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2020 AVERAGES: NATIONAL VOTE | ELECTORAL COL. | HOUSE | SENATE | Battlegrounds: FL - OH - AZ - GA - IA - NC - MI - PA - WI - NH - NV - TX - MN

Biden's big post-debate lead has faded as young people become less likely to vote
Political Ref | October 9, 2020
 
Four polls released Friday suggest that Biden's post-debate bounce is gone.
 
 
Biden's lead has collapsed to only five points among registered voters, which traditionally is a voter sample that benefits Democrats. In the Hill/HarrisX poll, Biden leads Trump 45-40. As is frequently the case, this poll oversampled Democrats, assuming 5% more D's than R's will vote. In 2016 we had a D+3 turnout. I believe 2020 will see a D+1, or 35D/29I/34R. According to this poll, Biden won D's 83-10%, I's split at 38-34% and Trump won R's 82-10%. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden would receive 43.5 to Trump 41.2. This margin matches 2016 almost exactly.
 
 
Worryingly for Democrats, this poll also shows that young people are becoming less likely to vote, one of the problems that hurt them badly in 2016. Specifically, frustration with multiple messages from the Democratic Party about how and when to vote is leading many young people to dismiss the process as too complicated to bother with.
 
 
Another poll of registered voters released Friday by Ipsos shows a 7-point lead for Biden, 48-41%. For my average I would view this as more likely an indication that the race is around 47-43% nationally among likely voters. Ipsos assumes Democrats do much better in their likely voter model. This assumption runs strongly against the grain and they fail to reveal why they assume this, so I write that off as wishful thinking. Bottom line, any registered voter poll showing Trump down 7 is better than the mean for Trump in 2020. Considering where the polls were shortly after the debate, this is welcome news for the Trump campaign.
 
 
The Global Strategy Group/GBAO (Navigator Research) is a poll I do not include in my average because one of its participants, Global Strategy Group, produces heavily biased polls towards Democrats, earning one of the worst pro-Democrat mean-reverted bias scores on FiveThirtyEight.com of D+1.8. This poll, however, is showing the race closer than it has shown all year at Biden +8.
 
 
The poll almost always shows a bigger lead for Biden than most other pollsters, so ignore the actual number and look at the trend. The trend is what matters. The previous six polls beginning in mid-August show Biden up by 10, 13, 9, 11, 11 and 10 respectively. (Polls released: 8/11, 8/25, 9/1, 9/15, 9/22, 9/29). The Trump camp no doubt likes this trend.
 
 
Last, the Pew Research Center released a registered voter poll showing a bigger lead for Biden, 52-42%. This poll included 50% Democrats or Dem leaners and 45% Republicans and Republican leaners. This 50D/45R ratio is better for Democrats than 2016, when it was 51D/48R.
 
 
We have several reasons to doubt this shift to a more Democratic electorate. The recent Gallup poll suggested turnout would be similar to 2016, Republicans have done a better job of registering voters in the battleground states, Republicans have knocked many more doors than Democrats, they have more enthusiasm for their candidate, not just against the opposition, and Democrats are relying heavily on mail voting which in a normal election loses 400% more ballots to mistakes than in-person voting.
 
 
When so much of the electorate will be mailing in their votes, including many new voters, there is a strong chance that the failure rate will be substantially higher and impact a much larger share of the vote. We have good reasons to believe partisan turnout will be about even. If it is even, this 10-point lead for Biden shrinks to about 5 points, more in line with the previous three polls. If Biden is ahead by 1 to 5 points right now, we have returned to pre-debate polling levels. Trump is very much in the game.
 
 
         
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