris 46.5 to Trump 48.5. Harris 46.5, Trump 48.5 +2.0   x
TRAFALGAR 10/24-10/26 1087LV, Party ID: 34D/28I/38R. Gender ID: 45/55 M/F. Racial ID: 60/30/6/3/1 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 14/16/19/31/20 18-30-40-50-65+. Harris 45.9, Trump 48.3   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = -47 towards GOP. Harris leaning age grooups too small offset by slightly too few white ID/too high non-white ID. The sample balances well enough, included. Harris 45.9, Trump 48.3 +2.4   x
MARIST 10/17-10/22 1193LV, Party ID: 37D/22I/40R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Education ID: 36/64 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 53/28/8/11 W/B/L/O. Age ID: 27/16/57 18-35-45+. Harris 49, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score = 2, no measurable bias, included in my average. Too many men/few women and few college and post-grad degrees, pro-Trump biases offset by far too few white ID/many other ID, a pro-Harris bias. The biases balance. While it's not ideal to try and balance major biases, it's one way to try and eliminate bias. Included. Harris 49, Trump 49 TIED   X
AJC 10/7-10/16 1000LV, Party ID: 44D/10I/46R. Gender ID: 45/55 M/F. Education ID: 38/62 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 64/29/7 W/B/O. Age ID: 15/24/35/26 18-30-45-65+. Harris 43, Trump 47   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score -21, insignificant bias, included in my average. Barely any bias to speak of, slightly too many college and post-grad degrees and slightly too few women, offset by slightly too many Dems. Included in my averages. Harris 43, Trump 47 +4.0   x
OUTDATED AND REPLACED POLLS BELOW. NOT INCLUDED IN AVERAGES.
ATLAS INTEL 10/12-10/17 1411LV, Party ID: 33D/31I/36R. Gender ID: 49/50 M/F. Education ID: 57/43 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 63/26/5/3/4 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 18/22/41/19 18-30-45-65+. Regional ID: 60/19/21 Sub/Urb/Rur. Harris 48.1, Trump 49.5   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 238 towards Dems. It looks like they adjusted for the bias because the reported category IDs are not adhered to, but much more accurate one clearly are. There was a strong gender bias against men and far too many college post-grad degrees. The pro-Harris biases were offset by too few urban/many rural, too many white ID/too few black and Latino ID, and finally too few 18-29 and 30-44 and too many 45-64, all pro-Trump biases. In the end it should have benefited Harris, but it didn't. Adjusted result Harris 48.2 to Trump 48.7. Harris 48.2, Trump 48.7 +0.5   x
WASHINGTON POST / GMU 9/30-10/15 730LV, Party ID: D32/35I/R33. Gender ID: 47/51 M/F. Education ID: 43/57 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 58/33/4/1/3 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 19/19/16/24/23. Harris 51, Trump 47   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 43 to Dems, or insignificant bias, included in my average. Too many Dems, college and post-grad degrees and too few white ID/too many black. These pro-Harris biases were offset by too few women, a pro-Trump bias. The sample balances, included in my average. Harris 51, Trump 47 +4.0   x
AMERICAN GREATNESS / TIPP 10/14-10/16 813LV, All IDs are inferred from cross-tabs. Party ID: 34D/27I/38R. Gender ID: 44/56 M/F. 60/40 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 62/25/ W/B/L. Age ID: 14/34/35/17 18-25-45-65+. Harris 49, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 270 toward Dems, severe bias, will adjust. Far too many college and post-grad degrees, too many 18-24 and 25-44. These Harris biases are not offset. After adjustment, Harris gets 47.9 to Trump 48.5. Harris 47.9, Trump 48.5 +0.6   x
QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY 10/10- 10/14 1328LV, Party ID: 28D/28I/35R. Gender ID: Harris 46, Trump 52   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score -40, insignificant bias, included in my averages. Included in my averages. Harris 46, Trump 52 +6.0   x
ECU 10/9-10/14 701LV, Party ID: 34D/22I/38D. Gender ID: 44/56 M/F. Education ID: 40/60 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 62/29/7/2 W/B/L/O. Age ID: 20/24/36/20 18-30-45-65+. Harris 46, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll bias score -10, no bias, included in my averages. No notable biases exist, very good poll. Harris 46, Trump 49 +3.0   x
RMG 10/7-10/10 731LV, Party ID w/ Leaners: 45D/6I/49R. Gender ID: 46/54 M/F. Racial ID: 62/26/12 W/B/O. Age ID: 18/16/14/25/27 18-35-45-55-65+. Harris 47, Trump 50   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score -94 towards Dems, definite bias, will adjust. there are to few women/many men and far too few 18-34, a pro-Harris age group, and too many 55-64, a pro-Trump age group. there are no Trump biases in this sample. After adjusting, Harris 48.0 to Trump 48.4. See calculations here. Harris 48.0, Trump 48.4 +0.4   x
WALL STREET JOURNAL 9/28-10/8 600RV, Inferred Party ID: 42D/15I/43R. Inferred Gender ID: 45/51 M/F. Education ID: 44/56 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 52/32/5/3/3 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 29/24/24/21 18-35-50-65+. Harris 48, Trump 46   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 112 towards Dems, severe bias, will adjust. Too many Dems, too many college and post-grad degrees and far too few white ID and too much black, Asian and other ID. These pro-Harris biases are not offset by too few women/many men, a pro-Trump bias. After adjusting, Harris gets 48.4 to Trump 47.5. See calculations here. Harris 48.4, Trump 47.5 +0.9   x
EMERSON 10/5-10/8 1000LV, Party ID: 34D/28I/38R. Gender ID: 46/54 M/F. Education ID: 40/60 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 61/29/7/2/5. Age ID: 20/17/18/18/28 18-30-40-50-60+. Harris 48, Trump 49      
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 50 towards Dems, or insignificant bias, included in my average. Too few women/many men offset by too many college and post-grad degrees and too high non-white ID. Included in my average. Harris 48, Trump 49 +1.0   x
INSIDER ADVANTAGE 9/29-9/30 800LV, Party ID: 36D/24I/40R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Racial ID: 61/30/5/4 W/B/L/O. Age ID: 8/48/44 18-40-65+ Harris 48.3, Trump 47.6   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score -117 toward Dems, severe bias, will adjust. There were not enough women/too many men, but Trump's most favorable age group was dramatically under represented, causing the Dem leaning bias. After adjusting the race is tied at 47.9. See calculations here. Harris 47.9, Trump 47.9 TIED   x
CBS NEWS 9/20-9/24 1441LV, Party ID: 35D/30I/35R. Gender ID: 44/56 M/F. Education ID: 42/58 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 60/40 W/non-W. Age ID: 39/36/25 18-45-65+. Harris 49, Trump 51   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll bias score of 122 toward Dems, severe bias, must adjust. Education ID and party ID were too Dem leaning, gender was slightly GOP leaning. After correcting and averaging the results, Harris 46.5, Trump 51.0. Corrected bias score 46 lean Dem, mild bias. See work here. Harris 46.5, Trump 51.0 +4.5   x
FOX NEWS 9/20-9/24 707LV, Party ID: 43D/9I/47R. Inferred Gender ID: 49/51 M/F. Inferred Education ID: 29/71 BA+/NoBA. Inferred Racial ID: 61/29/7/3 W/B/O/L. Inferred Age ID: 33/67 <45/>45. Harris 51, Trump 48   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score -302 towards the GOP, severe bias, will correct all biased categories. Too few women and too many men, far too few college and post-grads, far too few under 45 and too many over 45. None of these heavy GOP biases were offset. After adjusting, Harris leads by 3.4, Harris 50.9, Trump 47.5. Overall, this seems like a very Democratic friendly sample. They leaned on the voter IDs to make them GOP biased, as reflected by my poll bias score above, because their sample leaned so heavily Harris in tendency regardless of ID. For example, it had non-college tied. NYT/Sienna had Trump winning non-college 53-39, as all others do by a similar margin. See all calculations here. Harris 50.9, Trump 47.5 +3.4   x
RASMUSSEN REPORTS 9/19-9/22 1152LV, party ID: 43D/14I/43R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Education ID: 45/55 No BA/BA+. Racial ID: 81/19 White/Black+Other. Age ID: 15/16/17/28/24 18>30>40>50>65+. Harris 47, Trump 50   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll bias score -82 to GOP. Too few women, too many men, too many white ID and too few black ID. Not sufficiently offset by too few GOP and too many Dems and too many four-year college degrees/grad degrees. Adjusted the racial ID and party ID to reach a bias score of 28 toward Dems, or no significant bias. Included Harris 47.7, Trump 47.7 TIED   x
NYT / SIENNA 9/17-9/21 682LV, Party ID: 31/26/35 D/I/R. Gender ID: 45/55 M/F. Age ID: 15/23/35/25 18-30-45-65+. Education ID: 39/61 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 56/27/4/2/9 W/B/L/A/Other Harris 45, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll bias score -16 to GOP, no significant bias, included. Slight education bias and too few white ID to Dems offset by too many 45-64 and 65+, who leaned Trump in this poll. It all balances well. Included. Harris 45, Trump 49 +4.0   x
TRAFALGAR 10/7-10/8 1089LV, Party ID: 34D/28I/38R. Gender ID: 45/55 M/F. Racial ID: 60/30/6/3/1 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 14/16/19/31/20 18-30-40-50-65+. Harris 46, Trump 47   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score -47 towards GOP, insignificant bias, included in my average. Slightly too few women/many men and too many older voters offset by slightly too few white ID and slightly too many non-white ID. Included. Harris 46, Trump 47 +1.0   x
ATLANTA JOURNAL- CONST. 9/9-9/15 1000LV, Party ID: 44.3D/13I/42.4R. Gender ID: 56/44 F/M. Racial ID: 63.5/29.1/7.4 White/Black/Other. Education ID: 38/62 Degree/No Degree. Harris 44, Trump 47   x  
Political Ref's Take This poll has a bias score of 5 toward the Dems, which is a very slight bias and is within acceptable range. This nearly a perfect score. You can assume that the internals listed above closely match 2020. See full calculations here. No adjustment necessary. Harris 44, Trump 47     x
ATLAS INTEL 9/20-9/25 1200LV, Party ID: 32D/32I/36R. Gender ID: 44/55 M/F. Education ID: 51/49 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 64/26/4/2/4 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 15/25/41/19 18-30-45-65+. Harris 49, Trump 50   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 51, definite bias. Will adjust. Far too many college and post-grads, not sufficiently offset by too many white ID and disproportionately GOP age groups. After adjustment, Harris gets 48.7 to Trump 49.5. Harris 48.7, Trump 49.5     x
QUINNIPIAC 9/25-9/29 942LV, Party ID: 28D/28I/35R. Gender ID: 42/58 M/F. 25/34/24/16 18-35-50-65+. Missing racial and education IDs. Harris 45, Trump 50   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 34, no significant bias. Included. Harris 45, Trump 50     x
AmGreatness / TIPP 9/16-9/18 835LV, Party ID: 34D/28I/38R. Gender ID: 45/55 M/F. Education ID: 42/58 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 62/31/4 W/B/L. Age ID: 9/33/34/23 18-25-45-65+. Harris 48, Trump 48   x  
Political Ref's Take Poll Bias Score 58 to Dems, slightly over the threshold for adjustment. Adjusted education ID that leaned Dem ratio and age ID ratio that leaned GOP, ended up with 48.8 Harris, 48.5 Trump. Probably insignificant, but it triggered the adjustment. Harris 48.8, Trump 48.5     x
TRAFALGAR GROUP 9/11-9/13 1098LV, Party ID: 34D/28I/38R. Gender ID: 55/45 F/M. Racial ID: 60/30/6/2.5/1 White/Black/ Latino/Asian/Other. Harris 44.5, Trump 46.2   x  
Political Ref's Take This poll has a bias score of -20, or no significant bias, acceptable. Party ID, Gender ID and Racial ID all come very close to most likely turnout. Included. Harris 44.5, Trump 46.2     x
QUINN- IPIAC UNIV 9/4-9/8 969LV, Inferred Party ID: 35D/28I/37R; Education ID: Not Provided Harris 46, Trump 49   x  
Political Ref's Take Party Vote: D 94-2 Harris, I 46-46 Tie, R 94-2 Trump. Reallocating the party vote to the likely party ID of 34D/28I/38R, Harris gets 45.6 to Trump 49.3. Harris 45.6, Trump 49.3     x
INSIDER ADVANTAGE 8/29-8/31 800LV, 36D/24I/40R Harris 48, Trump 48   x  
Political Ref's Take Party Vote: D 93-4 Harris, I 45-45 Tie, R 90-9 Trump. Sample looks good. Included. Harris 48, Trump 48     x
THE HILL / EMERSON 8/25-8/28 800LV, 34D/28I/38R Harris 49, Trump 48   x  
Political Ref's Take This party distribution of likely voters is reasonable. Included. Harris 49, Trump 48     x
FOX NEWS 8/23-8/26 1014RV, 41D/14I/44R Harris 50, Trump 48   x  
Political Ref's Take *See Row Below Harris 46.5, Trump 48.4     x
*The R+3 party distribution assumes Democrats will outdo their amazing 2020 turnout. The entire game comes down to which party gets its electorate out, which is why registered voter polls are misleading. With more stringent voter requirements and far more distractions compared to 2020 that will frustrate Democratic GOTV, like people going to work and living their lives, this very rosy scenario for Dems is almost certain not to materialize. Will reallocate the party votes to the more likely electorate of 41D/14I/46R. The party vote follows: D's voted 95-5 Harris (Crosstabs showed inaccurate tally of 96-5), I's 44-29 Harris and R's 92-3 Trump. Reallocating those numbers to the more likely electorate, Harris receives 46.5 to Trump's 48.4.
NYT / SIENNA 8/9-8/14 661LV, 34D/25I/33R Harris 46, Trump 50   x  
Political Ref's Take *See Row Below Harris 44.6, Trump 51.9     x
*The electorate does not have enough Republicans and this is clear. Adjusting to the more likely electorate of 33D/28I/38R. The party vote follows: D's voted 93-2 Harris, I's voted 50-47 Trump and R's voted 98-2 for Trump. Allocating the party vote, Harris receives 44.6 to Trump's 51.9.
FULL POLL RESULTS AND EXPLANATIONS OF ADJUSTMENTS
Poll Date Sample + Party Distribution Result   Pollster Avg Ref's Avg
CURRENT TURNOUT ASSUMPTION: 34D/28I/38R. I think the Democrats will not be able to replicate their massive turnout of 2020 because people are back to work and distracted by normal life far more than in 2020, substantially stronger voter requirements have been reinstated after the pandemic abandonment of them, and a GOP registration advantage over the last four years.
 
2020 EXIT POLL - 34D/28I/38R without leaners (PDF); Demo - White 61%, Black 29%, Hispanic/Latino 7%, Asian 1%; Age - 18-29(20%), 30-44(24%), 45-64(36%), 65<(19%).
 

To see results of 2016 Georgia polls below, click here

Best 2016 Georgia Poll: Emerson College

Polls that got Georgia right: UPI/CVoter, Reuters/Ipsos, CCES/YouGov, Data Orbital, NBC/Marist, CNN/OpRes, CBS/YouGov, Monmouth

Polls that got georgia wrong: Survey Monkey, Saguaro Strategies

 
         
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