| POLITICAL REF'S CURRENT TURNOUT MODEL: Party ID: 37D/26I/37R. Gender ID: 48/52 M/F. Education ID: 60% no degree, 40% College Degree. Racial ID: 67% White, 13% Black, 13% Latino, 4% Asian, 4% Other. Regional ID: 20% East, 23% Midwest, 35% South, 22% West. I think the party split will be 50/50 because both Gallup and Pew have found that more Americans identify as Republican or Republican leaning in massive surveys this year. I believe this is actually a conservative estimate, when it may be more likely that Republicans and Republican leaners could outnumber their Democrat couterparts based on the Gallup and Pew numbers. |
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| TURNOUT MODEL EXPLAINED: I apply a turnout model to every poll and determine a bias score. I give considerable deference to pollster modeling. Once the bias is definite and excessive, however, I will correct the poll before including it in the Political Ref's average. The pollster's topline is always included in the pollster average as is. I look at five key poll sample categories, party ID, gender ID, education ID, racial ID and age ID. If any one of these categories is missing, the poll's credibility suffers. |
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| WHAT POLLS DO I INCLUDE? I mostly include polls that RealClearPolitics.com will include, although I occassionally add a poll that I think brings good data. I disagree with some of their decisions about what polls to include, but becuase most fair minded political observers will look at RCP I want to offer a take on the average. |
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