MONTANA POLLS: Bullock +3.3 - Bullock 45.0, Daines 48.3 REF'S AVG: Daines 5.7 - Bullock 43.8, Daines 49.5 RETURN TO SENATE RACES 2016 Exit Polls - Unavailable 2018 Exit Polls - 38D/13I/50R with leaners (PDF) Pollsters' Averages Chart Political Ref's Averages Chart Poll Date Sample + Party Distribution Result Pollster Avg Ref's Avg New York Times/Sienna 9/14-9/16 625LV, 28D/36I/33D Bullock 44, Daines 45, x   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The R+5 sample is low. Will adjust to R+10, or 28D/31I/38R. According to the poll data, Bullock won D's 95-3, I's split at 41-41 and Daines won R's 92-3. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Bullock receives 40.5 to Daines 48.5. Bullock 40.5, Daines 48.5   x Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Assoc. 8/30-9/5 800LV, 25D/39I/36R Bullock 47, Daines 50 x   Political Ref's Take on the above poll Party distribution for 2016 is unavailable, but seems reasonable looking at 2018. No adjustment necessary. Included   x Emerson College 7/31-8/2 584LV, 30D/25I/45R Bullock 44, Daines 50 x   Political Ref's Take on the above poll Party distribution for 2016 is unavailable, but seems reasonable looking at 2018. No adjustment necessary. Included   x Spry Strategies 7/11-7/16 700LV, 23.4D/44.2I/31.5R Bullock 43.9, Daines 47.1 >6weeks   Political Ref's Take on the above poll The very large percentage of Independents makes it hard to adjust this poll. If I were going to adjust it, I would assume more Republicans should be added but the problem is that they may already be there in the Independent columns. R+8 is a bit low for Montana. The Independent column includes many leaners that were not required to pick a party so we have to rely on the likely voter screen, which seems solid here. No adjustment necessary. Included   >6weeks Civiqs 7/11-7/13 873RV, D28/I34/R28 Bullock 47, Daines 49 >6weeks   Political Ref's Take on the above poll I do not have an exit poll from 2016. The 2018 exit poll was R+12, but the GOP turns out better in off year elections. An R+10 sample seems reasonable in a presidential year. No adjustment necessary No adjustment necessary   >>6weeks PPP 7/9-7/10 1224RV, 29D/33I/37R Bullock 46, Daines 44 >6weeks   Political Ref's Take on the above poll I do not have an exit poll from 2016. The 2018 exit poll was R+12, but the GOP turns out better in off year elections. An R+8 sample seems reasonable in a presidential year. No adjustment necessary No adjustment necessary   >6weeks University of Montana Big Sky Poll 6/17-6/26 517RV, Party Distribution Not Provided Bullock 47.3, Daines 43.0 >6weeks   Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution or voter ratios within parties were provided. Adjustment not possible. Excluded. Adjustment not possible. Excluded.