Political Ref | April 28, 2025 | Permalink

First, this poll surveys all adults, not just voters. Generally speaking polls of all adults will favor Democrats because Democrat leaners register less than Republicans. If you include all non-registered voters your sample leans more left.

Because all adults are polled, illegals are included in this poll. In 2022, 11 million people, or a little over 3%, of the US population were illegal migrants. Biden would proceed to leave the border open for all of 2023 and much of 2024, so the number is likely much higher now, probably 4 or even 5% of the population. This poll includes these people who are very likely to view Trump with hostility.

Political polls should only include voters because politicians only respond to voters. If you don't vote your opinion doesn't matter in a democratic nation. Democratic leaning media have used this invalid method of political polling to reach poll results more favorable to the left's viewpoint for decades.

Not only does this poll inflate the left's share of this poll by including all adults, but it's using a biased polling panel. The Ipsos online panel consistently produces the most left-leaning poll results within legacy media polling. During the election, ABC and Reuters both used Ipsos. Their results were consistently three to seven points left of the rest of the pack.

A sampling of Ipsos polls during the last election show Trump trailing by six, seven and six when other polls showed a much closer race. Ipsos never showed Trump in the lead. The last poll before the election showed Harris up three. Pollsters will often release their most favorable poll for the Republican just before the election, hoping observers only judge their work based on their last poll. They will use inflated numbers for the left in the months leading up to the election.

This poll that Axios has trumpeted represents the worst sort of biased polling. The sample includes illegals and many Dem leaning adults who will never vote. The pollster used the Ipsos panel, which always leans Dem.

While Trump should take heed of the shift among independents, he should not radically change his policy agenda. This period of time was always going to feature a drop in Trump's approval because he's making tough governing decisions. This is normal for any president that actually wants to get something done. The results are all that matter.

He should ignore the leftist media noise claiming that Americans view him as a dictator. That number is always close to 50 anyway because the Dems have demonized him so thoroughly. If his policies succeed, this period is just a blip.