POLLS: Graham +0.3 - Harrison 45.7, Graham 46.0 REF'S: Graham +11.2 - Harrison 41.1, Graham 52.3 RETURN TO SENATE RACES 2016 Exit Poll - 27D/26I/46R without leaners (PDF) 2018 Exit Poll - 35D/12I/54R with leaners (PDF) Straight Poll Averages Chart Freedom Window Averages Chart Poll Date Sample + Party Distribution Result Pollster Avg Ref's Avg Morning Consult 9/11-9/20 764LV, Party distribution not provided Harrison 45, Graham 46 x   Political Ref's take on the above poll Neither party distribution or voter ratios of those parties is provided. Excluded     Quinnipiac Univ 9/10-9/14 969LV, 26D/33I/34R Harrison 48, Graham 48 x   Political Ref's take on the above poll The R+8 sample undersamples Republicans. Will adjust to the R+19 sample, or 27D/26I/46R. According to the poll data, Harrison won D's 98-2, I's 50-45 and Graham won R's 89-8. Applying these voter ratios to the more likely voter turnout, Harrison receives 42.2 to Graham 53.2. Harrison 42.2, Graham 53.2   x Quinnipiac Univ. 7/30-8/3 914RV, 25D/34I/31R Harrison 44, Graham 44 x   Political Ref's take on the above poll The R+6 sample undersamples Republicans. Will adjust to the R+19 sample, or 27D/26I/46R. According to the poll data, Harrison won 94-3, I's 47-37 and Graham won R's 89-5. Applying these ratios to the more likely voter turnout, Harrison receives 39.9 to Graham 51.4. Harrison 39.9, Graham 51.4   x