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NORTH CAROLINA |
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| POLITICAL REF'S AVG: |
| Trump +1.8 |
| Harris 47.2, Trump 49.0 |
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| EXIT POLL & 2024 TURNOUT ASSUMPTIONS |
| POLLSTERS: Trump +1.1 |
| Harris 47.7, Trump 48.8 |
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| If a poll is missing, it does not release cross tabs, has too small a sample (<500) or averaged 3 or more off the result in the last two presidential elections. |
| Poll |
Date |
Sample + Party Distribution + Response Bias Adjustments |
Result |
Pollster Avg |
Ref's Avg |
| EMERSON |
10/5-10/8 |
1000LV, Party ID: 34D/29I/37R. Gender ID: 45/55 M/F. Education ID: 36/64 BA+/NoBA. Age ID: 15/14/16/21/34 18-30-40-50-60+. Racial ID: 66/24/5/3/3 W/B/L/A/O. |
Harris 48, Trump 49 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score -10, no bias, included in my average. No significant biases exist in ths poll. Included |
Harris 48, Trump 49 |
|
x |
| WALL STREET JOURNAL |
9/28-10/8 |
600RV, Party ID: 45D/12I/43R. Gender ID: 44/51 M/F. Education ID: 41/59 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 68/21/4/2/4 W/B/L/A/O. Age ID: 11/16/22/23/24 18-25-35-50-65+. |
Harris 47, Trump 47 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score 120 towards Dems, severe bias, will adjust. Too many Dems and too few GOP, far too many college and post-grad degrees, and heavily disproportionate pro-Harris age groups. These biases were not offset by too many white ID, too few non-white ID and too few women. After adjustment, Harris gets 47.3 to Trump 48.5. See all assumptions and calculations here. |
Harris 47.3, Trump 48.5 |
|
x |
| INSIDER ADVANTAGE |
9/29-9/30 |
800LV, Party ID: 34D/35I/31R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Racial ID: 70/20/4/6 W/B/L/O. Age ID: 9/46/45 |
Harris 49, Trump 50 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score -8, no bias, included in my average. Too many Dems/few GOP and slightly disproportionate pro-Harris age groups offset by too many men/few women and too many white ID/few black ID. The biases balance well, included. |
Harris 49, Trump 50 |
|
x |
| WASHINGTON POST |
9/25-9/29 |
1001LV, Party ID: 32D/39I/30R. Gender ID: 46/54 M/F. Education ID: 39/61 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 66/22/5/3/4 W/B/L/A/Other. Age ID: 32/40/28 18-40-65+. |
Harris 48, Trump 50 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score 87 towards Dems. Too many Democrats, too many college and post-grads, disproportionate pro-Dem age groups, not sufficiently offset by too few women/many men. Will correct biased areas and average with original topline. After adustment, Harris gets 47.1 to Trump 49.6. See all calculations here. |
Harris 47.1, Trump 49.6 |
|
x |
| QUINNIPIAC |
9/25-9/29 |
953LV, Party ID: 29D/35I/31R. Gender ID: 45/55 M/F. Age ID: 22/23/31/24 18-35-50-65+. |
Harris 48, Trump 49 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score 12 to Dems. Insignificant bias, but Quinnipiac needs to fully report education ID and racial ID. Included. |
Harris 48, Trump 49 |
|
x |
| EAST CAROLINA UNIV |
9/23-9/26 |
1005LV. Party ID: 34D/26I/37R. Gender ID: 44/55 M/F. Age ID: 15/22/39/24 18-30-45-65+. Education ID: 38/62 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 66/23/5/2/4 W/B/L/A/Other. |
Harris 47, Trump 49 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score 23 towards Dems, or no significant bias. Slight education bias with no signficant impact. Included in my average. |
Harris 47, Trump 49 |
|
x |
| ATLAS INTEL |
9/20-9/25 |
1173LV, Party ID: 29D/36I/35R. Gender ID: 48/50 M/F. *Education ID: 54/46 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 73/17/6/1/3 W/B/L/A/Other. Age ID: 17/26/37/20 18-30-45-65+. |
Harris 51, Trump 48 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
See calculations here. *See Row Below |
Harris 48.0, Trump 49.6 |
|
X |
Poll Bias Score 118 toward Dems. I do not cherry pick crosstabs to make conclusions about an entire poll. Occassionally, however, one single category can upset the others to the point where everything is inaccurate. This poll has an extraordinarily bad education ID, 54% college and post-grad degree holders to 46% non-degree holders, particuarly for a state like North Carolina where only 36% have college and post-grad degrees. The education ID cuts across all other IDs and undermines the poll completely. This is undeniably the case here. The pollster found that Harris won men 53-45, won three out of four age groups and found only a 53-45 win for Trump among white voters. This overwhelmingly good showing for Harris within these IDs is attributible completely to the bad education ID and nothing else. Other polls demonstrate this, as I will show below. Trump won North Carolina white voters 66-33 and men 54-45 against Joe Biden four years ago. Trump is doing similarly now in both of these categories in virtually every poll. Averaging all other polls on these categories, we find the following.
| Average of All Other Polls in this NC Poll Average on Men & White Voters |
| MALE VOTERS |
| |
Harris (Men) |
Trump (Men) |
| This Poll (Atlas-Intel) |
53 (+11) |
45 (-9) |
| Average all other polls listed below |
42 |
54 |
| Emerson |
42 |
57 |
| Wash Post |
45 |
52 |
| Quinnipiac |
37 |
59 |
| ECU |
40 |
56 |
| CNN |
45 |
51 |
| Fox News |
44 |
53 |
| Marist |
44 |
54 |
| Rasmussen |
44 |
53 |
| NYT/Sienna |
39 |
56 |
| AmerGreat/TIPP |
42 |
52 |
| WHITE VOTERS |
| |
Harris (White Voters) |
Trump (White Voters) |
| This Poll (Atlas-Intel) |
45 (+7) |
53 (-8) |
| Average all other polls listed below |
38 |
61 |
| Emerson |
43 |
56 |
| Wash Post |
38 |
60 |
| Quinnipiac |
39 |
58 |
| ECU |
32 |
66 |
| CNN |
39 |
58 |
| Fox News |
38 |
58 |
| Marist |
40 |
59 |
| Rasmussen |
38 |
59 |
| NYT/Sienna |
36 |
60 |
| AmerGreat/TIPP |
34 |
61 |
|
| CNN |
9/20-9/25 |
931LV, Party ID: 30D/35I/35R. Inferred Gender ID: 40/60 M/F. Inferred Education ID: 43/57 BA+/NoBA. Inferred Racial ID: 76/18/6 W/B/L. Inferred Age ID: 23/24/30/23 18-35-50-65+. |
Harris 49, Trump 49 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score -1, no bias, included in my average. Slightly too Republicans and far too many white ID offset by too many women and too many college and post-grads. The biased categories offset very well, the sample is balanced. Included. See calculations here. |
Harris 49, Trump 49 |
|
x |
| FOX NEWS |
9/20-9/24 |
787LV, Party ID 42D/9I/46R. Inferred Gender ID: 51/49 M/F. Inferred education ID: 45/55 BA+/NoBA. Inferred racial ID: 75/19/5 W/B/O. Inferred age ID: 24/76 <45/>45. |
Harris 49, Trump 50 |
|
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| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score -207 toward GOP, severe bias, will adjust all biased categories and average with original topline. Slightly too many GOP, far too few women and too many men, too many white ID and too few <45, too many >45. All of these biases are pro-GOP, and they are not offset by far too many college grads and post-grads, a pro-Dem bias. After adjusting all biases and averging with the original topline, Harris 48, Trump 48. See calculations here. |
Harris 48, Trump 48 |
|
x |
| MARIST |
9/19-9/24 |
1348LV, Party ID: 37D/26I/37R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Education ID: 37/63 BA+/NoBA. Age ID: 38/62 18-45+. Racial ID: 66/20/6/8 W/B/L/Other. |
Harris 49, Trump 49 |
|
|
| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score 2, no bias. Included. Too many Democrats and slightly too many college grads and post-grads is sufficiently offset by too few women/too many men. Well balanced sample, poll included. |
Harris 49, Trump 49 |
|
|
| RASMUSSEN REPORTS |
9/19-9/22 |
1078LV, Party ID: 32D/31I/38R. Gender ID: 47/53 M/F. Age ID: 10/18/22/26/24 18-30-40-50-65+. Racial ID: 65/21/14 W/B/O. |
Harris 46, Trump 49 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score 0, no bias. Included. Poll included too many Republicans and man, and too few women. These biases were offset by including too many 40-49, a Harris leaning age group. All assumptions and calculations here. |
Harris 46, Trump 49 |
|
x |
| NYT / SIENNA |
9/17-9/21 |
682LV, Party ID: 32D/36I/32R: Gender ID: 44/55 F/M. Education ID: 39/60 BA+/No BA. Racial ID: 67/19/11 W/B/Other. Age ID: 16/20/32/30 18>30>45>65+. |
Harris 47, Trump 49 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
Poll bias score 71 toward Dems. This is definite and excessive bias and will be adjusted for my average. Too few GOP and non-4-year degrees, not fully offset by slightly too many white ID. Adjusted with more likely party ID of 34D/30I/37R and education ID 34BA+/64No BA. Party ID came to 50-45 Trump and Education ID came to 48-44 Trump, an average of 49-44.5 Trump. Corrected bias score is -15, no significant bias. |
Harris 44.5, Trump 49.0 |
|
x |
| CAROLINA JOURNAL / CYGNAL |
9/15-9/16 |
600LV, Party ID: 33D/30I/33R. Gender ID: 45/55 M/F. Education ID: 42/57 BA+/No BA. Racial ID: 67/22/4/1/4 W/B/L/A/Other. Age ID: 18/23/34/25 18>30>45>65+. |
Harris 45, Trump 46 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
Poll bias score 98 toward Dems, definite and excessive bias, will adjust for my average. Too few GOP, far too many BA+ and too few Non-BA. Wil adjust using party and education ID. Party ID adjust is Harris . Education ID is Harris 44.5 Trump 47.8. Party ID is 46 Harris 49 Trump. Average is 45.3 Harris 48.4 Trump. |
Harris 45.3, Trump 48.4 |
|
x |
| AMERICAN GREATNESS / TIPP |
9/11-9/13 |
*See Row Below |
45.9 Harris, 48.9 Trump |
x |
|
| *973LV, Party ID: 33D/34I/32R. (The reported Party ID differs from crosstab reporting. I I went with crosstabs). Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Education ID: 64/36 Degree/No Degree. Racial ID: 70/22/4 White/Black/ Hispanic. |
| Political Ref's Take |
This poll has a bias score of -35, or no significant bias and is acceptable. Party ID, Gender ID, Education ID and Racial ID match the most likely turnout. Included. |
45.9 Harris, 48.9 Trump |
|
x |
| TRAFALGAR GROUP |
9/11-9/12 |
973LV, Party ID: 33D/32I/35R. Gender ID: 46/54 M/F. Racial ID: 65/25/4/3 White/Black/ Latino/Asian. |
Harris 46, Trump 48.4 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
This poll has a bias score of 10, or no significant bias and is acceptable. Party ID, Gender ID, Education ID and Racial ID match the most likely turnout. Included. |
Harris 46, Trump 48.4 |
|
x |
| PAST POLL RESULTS AND EXPLANATIONS OF ADJUSTMENTS |
| EMERSON |
9/27-9/28 |
850LV. Party ID: 34D/30I/37R. Gender ID: 45/55 M/F. Education ID: 36/64 BA+/NoBA. Racial ID: 66/24/5/3/3 W/B/L/A/Other. Age ID: 15/14/16/21/34 18-30-40-50-60+. |
Harris 48, Trump 49 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
Poll Bias Score 5, no bias, included in my average. |
Harris 48, Trump 49 |
|
x |
| THE HILL / EMERSON |
9/15-9/18 |
1000LV, Party ID: 33.8D/29.6I/36.6R. Gender ID: 45/55 M/F. Education ID: 36/64 BA+/No BA. Racial ID: 66/24/5/3/3 W/B/L/A/Other. Age ID: 15/22/38/25 18>30>45>65+. |
Harris 49, Trump 48 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
Poll bias score -8, no significant bias, included. |
Harris 49, Trump 48 |
|
x |
| QUINN- PIAC UNIV |
9/4-9/8 |
940LV, Inferred Party ID: 34D/34I/32R; Education Vote: Not provided and can't be inferred |
Harris 49, Trump 46 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
*See Row Below |
Harris 48.1, Trump 49.2 |
|
x |
| This sample assumes less Republicans vote than Dems, which is highly unlikely. Party Vote: D's 99-1 Harris, I's 47-42 Trump, R's 94-5 Trump; Education Vote: White College Degree 56-40 Harris, White No College Degree 68-30 Trump. Applying the party vote to the likely Party ID of 34D/30I/37R, Harris receives 48.1 to Trump 49.2. |
| WRAL:-TV SurveyUSA |
9/4-9/7 |
676LV, Inferred Party ID: 37D/26I/37R |
Harris 49, Trump 46 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
*See Row Below |
Harris 47.5, Trump 47.0 |
|
x |
| *Party Vote: D's 94-4 Harris, I's 43-40 Harris, R's 91-7 Trump. Education Vote: High School 49-48 Trump, Some College 49-46 Trump, Degree 51-41 Harris. This poll has a bad sample. It says Harris is outpolling Trump among poor North Carolineans, a clear sign of response bias. Also, he's basically tied with Harris among non-college degree holders. There is significant response bias here. Applying the Party Vote to the most likely turnout of 34D/30I/37R, Harris 47.5 to Trump 47.0. |
| INSIDER ADVANT. |
8/29-8/31 |
800LV, Party ID: 31D/24I/35R; Education ID: Not provided. |
Harris 48, Trump 49 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
The party ID is reasonable. The education ID is not provided so I can't judge it. Included |
Harris 48, Trump 49 |
|
x |
| ECU |
8/26-8/28 |
920LV, 34D/25I/37R |
Harris 47, Trump 48 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
Sample (PDF links on website) included 38% college or beyond, 62% no college degree. The R+3 is reasonable. Both numbers are close to the 2020 turnout, a turnout that almost certainly will not be more Democratic. Included. |
Harris 47, Trump 48 |
|
x |
| THE HILL / EMERSON COLLEGE |
8/25-8/28 |
775LV, 34D/30I/37R, 36% College Degree, 64% no Degree |
Harris 48.1, Trump 49.1 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
The internals look good on both party distribution and education. Included |
Harris 48.1, Trump 49.1 |
|
x |
| FOX NEWS |
8/23-8/26 |
999RV, 32D/33I/34R |
Harris 49, Trump 50 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's Take |
The R+2 is reasonable. Trump won College degree men and no college degree men and women. Harris won college degree women by a large amount. Actual percentages of the sample or college/non-college people polled was not reported. Included |
Harris 49, Trump 50 |
|
x |
| Insider Advantage |
8/29-8/31 |
800LV, 34D/35I/31R, College/Non-college not reported |
Harris 48.4, Trump 49.2 |
x |
|
| Political Ref's take on the above poll |
The D+3 sample is inconsistent with 2020, already a heavily Democratic election year. The partisan vote was D's 88-11 Harris, I's 49-46 Trump, R's 92-8 Trump. Adjusting to the more likely 33D/33I/33R. |
Harris 46.9, Trump 50.2 |
|
x |
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| CURRENT TURNOUT ASSUMPTION: 34D/30I/37R. |
| |
| 2020 EXIT POLL: - 34D/30I/37R without leaners (PDF); Demo - White 65%, Black 23%, Hispanic/Latino 5%, Asian 2%; Age - 18-29(14%), 30-49(30%), 50-64(31%), 65<(24%). 64% no college degree. 36% College Grad. White College Degree 26%, White College No Degree 39%, Non-white College Degree 11%, Non White Non College Grad 25%. |
To see results of 2020 north carolina polls below, click here
Best 2020 north carolina Poll: Trafalgar Group
Polls that got north carolina right: Trafalgar Group, AtlasIntel, Insider Advantage
Polls that got north carolina wrong: Ipsos, Emerson College, Survey USA, RMG Research |
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