IOWA POLLS: Ernst +1.8 - Greenfield 46.2, Ernst 48.0 REF'S: Ernst +2.4 - Greenfield 45.6, Ernst 48.2 RETURN TO SENATE RACES 2016 Exit Poll- 31D/35I/34R without leaners (PDF) 2018 Exit Poll - 36D/17I/47R with leaners (PDF) Pollsters' Averages Chart Political Ref's Averages Chart Poll Date Sample + Party Distribution Result Pollster Avg Ref's Avg Emerson 10/29-10/31 604LV Greenfield 51, Ernst 48 x   Political Ref's Take on the above poll No adjustment necessary. Included     Insider Adv 10/30 400LV Greenfield 45, Ernst 51 x   Political Ref's Take on the above poll No adjustment necessary. Included     Des Moines Register 10/26-10/29 814LV Greenfield 42, Ernst 46 x   Political Ref's Take on the above poll No adjustment necessary. Included     Quinnipiac Univ 10/23-10/27 1225LV Greenfield 46, Ernst 48 x   Political Ref's Take on the above poll No adjustment necessary. Included     Monmouth Univ 9/18-9/22 402RV, 34D/32I/34R Greenfield 47, Ernst 47 x   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The even turnout includes too many Democrats. Will adjust to R+3, or 31D/35I/34R. Turnout was even and the candidates were even, so they likely performed evenly among Independents. Assuming candidates won their parties 90-5 and split Independents 45-45. Applying these voter ratios to the more likley turnout, Greenfield receives 44.0 to Ernst 47.9. Greenfield 44.0, Ernst 47.9   x New York Times/Sienna College 9/16-9/22 501LV, 29D/34I/33R Greenfield 42, Trump 40 >1month   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The turnout looks reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included   >1month Selzer & Co. 9/14-9/17 658LV, Party distribution not provided Greenfield 45, Ernst 42 Repeat   Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution or voter ratios within those parties are provided. Excluded     Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Assoc 8/30-9/5 800LV, Party distribution not provided Greenfield 45, Ernst 50 >1month   Political Ref's Take on the above poll Ernst wins by 4 points among those 50 and older. Included   >1month PPP 8/13-8/14 729RV, 34D/32I/34R Greenfield 48, Ernst 45 >1month   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The even partisan turnout assumption undersamples Republicans, will adjust to a R+3 or 31D/35I/34R sample. I will also apply a registered voter screen to the Independent column because registered voter polls pull in far too many non-voters. The voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. The turnout assumption was even but Greenfield leads by 3 so she must have done a little better with Independents. Will assume she did three points better, or won 17-14, or 53-44%. The registered voter screen drops that to 36-31.3%. Assuming each candidate wins their party 90-5, the final adjusted result is Greenfield 42.2 to Ernst 43.1. Greenfield 42.2, Ernst 43.1   >1month Monmouth Univ 7/30-8/3 401LV, 34D/32I/34R Greenfield 47, Ernst 48 >1month   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The even turnout oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to R+3 or 31D/35I/34R. According to the poll data, Greenfield wins D's 94-3, I's split 43 for Greenfield and 42 for Ernst, and Ernst wins R's 93-4. Applying these ratios to the more likely voter turnout, Greenfield receives 45.6 to Ernst 47.3. Greenfield 45.6, Ernst 47.3   >1month Data for Progress 7/24-8/2 1101LV, Party Distribution Not Available Greenfield 42, Ernst 40 >1month   Political Ref's Take on the above poll Assuming a turnout of 31D/35I/34R. According to the poll data, Greenfield won D's 87--3, I's 38-28 and Ernst won R's 84-4. Applying these ratios to the likely turnout, Greenfield receives 41.6 to Ernst 39.3. Greenfield 41.6, Ernst 39.3   >1month Spry Strategies 7/11-7/16 701LV, 35D/26I/38R Greenfield 44.6, Ernst 42.8 >1month   Political Ref's Take on the above poll Party distribution of R+3 matches 2016. No adjustment necessary. Included   >1month Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co 6/7-6/10 674LV, Party Distribution and Greenfield/Ernst ratio not provided Greenfield 46, Ernst 43 >1month   Political Ref's Take on the above poll Party distribution and Greenfield/Ernst ratios not provided, so adjustment is impossible. No adjustment possible. Result excluded from our average.     Civiqs 6/6-6/8 865RV, 32D/32I/36R Greenfield 48, Ernst 45 >1month   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution matches 2016 very closely. No adjustment is necessary. No adjustment necessary   >1month PPP 6/3-6/4 963RV, 35D/30I/35R Greenfield 45, Ernst 43 Repeat   Political Ref's Take on the above poll Iowa leaned slightly Republican in 2016 and heavily so in 2018. This voter distribution shows a dead heat between the parties which is likely wrong. Adjusting the party distribution to 31D/35I/34R. The Greenfield/Ernst vote ratios within each party are not given but can be inferred. Greenfield likely did about 2 points better with Independents because she leads by 2 in the poll with an even party turnout. Ernst had no advantage in the turnout assumption when she should have had an R+3 advantage. Adding three points to the R column, assuming she won R's 90-5, should add 2.6 points to Ernst's number while all else remains equal. Adjusted result, Greenfield 45.0 to Ernst 45.6. Greenfield 45, Ernst 45.6   Repeat