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2020 AVERAGES: NATIONAL VOTE | ELECTORAL COL. | HOUSE | SENATE | Battlegrounds: FL - OH - AZ - GA - IA - NC - MI - PA - WI - NH - NV - TX - MN

lol! Here's why you can ignore the ABC/ Washington Post poll showing Biden up 12
Political Ref | October 11, 2020
 
This poll contains either mathematical errors, polling method errors or both. Whether they are intentional or accidental is unprovable, but I'm sure you can figure it out.
 
 
I believe we have an example of either a manipulated poll or a poll based on bad polling methods and I will demonstrate it for you. I am happy to assume this mistake was unintentional because it can happen in polling. For the sake of argument, however, if the polling company intended to deceive the mistake it made was reporting the voter ratio for Independents as 52-40 for Biden.
 
After applying this number to the reported voter turnout of 35D/30I/30R, it becomes seemingly impossible to make the rest of the numbers add up. Either that or the numbers were rounded leading to a total higher than 100, which happens in polling, and we are required to assume unrealistically bad numbers for Trump among Democrats and Republicans, numbers no other pollster is finding.
 
First, I will provide a little context. This poll assumes that 82% of registered voters will vote. This is much higher than 2016 when 69% of registered voters turned out. The majority of the 13% more voters this poll assumes will vote in 2020 are likely Democratic leaning voters (See Voter Turnout Assumptions), no doubt boosting Biden. The recent Gallup poll showing that turnout will likely match 2016, using the traditionally accurate measure of how much thought respondents are giving to the election, conflicts with this and suggests many of these voters won't turn out and vote.
 
So we know this is a Democratic leaning sample already by virtue of the very high registered voter turnout it assumes. Now we will look closer at the internals. Voter ratios for I's were provided, but not for D's and R's. We know Biden won I's 52-40 because the pollster told us. Unfortunately, there is no way to make the numbers work after we apply the Independent's ratio to their reported 30% share of the vote. See the calculations at the bottom of this article.
 
Possibly one can make the math work if you assume rounding can cause the totals to exceed 100, which happens in polling. Okay, fair enough, but even if there was a mathematically possible way to make these numbers work, it would still require an assumption that Biden would win D's 97-1% and Trump would only win R's 82-15%, or something along those lines, and no pollster is finding this kind of split.
 
To find this kind of split a pollster would have to call only the bluest states. You might find a split like that in California or New York where pressure is overwhelming to abandon Trump and support Biden. Other pollsters are finding a much more favorable split for Trump than that nationally, and this poll purports to represent a national sample.
 
This could have been intentional or accidental, but I think intent is likely considering the level of pollster we are talking about. For this reason, this poll will be excluded from my average, although included in the pollster average.
 
It seems the pollster knows its sample is hard to defend because it went out of its way to caution that Trump has plenty of ammunition to turn this number around and they reminded us that they had an equally ridiculous poll in 2016, which turned out to be completely wrong. Thanks for telling us how bad you are at your job, lol!
 
CALCULATIONS: Biden receives 15.6 and Trump 12.0 toward their overall totals of 54 and 42 from Independents. To reach 54 Biden needs 38.4 from the remaining 35% Dems, 30% GOP a 2% third party. To reach 42 Trump needs 30% from 35% Dems, 30% GOP and 2% third party. Biden's 38.4 plus Trump's 30.0 = 68.4. The needed remaining vote of 68.4 is greater than what is remaining available, 67.0%. If we assume the difference comes from the 5% not included in the 35D/30I/30R turnout sample, that leaves only 1.6% for third parties, but the poll says they earn 3%. Pollsters point out all the time that numbers are rounded and may not add up exactly to 100%.
 
 
 
         
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