VIEW HOME PAGE
2020 AVERAGES: NATIONAL VOTE | ELECTORAL COL. | HOUSE | SENATE | Battlegrounds: FL - OH - AZ - GA - IA - NC - MI - PA - WI - NH - NV - TX - MN

Why Amy Coney Barrett's arrival on stage helps Trump
Political Ref | October 12, 2020
 
Republicans are motivated by more Supreme Court issues than Democrats
 
More Americans oppose Court packing than appointing Barrett, a net plus for Trump
 
Nothing unites Republicans more than the Supreme Court
 
Anything that puts coronavirus on the back burner helps Trump
* * * * * FULL STORY BELOW * * * * *
 
All images are public domain
 
Regardless of what polling shows at this point, and a number of polls are wrong, an unprecedented election-time Supreme Court confirmation fight can reset the election in Trump's favor.
 
Along with several other issues, these confirmation hearings bring the Affordable Care Act back to the main stage, an issue where Biden strongly leads Trump. Health care ranks as the second most important issue overall according to Pew. Democratic leaning voters are more motivated by this issue than any other (84%). At first glance this looks like a bad thing for Trump.
 
 
If it motivates Democrats to vote then it can't be good for the President? First, it's likely that Democrats, unlike Independents, are already maximally motivated. Second, the confirmation fight brings up more issues that motivate the right than the left.
 
 
A non-Supreme Court issue, the economy, remains the top issue and there's no doubt that will remain the case in light of the pandemic related struggles many face. This fact is what keeps Trump in this race. The Supreme Court ranks third, which in the minds of poll respondents amounts to this appointment combined with the possibility that Biden will pack the Court if he wins. Believe it or not, these three issues all exceed the coronavirus as an issue, the issue that has dogged the President and consumed our news for six months.
 
 
As for the Supreme Court, more Americans support (38%) Trump appointing a nominee now than support Court packing (32%). So the Supreme Court issue likely bends slightly in favor of the President. This is doubly true because Barrett will be on the Court soon while the Court packing issue will continue to grow to a fever pitch over the next three weeks. Even the leftist Atlantic acknowledges that this issue has the potential to derail Biden.
 
As we look through the remainder of the top issues, it becomes clear why this confirmation is good for Trump's reelection chances. Rounding out the top twelve issues in order are violent crime, foreign policy, gun policy, race inequality, immigration, economic inequality, climate change and abortion.
 
 
Republicans are more motivated by violent crime (74-46), gun policy (60-50), immigration (61-46) and abortion (46-35). Democrats are more motivated by race inequality (76-24), economic inequality (65-25) and climate change (68-11).
 
Only two of the issues that most motivate Democrats are Supreme Court issues, health care and racial inequality. Health care only shows up here because the Court will soon rule again on the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act. Most Americans probably view it more as a policy matter.
 
 
By contrast, four of the top twelve issues motivate Republican voters more than Democrats, violent crime (law enforcement), gun policy, immigration and abortion. One might quarrel that immigration represents an issue that arises in a voters mind when thinking about the Supreme Court, but most Republicans know well how federal judges have taken the leading role in fighting the President's immigration reform agenda.
 
 
The bottom line, more Supreme Court issues motivate Republicans than Democrats and Court packing is opposed by more than oppose Barrett's nomination. On balance with respect to the issues it raises, this confirmation helps the President.
 
Trump will also benefit from this because some Republican voters who now oppose him, a significant number, will likely come home as these issues take prominence. Nothing unites Republicans like the Supreme Court. Last, the entire Supreme Court affair overshadows the coronavirus at a time when Trump most needs the change of subject. It is fair to say that as we descend into two weeks of constant focus on the Supreme Court, the coronavirus will lose its dominance as a national issue during that period, which can only help Trump.
 
 
         
  Follow Me on Parler   Follow Me on Facebook   Follow Me on Twitter   Follow Me on YouTube   Follow Me on Minds