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2020 AVERAGES: NATIONAL VOTE | ELECTORAL COL. | HOUSE | SENATE | Battlegrounds: FL - OH - AZ - GA - IA - NC - MI - PA - WI - NH - NV - TX - MN  
  LATEST POLLS
 

All polls will be posted here as soon as released. They will be incorporated into the averages as soon as possible. All polls show the pollster's result and the Political Ref's take. No projection was closer than the Political Ref's in 2016.

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SEE ALL BATTLEGROUND STATES
Pollster and Date Sample + Party Distribution Result Leader
Monday, November 2, 2021
POLLS ARE UPDATED ON ALMOST EVERY PAGE, TOO NUMEROUS TO LIST HERE. SEE MENU AT THE TOP FOR LINKS. THE LATEST POLLS PAGE WILL RESUME IN 2021. THANKS EVERYONE! - REF
Sunday, November 1, 2021
National Popular Vote
Spry Strategies 10/20-10/23 3500LV, 38D/18I/40R 46.3 47.8 Trump +1.5
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Will adjust to 40D/18I/39R. Trump up 1.5 with 2-point party advantage. Inferred ratios, Biden 90-5 D, 47-45I, Trump 90-5 R. Applying to more likely ratios, Biden reveives 46.4 to Trump 45.2 46.4 45.2 Biden +1.2
National Popular Vote  
IBD/TIPP 10/26-10/30 1072LV, 36D/29I/32R 49.2 44.1 Biden 5.1
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+3 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to 34D/28I/33R. According to the data, Biden won D's 92-4, I's 43.5-44.0 and Trump won R's 90-5. Applying the ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 47.8 and Trump 43.8. Biden receives 45.1 and Trump 43.4. 45.1 43.4 Biden 1.7
National Popular Vote  
Gravis Marketing 10/27-10/29 1281LV, 36D/32I/32R 50 44 Biden +6.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Adjusting to 34D/30I/33R. Biden did 2 points better across party. Ratios inferred, Biden won D's 92-4, I's 48-45, Trump R's 91-5. Applying ratios to more likely turnout, Biden receives 47.3 to Trump 44.9. 47.3 44.9 Biden +2.4
National Popular Vote  
NBC/WSJ 1000RV 44D/11I/39R 52 42 Biden 10.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Adjusting to 44D/11I/43D and applying RV filters to D and I columns. Ratios, 97-2 (95-4), 50-40 (46-40), 93-5. Applying ratios to more likely turnout, Biden receives 49.0 to Trump 46.2. 49.0 46.2 Biden 2.8
Iowa Presidential
Des Moines Register 10/26-10/29 814LV, Not provided Biden 41, Trump 48 Trump +7.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Biden 93-2 D, 35-49 I, Trump 89-4 R Included  
Pennsylvania Presidential
AtlasIntel 10/29-10/30 672LV, 36D/28I/36R Biden 48.5, Trump 49.6 Trump +1.1
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Party distribution is hard to judge because so many I's are left. Included  
Florida Presidential
ABC/Washington Post 10/24- 10/29 824LV, 31D/29I/35R Biden 48, Trump 50 Trump +2.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Sample looks good. No adjustment necessary. Included  
Wisconsin Presidential
Susquehanna Polling and Researh 10/29-10/31 450LV, 30D/32I/32R Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Sample looks good. Included  
Wisconsin Presidential
Emerson College 10/29-10/30 751LV, 32D/33I/33I Biden Biden +7.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Sample looks good, but really prefer a leaners sample at this point. Included  
Saturday, October 31, 2021
Muhlenberg College 10/23-10/28 419LV, 47D/10I/42R Biden 49, Trump 44 Biden +5.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll D+5 is too high. Will assume 45D/9I/46R. Voter ratios are inferred, Biden up 5 w/ 5pt partisan adv. Assuming even across party, Biden 85-12 D's, 45-45 I's, Trump 85-12R's. Adjusted Biden receives 47.8 to Trump 48.6. Biden 47.8, Trump 48.6 Trump +0.8
Friday, October 30, 2020
Nevada Presidential
Trafalgar Group 10/28-10/29 1024LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Demographics match. No adjustment necessary. Included  
North Carolina Presidential
Rasmussen Reports 10/28-10/29 800LV, Behind pay wall Biden 47, Trump 48 Trump +1.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Behind pay wall. The party distribution looks reasonable. Included  
Michigan Presidential
RMG Research 10/27-10/29 800LV, 37D/30I/33R Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll I am adjusting the turnout to 40D/20I/39R. Ratios: 95-5D/46-39I/92-7R. Adjusted, Biden receives 49.9 to Trump 45.7. Biden 49.9, Trump 45.7 Biden +4.2
National Popular Vote
Rasmussen Reports 10/25-10/29 1500LV, Party distribution not available 49 46 Biden +3.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll I looked at all the internals provided behind the pay wall. I can't reveal them, but the numbers look very solid. Rasmussen seems to be catching a trend that seems visible in daily life but doesn't show up much in poll, a large group of Dems tired of the wokeness of the new Dem party. Included  
National Popular Vote
IBD/TIPP 10/25-10/29 959LV, 37D/27I/33R 50.5 44.9 Biden +5.6
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+3 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to 34D/28I/33R. According to the data, Biden won D's 94-4, I's 47-44 and Trump won R's 91-5. Applying the ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 47.8 and Trump 43.8. Biden receives 46.7 and Trump 43.8. 46.7 43.8 Biden +2.9
National Popular Vote
Fox News 10/27-10/29 1246LV, 47D/10I/43R 52 44 Biden +8.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+4 is too much. Adjusting to 45D/10I/44R. Voter ratios according to data, Biden 94-4 D, 54-32I (47-39), Trump 92-5R. Assuming a 95% turnout among RV's, which is not going to happen. Applying an RV filter to I's. After adjusting, Biden receives 49.2 to Trump 46.2. 49.2 46.2 Biden +3.0
Thursday, October 29, 2020
Arizona Presidential
Rasmussen Reports 10/27-10/29 800LV, Look good but behind pay wall Biden 45, Trump 49 Trump +4.0
Political Ref's take on the above poll I looked at the internals, which are behind a pay wall. They look solid. Included  
National Popular Vote
Rasmussen Reports 10/24-10/28 1500LV, Party distribution not available 48 47 Biden +1.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll I looked at all the internals provided behind the pay wall. I can't reveal them, but the numbers look very solid. Rasmussen seems to be catching a trend that seems visible in daily life but doesn't show up much in poll, a large group of Dems tired of the wokeness of the new Dem party. Included  
National Popular Vote  
AtlasIntel 10/26-10/28 1726LV, 34D/34I/32R 50.9 46.2 Biden +4.7
Political Ref's Take on the above poll I's are too high, adjusting to 34D/30I/33R. Biden won D's 93-6, I's 48-46, Trump R's 90-9. 49.0 45.6 Biden +3.4
National Popular Vote  
TheHill/HarrisX 10/25-10/28 2824RV, 37D/29I/32R 52 48 Biden +4.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll D+8 is too high. Adjusting to 35D/29I/34R. Voter ratios, Biden 83-13 D, 40-36I, Trump 83-11. 44.2 43.2 Biden +1.0
National Popular Vote  
IBD/TIPP 10/24-10/28 945LV, 37D/26I/33R 50.0 45.4 Biden +4.6
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+3 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to 34D/28I/33R. According to the data, Biden won D's 95-3, I's 48-42 and Trump won R's 94-3. Applying the ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 47.8 and Trump 43.8. Biden receives 46.7 and Trump 43.8. 46.7 43.8 Biden +3.9
National Popular Vote  
Emerson College 10/25-10/26 1121LV, 37D/30I/34R 51 47 Biden +4.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll D+4 too high. Adjusting to 35D/28I/34R. Voter ratios inferred. Biden up 4 with 4-point partisan advantage. Assuming Biden won D's 94-3, I's 48-45 and Trump R's 94-3. Applying rations, Biden receives 47.3 to Trump 45.6. 47.3 45.6 Biden +1.7
National Popular Vote  
RMG Research 10/23-10/24 1265LV, 39D/24I/37R 51 44 Biden +7.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Sample looks good. RMG provided a heavy GOP turnout, which I think the evidence supports. 50 46 Biden +4.0
Maine-2 Presidential
Survey USA 10/23-10/27 509LV Biden 48, Trump 45 Biden +3.0
Wednesday, October 28, 2020
Wisconsin Presidential
Marquette Law School 10/21-10/25 749LV, 45D/8I/45R Biden 48, Trump 43 Biden +5.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll I think there is a large percentage of Dems voting for Trump and we will see an R+3 turnout. This will buck the traditional polls, all of which show a similar result to this poll. Included  
Florida Presidential
Ipsos 10/21-10/27 704LV, 40D/13I/41R Biden 48, Trump 47 x
Political Ref's Take on the above poll D+1 is unlikely, assuming R+3. This is an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. Biden 46.5, Trump 48.5  
Arizona Presidential
Ipsos 10/21-10/27 714LV, 42D/9I/44R Biden 47, Trump 47 TIED
Political Ref's take on the above poll The R+2 is too low, should be R+3 or 4. This is an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. Biden 45.5, Trump 48.5 Trump +3.0
Minnesota Presidential
Survey USA 10/23-10/27 649LV, Not provided Biden 47, Trump 42 Biden +5.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll From poll: Not Insurmountable Leads; 59 and Sunny Forecast for Election Day, Which GOP Will Need if Trump and Lewis Want Drama When Gopher State Votes Are Counted: Included  
Pennsylvania Presidential
RMG Research 10/25-10/27 800LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 51, Trump 45 Biden +6.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll I believe it will be a heavy GOP turnout so I accept RMG's heavy R turnout model. Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2.0
Pennsylvania Presidential
Franklin and Marshall 10/19-10/25 558LV, 48D/11I/41R Biden 50, Trump 44 Biden +6.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll D+8 too high. Will assume 46D/11I/45R. Biden leads by 6 w/ +8D turnout, so Trump +2 across party. Ratios inferred. Biden 87-6 D/s, Trump 48-45 I's, Trump 89-6 R's. Ratios applies, Biden receives 47.7 to Trump 48.1. Biden 47.7, Trump 48.1 Trump +0.4
Pennsylvania Presidential
Survey Monkey 9/30-10/27 10250LV, Not provided Biden 52, Trump 46 Biden +6.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll This pollster has the most pro-Democrat mean-reverted bias on fivethirtyeight.com, +5.0 more favorable to Dems. (Screenshot, Direct Link). This is also an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. Biden 50.5, Trump 47.5 Biden +3.0
National Popular Vote
IBD/TIPP 10/23-10/27 991LV, 37D/25I/34R 50.0 45.4 Biden +4.6
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+3 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to 34D/28I/33R. According to the data, Biden won D's 95-3, I's 49-41 and Trump won R's 95-3. Applying the ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 47.8 and Trump 43.8. Biden receives 47.0 Trump 43.9. 47.0 43.9 Biden +3.1
National Popular Vote  
Rasmussen Reports 10/23-10/27 1500LV, Party distribution not available 47 48 Trump +1.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll I looked at all the internals provided behind the pay wall. I can't reveal them, but the numbers look very solid. Rasmussen seems to be catching a trend that seems visible in daily life but doesn't show up much in poll, a large group of Dems tired of the wokeness of the new Dem party. Included  
National Popular Vote  
YouGov 10/25- 10/27 1365LV, Not provided. Among 1500 RV, 39D/32I/29R 54 43 Biden +11.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll D+10 is wrong. Will adjust to 34D/30I/33R. Data says Biden 90-4 D's, 47-36 I's and Trump 89-6 R's. Biden receives 46.7 to Trump 41.5. 46.7 41.5 Biden +5.2
National Popular Vote  
Survey Monkey 10/25-10/27 9882LV, Not provided 51 47 Biden +4.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Internals that are available do not match the results. Will apply a reduced online filter. This pollster has the most pro-Democrat mean-reverted bias on fivethirtyeight.com, +5.0 more favorable to Dems. (Screenshot, Direct Link). This is also an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. 50 48 Biden +2.0
National Popular Vote  
Ipsos 10/23-10/27 825LV, Not provided. 1110RV, Not provided 52 42 Biden +10.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Data says Biden 92-4 D's, Biden 48-21 I's, Trump 88-6 R's. This is a leaners turnout, 43D/13I/36R. Adjusting to 43D/13I/42R. Applying ratios, 48.3 Biden and 41.4 Trump. 48.3 41.4 Biden +6.9
National Popular Vote  
Spry Strategies 10/20- 10/23 3500LV, 38D/22I/36R 48 46 Biden +2.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Party distribution looks good. Included  
Tuesday, October 27, 2020
National Popular Vote
Leger 10/23-10/25 834LV, 39D/26I/31R 49 41 Biden +8.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+8 sample oversamples Dems. Adjusting to 35D/26I/34R. Biden leads by 8 with an +8 Dem turnout, so they must have done evenly across party. Assuming Biden won D's 91-5, I's split 45-45 and Trump won R's 91-5. Applying ratios, Biden receives 45.3 to Trump 44.7. 45.3 44.7 Biden +0.6
National Popular Vote  
IBD/TIPP 10/22-10/26 970LV, 38D/26I/34R 50.7 46.3 Biden 4.4
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+4 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to 34D/28I/33R. According to the data, Biden won D's 96-3, I's 47-45 and Trump won R's 95-3. Applying the ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 47.8 and Trump 43.8. Biden receives 46.8 Trump 45.0. 46.8 45.0 Biden +1.8
Rasmussen Reports 10/22-10/26 1500LV, Party distribution not available 49 47 Biden +2.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll I looked at all the internals provided behind the pay wall. I can't reveal them, but the numbers look very solid. Rasmussen seems to be catching a trend that seems visible in daily life but doesn't show up much in poll, a large group of Dems tired of the wokeness of the new Dem party. Included  
North Carolina Presidential
Ipsos 10/21- 10/27 647LV, Not provided. For all respondents (41D/11I/44R) Biden 49, Trump 48 Biden +1.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distributions for voter ratios are provided. This is an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. Biden 47.5, Trump 49.5  
North Carolina Presidential
RMG Research 10/24-10/26 800LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 48, Trump 47 Biden +1.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll I think the evidence points to a heavy Republican turnout so I will use his heavy R model. Biden 47, Trump 49 Trump +2.0
North Carolina Presidential
Survey USA 10/23-10/26 627LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 48, Trump 48 TIED
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Funny, they saw a radical shift after the early voter went heavily Republican. According to the data, Biden won D's 93-4, I's 48-39 and Trump won R's 90-3. Biden should be ahead based on these numbers. This tie result seems like a realization that they are undersampling a big portion of Trump voters. Excluded because the numbers don't square with the results. Excluded  
Monday, October 26, 2020
National Popular
Rasmussen Reports 10/21-10/25 1500LV, Party distribution not available 47 48 Trump +1.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll I looked at all the internals provided behind the pay wall. I can't reveal them, but the numbers look very solid. Rasmussen seems to be catching a trend that seems visible in daily life but doesn't show up much in polls, a large group of Dems tired of the wokeness of the new Democratic party. Included  
National Popular
IBD/TIPP 10/21-10/25 982LV, 37D/28I/33R 51.7 44.7 Biden +7.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+4 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to 34D/28I/33R. According to the data, Biden won D's 96-4, I's 49-42 and Trump won R's 93-4. Applying the ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 47.8 and Trump 43.8. Full explanation below. 47.7 43.8 Biden +4.0
Texas Presidential
YouGov 10/13-10/2 1000LV, Not provided Biden 45.9, Trump 51.4 Trump +5.5
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Will assume 32D/26I/40R. According to the data, Biden won D's 96-3, Trump won I's 51-34 and R's 93-6. Biden receives 42.0 to Trump 51.4. Biden 42.0, Trump 51.4 Trump +9.4
Texas Presidential
New York Times/Sienna 10/20- 10/25 802LV, 31D/29I/35R Biden 43, Trump 47 Trump +4.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll I do not include New York Times polls in my averages because they do not reveal the number of voters polled to find it's likely voter pool. This is a constant and fundamental failure of Transparency that can impact Independents in particular, where they often find their leads for Democrats. Excluded  
Pennsylvania Presidential
Insider Advantage 10/25 400LV, 45D/8I/43.5R Biden 45.5, Trump 48.4 Trump +2.9
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution matches what I expect. According to the data, Biden won D's 80-16, I's 59-22 and Trump won R's 87-11. Included  
Pennsylvania Presidential
Univ of Wisconsin-YouGov 10/13-10/21 669LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 52, Trump 44 SEE *NOTE*
Political Ref's Take on the above poll *NOTE* - THIS POLL HIDES THE INTERNALS OF EACH STATE AND FAILS BASIC EXPECTATIONS OF TRANSPARENCY IN POLLING. Also, neither party distribution or voter ratios provided. Excluded  
Wisconsin Presidential
Univ of Wisconsin-YouGov 10/13-10/21 647LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 53, Trump 44 SEE *NOTE*
Political Ref's Take on the above poll *NOTE* - THIS POLL HIDES THE INTERNALS OF EACH STATE AND FAILS BASIC EXPECTATIONS OF TRANSPARENCY IN POLLING. Also, neither party distribution or voter ratios provided. Excluded  
Michigan Presidential
Univ of Wisconsin-YouGov 10/13-10/21 681LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 52, Trump 42 SEE *NOTE*
Political Ref's Take on the above poll *NOTE* - THIS POLL HIDES THE INTERNALS OF EACH STATE AND FAILS BASIC EXPECTATIONS OF TRANSPARENCY IN POLLING. Neither party distribution or voter ratios provided. Excluded  
Sunday, October 25, 2020
North Carolina Presidential
YouGov 10/20- 10/23 1022"LV," 36D/29I/33R Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Party distribution looks good. No adjustment necessary Included  
North Carolina Presidential
Trafalgar Group 10/20-10/22 1098LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 46, Trump 49 Trump +3.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The gender, racial and age demographics match well. Included  
Florida Presidential
YouGov 10/20-10/23 1228RV, 35D/29I/36R Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The voter turnout this year will be different than usual. Assuming 35D/24I/38R. According to the data, Biden won D's 94-4, Trump won I's at 44-46 and R's 91-8. Applying these ratios to the turnout, Biden receives 46.5 to Trump 47.5. Biden 46.5, Trump 47.5 Trump +1.0
Georgia Presidential
YouGov 10/20-10/23 1090LV, 36D/27I/36D Biden 48, Trump 48 TIED
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Sample will be adjusted to 34D/28I/38R. According to the data Biden won D's 97-2, Trump won I's 50-40 and R's 95-3. Applying ratios, Biden receives 48.1 to Trump 50.8. Biden 48.1, Trump 50.8 Trump +2.7
Pennsylvania Presidential
Gravis Marketing 10/23 41D/23I/36R Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll D+5 assumes too big a partisan advantage for D's. Adjusting to 42D/16I/41R. Biden has a 7-point lead with a 5-partisan advantage, suggesting he did only moderately better across party. We know he won I's 55-35, gaining 4.5 points of his 7-point lead there. Will assume he won D's 85-12 and Trump won R's 87-10. Applying these ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 48.6 to Trump 46.3. Biden 48.6, Trump 46.3 Biden 2.3
National Popular Vote
IBD/TIPP 10/20-10/24 1006LV, 37D/29I/33R 51.6 44.4 Biden +7.2
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+4 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to 34D/28I/33R. According to the data, Biden won D's 95.5-5, I's 49-43 and Trump won R's 91-5. Applying the ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 47.8 and Trump 43.8. Full explanation below. 47.8 43.8 Biden +4.0
Michigan Presidential
Gravis Marketing 10/24 679LV, 37D/34I/30R Biden 55, Trump 42 Biden +13.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+7 includes too few Dems, far too few R's and too many I's. Will adjust to 40D/20I/39R. Voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Biden has a 13-point lead with a 7-point partisan advantage, suggesting Biden did well across party. Will assume Biden won D's 97-2, I's 50-38 and Trump won R's 90-5. Adjusting, Biden receives 50.8 to Trump 43.5. Biden 50.8, Trump 43.5 Biden +7.3
Texas Presidential
Univ. of Texas at Tyler 10/13- 10/20 925LV, 33D/27I/40R Biden 48, Trump 45 Biden +3.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Voter ratios are not provided and this is too complicated to infer. Excluded  
Saturday, October 24, 2020
Georgia Presidential
WSB TV/Landmark Comm 10/20 500LV, Party distribution is not provided Biden 45, Trump 49 Trump +4.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Trump leads among white voters with 72% support and among seniors by 10%. Included  
Arizona Presidential
Susquehanna Polling & Research 10/19-10/22 500LV, 35D/24I/41R Biden 46, Trump 46 TIED
Political Ref's take on the above poll Party distribution looks good. No adjustment necessary. Included  
Ipsos 10/14-10/21 658LV, 42D/11I/41R Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4.0
Political Ref's take on the above poll The D+1 oversamples Dems. Will adjust to 41D/11I/45R. Voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Biden leads by 4 with a 1-point partisan advantage. Assuming Biden won D's 90-7, I's split 45-45 and Trump won R's 90-4. Apply ratios, Biden receives 43.7 to Trump 48.3. Biden 43.7, Trump 48.3 Trump +4.6
Rasmussen Reports 10/18-10/19 800LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2.0
Political Ref's take on the above poll 94% of Arizona voters have made up their mind with Biden leading 49-48 with this group. Include  
Michigan Presidential
Zia Poll 10/11-10/18 2851LV, Party distribution not provide Biden 45.0, Trump 49.0 Trump +4.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution or voter ratios are not provided. Excluded  
Trafalgar Group 10/15-10/18 1034LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 45, Trump 47 Trump +2.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The gender, racial and age demographics are consistent with the most recent exit polls. Included  
Fox News 10/17-10/20 1032LV, 45D/14I/41R Biden 51, Trump 40 Biden +11.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll This poll assumes a 93% turnout among registered voters. This will not happen. Excluded  
Iowa Presidential
RMG Research 10/15-10/21 800LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 47.0, Trump 47.0 TIED
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Using the strong GOP turnout model provided by RMG, which I think matches the evidence. Biden 46.0, Trump 49.0 Trump +3.0
Iowa Presidential
Monmouth Univ 10/15-10/19 501RV, 34D/32I/34R Biden 47.0, Trump 48.0 Trump +1.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll I am using the RV model because the LV model just looks unsupportable and the party distribution is not provided for the LV model. Will adjust to 31D/31I/36R. Vote ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Trump leads by 1 with an even turnout, so he did slightly better across party. Assuming Biden won D's 90-5, Trump I's 48-45 and R's 90-5. Applying ratios, Biden receives 43.7 to Trump 48.8. Biden 43.7, Trump 48.8 Trump +5.1
North Carolina Presidential
Meredith College 10/16-10/19 732LV, 36D/33I/30R Biden 48.0, Trump 44.0 Biden +4.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll I looked at the internals and they don't make sense, so I must be missing something. Excluding  
Rasmussen Reports 10/20-10/21 800LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 48, Trump 49 Trump +1.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Candidates are tied at 46-46 among the 94% of certain to vote voters. Included  
Florida Presidential
Rasmussen Reports 10/20-10/21 800LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 46, Trump 49 Trump +3.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Trump leads 50-48 among those certain to vote. Included  
Florida Presidential
St. Pete Polls 10/21-10/22 2527LV, 38D/23I/40R Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Sample looks good. Included  
Florida Presidential
CNN/SSRS 10/15-10/20 847LV, 31D/38I/31R. Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll This poll assumes a 93% turnout among RV and a massive turnout advantage for I's. Not worth considering. Excluded  
Florida Presidential
Survey Monkey 9/25-10/22 14035LV, Error in Reporting Biden 48, Trump 49 Trump +1.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Biden won D's 96-2, I's 62-31 and Trump won R's 94-5. This pollster has the most pro-Democrat mean-reverted bias on fivethirtyeight.com, +5.0 more favorable to Dems. (Screenshot, Direct Link). This is also an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. Biden 46.5, Trump 50.5 Trump +4.0
Pennsylvania Presidential
Muhlenberg College 10/13-10/20 416LV, 47D/10I/41R Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+6 sample oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to D+1, or 45D/10I/44R. Voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Biden has a 7-point lead with a 6-point partisan advantage, suggesting he did very slightly better across party. Assuming Biden won D's 90-7, I's 48-45 and Trump won R's 88-8. Biden receives 45.3 to Trump 46.4. Biden 45.3, Trump 46.4 Trump +1.1
Pennsylvania Presidential
Fox News 10/7-10/20 1045LV, 50D/5I/45R Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+5 sample oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to 45D/5I/44R. According to the data, Biden won D's 89-8, I's split and Trump won R's 89-9. Applying the ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 46.5 to Trump 45.3. Biden 46.5, Trump 45.3 Biden +1.2
Ohio Presidential
Fox News 10/17-10/20 1018LV, 41D/12I/47R Biden 44, Trump 46 Trump +2.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution looks good but they assume a 92% registered voter turnout, which will not happen. No adjustment necessary. Included  
Survey Monkey 9/26-1023 7411LV, Party distribution not available Biden 51, Trump 48 Trump +3.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll This pollster has the most pro-Democrat mean-reverted bias on fivethirtyeight.com, +5.0 more favorable to Dems. (Screenshot, Direct Link). This is also an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. Biden 52.5, Trump 46.5 Trump +6.0
Wednesday October 21, 2020
National Popular Vote  
HarrisX 10/13-10/15 1897RV, 37D/29I/32R 46 42 Biden +4.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+5 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to 34D/29I/33R. According to the data, Biden won D's 83-12, I's 39-34 and Trump won R's 85-10. Applying the ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 42.8 to Trump 42.0. 42.8 42.0 Biden +0.8
National Popular Vote  
YouGov 10/18-10/20 1500RV, 39D/33I/28R 47 40 Biden +7.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+11 sample oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to 34D/30I/33R. According to the data, Biden won D's 85-4, Trump won I's 42-39 and R's 86-5. Applying the ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 42.3 to Trump 42.3. 42.3 42.3 TIED
National Popular Vote  
Rasmussen Reports 10/14-10/20 2500LV, Party distribution not provided 49 46 Biden +3.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Biden won 79% of D's, I's 47-40 and Trump won 82% of R's. Biden leads by 3 having won I's by 7, so Trump must have done several points better across party. Included  
National Popular Vote  
IBD/TIPP 10/16-10/20 1016LV, 37D/28I/33R 48.5 46.0 Biden +2.5
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+4 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to 34D/28I/33R. According to the data, Biden won D's 91-7, I's 45-41 and Trump won R's 93-5. Applying the ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 45.2 and Trump 44.6. Full explanation below. 45.2 44.6 Biden +0.6
Iowa Presidential
Emerson College 10/19-10/21 435LV, 34D/32I/34R Biden 48, Trump 48 TIED
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The even split includes too few Republicans. Adjusting to 34D/29I/37R. According to the data, Biden won D's 86-10, I's split 45-43 and Trump won R's 89-7. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 44.9 to Trump 48.8. Biden 44.9, Trump 48.8 Trump +3.9
Iowa Presidential
New York Times/Sienna 10/18-10/20 753"LV," 28D/37I/33R Biden 46, Trump 43 Biden +3.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The I column is much too big and demonstrates why I don't include NYT polls in my average. They do not identify how many RVs they called to get this LV sample, a serious lack of transparency. This tactic often allows pollsters to include too many I's. Excluded  
Pennsylvania Presidential
Fox News 10/7-10/20 1045LV, 50D/5I/45R Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+5 sample oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to 45D/5I/44R. According to the data, Biden won D's 89-8, I's split and Trump won R's 89-9. Applying the ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 46.5 to Trump 45.3. Biden 46.5, Trump 45.3 Biden +1.2
Pennsylvania Presidential
Suffolk Univ 10/15-10/19 500LV, 45D/12I/39R Biden 48.6, Trump 42.4 Biden +6.2
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+6 samples oversamples Dems. Will adjust to 45D/6I/44R. Voter ratios can be inferred. Assuming Biden won D's 90-7, I's split and Trump won R's 90-7. Applying voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 46.6 to Trump 45.8. Biden 46.6, Trump 45.8 Biden +0.8
Pennsylvania Presidential
CNN/SSRS 10/15-10/20 843LV (Assuming 91% turnout among RV's, very far from reality), Party distribution not provided for LV Biden 53, Trump 43 Biden +10.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution or voter ratios are provided. Excluded  
Pennsylvania Presidential
Quinnipiac Univ 10/16-10/19 1241LV, 40D/21I/33R Biden 51, Trump 43 Biden +8.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+7 sample oversamples Dems. Adjusting to 42D/16I/41R. This is among "self-identified" likely voters, which means it's a RV poll. An RV filter will apply the D and I columns. D's only turned out at a rate of 61% in 2016. According to the data Biden won D's 93-5 (90-7), I's 54-41 (37-28.3) and Trump won R's 90-7. Biden receives 46.6 to Trump 44.4. Biden 46.6, Trump 44.4 Biden +2.2
Tuesday October 20, 2020
Iowa Presidential
Insider Advantage 10/18-10/19 400LV, 29D/24I/38R Biden 45, Trump 44 Biden +1.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll To many I's and not enough D's included in the sample. Adjusting to 38D/17I/45R. According to the data, Biden won D's 94-6, I's 50-30 and Trump won R's 90-7. Biden receives 47.4 to Trump 47.9. Biden 47.4, Trump 47.9 Trump +0.5
North Carolina Presidential
ABC/Wash Post 10/12-10/17 646LV, Party distribution not provided. For RV, 33D/30I/32R Biden 49, Trump 48 Biden +1.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Party distribution looks good. No adjustment necessary. Included  
North Carolina Presidential
Ipsos 10/14-10/20 660LV, Party distribution for LV not provided Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distributions for voter ratios are provided. This is an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. Biden 47.5, Trump 47.5 TIED
Pennsylvania Presidential
Rasmussen Reports 10/18-10/19 800LV, Party distribution not provided. Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution or voter ratios are provided. Excluded  
Ohio Presidential
Rasmussen Reports 10/18-10/19 800LV, Party distribution not available Biden 48, Trump 47 Biden +1.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution or voter ratios are provided. Excluded  
Michigan Presidential
Ipsos 10/14-10/20 686LV, Party distribution for LV not provided Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distributions for voter ratios are provided. This is an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3.0
Georgia Presidential
New York Times/Sienna College 10/13-10/19 759LV, 33D/26I/35R Biden 45, Trump 45 TIED
Political Ref's Take on the above poll This poll does not reveal the number of registered voters it polls, so I exclude it from my averages. This number is important for determining the quality of the likely vote sample. Excluded  
National Popular Vote
Leger 10/17-10/18 821LV, 34D/31I/29R 50 41 Biden +9.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+5 sample is wrong and too many I's are included. Adjusting to 34D/28I/33R. This is also effectively an RV sample so an RV filter will apply to the I column. Voter ratios were not provided but can be inferred. Biden had a 5-point partisan advantage and a 9-point lead, suggesting he did 4 points (12%) better across party. Assuming Biden won D's 92-4, I's 54-38 (37-25.3) and Trump won R's 92-6. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 43.6 to Trump 38.8, or 48.2 to 42.8. 48.2 42.8 Biden +5.4
National Popular Vote
IBD/TIPP 10/15-10/19 1046LV, 37D/29I/32R 48.1 45.8 Biden +2.3
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+5 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to 34D/28I/33R. According to the data, Biden won D's 90-7, I's 45-41 and Trump won R's 94-4. Applying the ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 44.5 and Trump 44.9. Full explanation below. 44.5 44.9 Trump +0.5
Monday, October 19, 2020
Pennsylvania Presidential
Trafalgar Group 10/14-10/16 1051LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 47.5, Trump 46.4 Biden +1.1
Political Ref's Take on the above poll This poll assumed more women than voted in 2016 which favors Dems, racial percentages matched 2016, age assumptions matched. Included  
National Popular Vote
IBD/TIPP 10/14-10/18 1021LV, 37.3D/28I/33.5R 49.6 44.4 Biden +5.2
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+4 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to 34D/28I/33R. According to the data, Biden won D's 92-6, I's 47-36 and Trump won R's 94-4. Applying the data to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 45.8 to Trump 45.7 43.1 Biden +2.6
National Popular Vote
RMG Research 10/15-10/17 1265LV, 40D/24I/36R 51 43 Biden +8.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+4 sample oversampled Democrats. Will adjust to 37D/24I/36R. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 92-5, I's 47-37 and Trump won R's 89-9. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 48.6 to Trump 42.8. 48.6 42.8 Biden +5.8
Pennsylvania Presidential
Ipsos 10/13-10/19 663LV, 43D/10I/41R Biden 49, Trump 45 Biden +4.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+2 oversamples Democrats. This is an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. Biden 47.5, Trump 46.5 Biden +1.0
Wisconsin Presidential
Ipsos 10/13-10/19 663LV, 43D/10I/41R Biden 51, Trump 45 Biden +6.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+2 oversamples Democrats. This is an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. Biden 49.5, Trump 46.5 Biden +3.0
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 18, 2020
Arizona Presidential
YouGov 10/13-10/16 1112"LV" (Claims polled 1064RV to get 1074LV, error there, but this is an RV poll), 34D/34I/31R Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3.0
Political Ref's take on the above poll The D+3 sample oversamples D's. Adjusting to 30D/36I/34R. Biden won D's 98-1, Trump won I's 48-45 and R's 97-2. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 46.3 to Trump 50.6. Biden 46.3, Trump 50.6 Trump +4.3
Wisconsin Presidential
YouGov 10/13-10/16 1112"LV," (out of 1124RV, so this is effectively an RV poll). 34D/32I/33R. Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Too few D's and R's are sampled and too many I's. Adjusting to 36D/28I/36R. This is effectively an RV poll so an RV filter will apply to the I column. According to the data, Biden won D's 95-4, I's 51-42 (44-39) and Trump won R's 94-6. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 48.7 to Trump 46.2 Biden 48.7, Trump 46.2 Biden +2.5
National Popular Vote
IBD/TIPP 10/13-10/17 1021LV, 38D/28I/34R 49.5 44.5 Biden +5.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+4 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to 34D/28I/33R. According to the data, Biden won D's 93.5-5, I's 45-38 and Trump won R's 94-4. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 45.7 to Trump 43.6 45.7 43.6 Biden +2.1
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2020
IBD/TIPP 10/12-10/16 1009LV, 38D/29I/33R 50.3 43.2 Biden +7.1
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+5 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to 34D/30I/33R. According to the data, Biden won D's 93-5, I's 46-37 and Trump won R's 94-4. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 46.7 to Trump 43.8. 46.7 43.8 Biden +2.9
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2020
Michigan Presidential
Trafalagar Group 10/11-10/14 1025LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 45, Trump 46 Trump +1.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll As to demographics, this poll was more favorable to Dems on gender, GOP on race and reflected accurately the distribution. Included  
Florida Presidential
Mason-Dixon 10/8-10/12 625LV, 42D/16I/42R Biden 48, Trump 45 Biden +3.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The even turnout is optimistic for D's. Will assume a midpoint between 2016 and 2018, considering 2018 was a big turnout year for Dems. 42D/12I/44R. According to the data, Biden won D's 87-6, I's 49-43 and Trump won R's 84-9. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 46 to Trump 44. Biden 46, Trump 45 Biden +1.0
Florida Presidential
HarrisX 10/12-10/15 985LV, Party distribution not available Biden 48, Trump 48 TIED
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution or voter ratios are available. Excluded from Ref's Avg
Michigan Presidential
HarrisX 10/12-10/15 1289LV, Party distribution not available Biden 54, Trump 43 Biden +11.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution or voter ratios are available. Excluded from Refs Avg
Pennsylvania Presidential
HarrisX 10/12-10/15 992LV, Party distribution not available Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution or voter ratios are available. Excluded from Ref's Avg
National Popular Vote
IBD/TIPP 10/11-10/15 951LV, 36D/25I/35R 48.7 43.5 Biden +5.2
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The partisan distribution is reasonable. No adjustment necessary Included  
National Popular Vote
Kaiser Family Foundation 10/7-10/12 1048RV, (Their likely voter sample is not real, just a slightly smaller RV sample). 32D/33I/27R; Leaners 49D/6I/43R. 49 38 Biden +11.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+6 sample oversamples Dems and there are too many I's, will adjust to 34D/30I/33R. This is also a registered voter poll so a registered voter screen will apply to the I column. Biden had a 6-point partisan advantage and an 11-point lead, suggesting he did about 5 (15% across three parties) points better across party, assuming Biden won D's 93-3, I's 50-38 (43-35) and Trump won R's 88-9. Applying the new ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 47.5 to Trump 40.5. 47.5 40.5 Biden +7.0
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2020
National Popular Vote
Marist College 10/8-10/13 896LV, 34D/34I/31R 54 43 Biden +11.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Independents are oversampled and Republicans undersampled. Will adjust to 34D/30I/33R. According to the data, Biden won D's 96-4, I's 57-36 and Trump won R's 93-6. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 51.7 to Trump 42.9. 51.7 42.9 Biden +8.8
Pennsylvania Presidential
Insider Advantage 10/12-10/13 400LV, Party distribution not available Biden 46, Trump 43 Biden +3.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution or voter ratios are available. Excluded  
Wisconsin Presidential
Trafalgar Group 10/11-10/13 1043LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 47, Trump 45 Biden +2.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The demographics were slightly more favorable for Dems with gender and slightly more favorable for GOP with age and race, but only by very small margins. Included  
Nevada Presidential
WPA Intelligence 10/7-10/11 37D/31I/32R Biden 44, Trump 42 Biden +2.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Party distribution looks reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included  
Michigan Presidential
RMG Research 10/8-10/13 800LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 48, Trump 42 Biden +6.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll RMG provides a model with a strong Republican turnout, which I believe the evidence supports. I will use that number in my average. Biden 46, Trump 44 Biden +2.0
Arizona Presidential
OH Predictive Insights 10/8-10/11 608LV, 34D/26I/40R Biden 49, Trump 45 Biden +4.0
Political Ref's take on the above poll The party distribution is reasonable . No adjustment necessary. Included  
Arizona Presidential
Monmouth Univ 10/9-10/13 502LV, 32D/32I/36R Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2.0
Political Ref's take on the above poll The party distribution is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included  
National Popular Vote
Rasmussen Reports 10/7-10/13 2500LV, Party distribution not available 50 45 Biden +5.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distributions or voter ratios are provided. Excluded  
North Carolina Presidential
New York Times/ Sienna 10/9-10/13 627LV, 32D/37I/29R Biden 46, Trump 42 Biden +4.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll There are too many Independents in this sample, a frequent feature of NYT polls. It doesn't matter because I never include their polls. They do not reveal the number of registered voters they polled to reach the likely voter pool, a fundamental failure of transparency. Excluded  
National Popular Vote
TheHill/ HarrisX 10/10-10/13 2855RV, 37D/29I/32R 47 40 Biden +7.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+5 turnout oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to 34D/30I/33R. This is a registered voter sample so a registered voter filter will be applied to the I column. According to the data, Biden won D's 87-8, I's 40-32 (38-34) and Trump won R's 86-9. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 44.00 to Trump 41.3. 44.0 41.3

Biden +2.7

 
National Popular Vote
NBC/WSJ 10/9-10/12 1000RV, 42D/13I/36R 53 42 x  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+6 turnout oversamples Democrats. Will assume 42D/13I/41R. Biden has an eleven point lead with a 6-point partisan advantage suggesting he did 5 (15% across 3 parties) points better across party. This is a registered voter poll so a registered voter filter will apply to the I column. Assuming Biden won D's 93-5, I's 54-40 (37-27.3) and Trump won R's 88-10. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 48.0 to Trump 41.7. 48.0 41.7   x
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2020
Florida Presidential
Trafalgar Group 10/11-10/13 1051LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 46, Trump 48 Trump +2.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The gender demographics were more favorable to Dems in this poll than the last election, matched racial demographics and were slightly more favorable to Republicans with age assumptions. No adjustment necessary. Included  
Florida Presidential
Ipsos 10/7-10/14 653LV, 46D/8I/43R Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+3 sample oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to 44D/8I/46R. Voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Biden had a 3-point partisan advantage and a 2-point lead, suggesting Trump did slightly better across party. Assuming Biden won D's 92-5, I's split 45-46 and Trump won R's 93-4. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 45.9 to Trump 48.8. Biden 45.9, Trump 48.7 Trump +2.8
Arizona Presidential
Ipsos 10/7-10/14 667LV, 43D/11I/42R Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2.0
Political Ref's take on the above poll The D+1 sample oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to 43D/12I/47R. Voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Biden leads by 2 with a partisan advantage of 1, suggesting he did slightly better across party than Trump. Assuming Biden won D's 92-3, I's split 45-45 and Trump won R's 91-5. Applying these voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 47.3 to Trump 49.5. This is an online only poll but no adjustment will be made because party distribution was adjusted. Biden 47.3, Trump 49.5 Trump +2.2
Texas Presidential
Survey Monkey 9/15-10/13 13,081LV, Error in reporting Biden 47, Trump 51 Trump +4.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll This pollster has the most pro-Democrat mean-reverted bias on fivethirtyeight.com, +5.0 more favorable to Dems. (Screenshot, Direct Link). This is also an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. Biden 45.5, Trump 52.5 Trump +7.0
Florida Presidential
Survey Monkey 9/15-10/12 12,604LV, Error in reporting Biden 49, Trump 49 TIED
Political Ref's Take on the above poll This pollster has the most pro-Democrat mean-reverted bias on fivethirtyeight.com, +5.0 more favorable to Dems. (Screenshot, Direct Link). This is also an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. Biden 47.5, Trump 50.5 Trump +3.0
Michigan Presidential
Survey Monkey 9/15-10/12 4656LV, Error in reporting Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll This pollster has the most pro-Democrat mean-reverted bias on fivethirtyeight.com, +5.0 more favorable to Dems. (Screenshot, Direct Link). This is also an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. Biden 49.5, Trump 47.5 Biden +2.0
Nevada Presidential
Survey Monkey 9/15-10/12 1915LV, Error in reporting Biden 51, Trump 47 Biden +4.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll This pollster has the most pro-Democrat mean-reverted bias on fivethirtyeight.com, +5.0 more favorable to Dems. (Screenshot, Direct Link). This is also an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. Biden 49.5, Trump 48.5 Biden +1.0
Pennsylvania Presidential
Survey Monkey 9/15-10/12 6613LV, Error in reporting Biden 52, Trump 47 Biden +5.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll This pollster has the most pro-Democrat mean-reverted bias on fivethirtyeight.com, +5.0 more favorable to Dems. (Screenshot, Direct Link). This is also an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. Biden 50.5, Trump 48.5 Biden +2.0
Ohio Presidential
Survey Monkey 9/15-10/12 5056LV, Error in reporting Biden 47, Trump 51 Trump +4.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll This pollster has the most pro-Democrat mean-reverted bias on fivethirtyeight.com, +5.0 more favorable to Dems. (Screenshot, Direct Link). This is also an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. Biden 45.5, Trump 52.5 Trump +7.0
National Popular Vote
Survey Monkey 10/10-10/12 10,971LV, 49D/9I/42R 52 46 Biden +6.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The ratings are poor for this poll but it has an 84% race called correctly rate, matching the top two pollsters rated by Silver. Yes, it picks the low-hanging fruit, but it's consistent bias offers stability and the large number of jurisdictions it polls are a big plus. This pollster has the most pro-Democrat mean-reverted bias on fivethirtyeight.com, +5.0 more favorable to Dems. (Screenshot, Direct Link). This is also an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. 50.5 47.5 Biden +3.0
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 13, 2020
Pennsylvania Presidential
Trafalgar Group 10/10-10/12 1034LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 47, Trump 45 Biden +2.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The age and racial demographics match the 2016 exit poll. Included  
Michigan Presidential
Ipsos 10/7-10/13 620LV, 46D/10I/40R Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+6 sample oversamples D's. Will adjust to 43D/10I/42R. Voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Biden had a 6-point partisan advantage and a 7-point lead, suggesting Biden did slightly better across party. Assuming Biden won D's 92-4, I's split 46-45 and Trump won R's 90-5. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 46.3 to Trump 44.0. Biden 46.3, Trump 44.0 Biden +2.3
North Carolina Presidential
Monmouth Univ 10/8-10/11 500LV, 36D/34I/30R Biden 49, Trump 48 Biden +1.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+6 oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to D+3, or 35D/30I/32R. Voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Biden had a +6 partisan advantage but leads by 1, so Trump did about 5 points (15% across three parties) better with Independents and Democrats than Biden did with Independents and Republicans. Assuming Biden won D's 90-6, Trump won I's 50-40 and R's 92-4. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 44.8 to Trump 46.5. Biden 44.8, Trump 46.5 Trump +1.7
North Carolina Presidential
Survey USA 10/8-10/1 669LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll This poll shows Cunningham up by 10 and has an unrepresentative Independent sample. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 98-2, I's split 43-42 and Trump won R's 94-4. Assuming turnout of 35D/30I/35R. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 48.6 to Trump 46.2. Biden 48.6, Trump 46.2 Biden +2.4
North Carolina Presidential
Ipsos 10/7-10/13 660LV, 39D/13I/44R Biden 48, Trump 48 TIED
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The leaners distribution can't be compared to 2016. This is an online only poll, which favor Democrats on average, so an adjustment will be applied. See explanation of the online adjustment. Biden 47, Trump 49 Trump +2.0
North Carolina Presidential
RMG Research 10/7-10/11 800LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 47, Trump 45 Biden +2.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll RMG provides an outcome for a "strong" GOP turnout. I think the evidence points to that. Biden 44, Trump 47 Trump +3.0
New Hampshire Presidential
Univ of New Hampshire 10/9-10/12 899LV, 43D/15I/42R Biden 55, Trump 43 Biden +12.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Party distributrion is reasonable. Included  
MONDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2020
Florida Presidential
Emerson College 10/10-10/12

690LV, 37.2D/27.3I/

35.5R

 Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3.0
Political Ref's take on the above poll The D+1.7 turnout includes too many Dem's. Will adjust to 35D/27I/36R. The voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Biden had a 1.7% turnout advantage and a 3-point lead, suggesting he did slightly better (4%) with Independents and Republicans than Trump did with Independents and Democrats. Assuming Biden won D's 90-5, I split 45-45 and Trump received 88-7. Adjusted, Biden receives 46.2 to Trump 45.6. Biden 46.2, Trump 45.6 Biden +0.6
Pennsylvania Presidential
Whitman Insight Strategies 10/5-10/9 517LV, 44D/15I/42R Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution is very close to my assumption. This is an online poll, which favor Democrats. An adjustment will be applied. See NYT, Are State Polls Any Better than they Were in 2016. I cite the NYT as justification for this adjustment because it goes against their bias. Biden 49.5, Trump 47.5 Biden +2.0
Wisconsin Presidential
Reuters/Ipsos 10/6-10/11 577LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution or voter ratios are provided. This is an online poll, which tend to favor Democrats, so an adjustment will be applied. See NYT, Are State Polls Any Better than they Were in 2016. I rely on the NYT to justify this adjustment because it runs contrary to their bias. Biden 49.0, Trump 46.0 Biden +3.0
Pennsylvania Presidential
Reuters/Ipsos 10/6-10/11 622LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution or voter ratios are provided. This is an online poll, which tend to favor Democrats, so an adjustment will be applied. See NYT, Are State Polls Any Better than they Were in 2016. I rely on the NYT to justify this adjustment because it runs contrary to their bias. Biden 49.0, Trump 46.0 Biden +3.0
Michigan Presidential
New York Times/Sienna College 10/8-10/11 614"LV," 32R/29I/33R Biden 48, Trump 40 Biden +8.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll I do not include New York Times polls in my averages because they do not reveal the number of voters polled to find it's likely voter pool. This is a constant and fundamental failure of Transparency that can impact Independents in particular, where they often find their leads for Democrats. Excluded - Interesting note, the NYT uses a smaller sample for Michigan than Wisconsin despite it having twice the population.  
Wisconsin Presidential
New York Times/Sienna College 10/8-10/11 789"LV," 29D/35I/29R Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll I do not include New York Times polls in my averages because they do not reveal the number of voters polled to find it's likely voter pool. This is a constant and fundamental failure of Transparency that can impact Independents in particular, where they often find their leads for Democrats. Excluded  
National Popular Vote
YouGov 10/9-10/11 1525RV, Party distribution not provided 51, 43 Biden +8.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll This is an online only poll, a registered voter poll and fails to report its party distribution and voter ratios. An online poll adjustment will be made. See NYT, Are State Polls Any Better than they Were in 2016. 48, 44 Biden +4.0
National Popular Vote
RMG Research 10/8-10/10 1240LV, Party distribution not provided 51, 43 Biden +8.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll RMG provides a strong R turnout model, which I believe will happen. That model is included here. 50, 45 Biden +5.0
National Popular Vote
IBD/TIPP 10/7-10/11 851LV, Party distribution not provided 51.9, 43.4 Biden +8.5
Political Ref's Take on the above poll According to the data, Biden won D's 95-3, I's 48-39 and Trump won R's 90-9. Applying these ratios to the turnout I expect of 34D/30I/33R, Biden receives 49.7 to Trump 42.2. 49.7, 42.2 Biden +7.5
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2020
Ohio Presidential
Baldwin Wallace Univ Great Lakes polls 9/30-10/8 1009LV (Within 3.1% margin of error), 36D/22I/42R Biden 45.4, Trump 47.0 Trump +1.6
Political Ref's Take on the above poll According to the data, Biden wins D's 90-6, I's 45-36 and Trump wins R's 88-7. No adjustment necessary. This is an online only poll, a method that tends to oversample Dems. A 2.9% adjustment will be made. See Voter Turnout Assumptions for explanation or the NYT article, Are State Polls Any Better than they Were in 2016. Biden 44.0, Trump 48.5 Trump +4.5
Wisconsin Presidential
Baldwin Wallace Univ Great Lakes polls 9/30-10/8 883LV (Within 3.4% margin of error), 38D/26I/36R Biden 49.2, Trump 42.5 Biden +6.7
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The turnout assumption is reasonable. According to the data, Biden wins D's 95-1, I's 48-32 and Trump wins R's 91-5. This is an online only poll, a method that tends to oversample Dems. A 2.9% adjustment will be made. See Voter Turnout Assumptions for explanation. Biden 47.8, Trump 44.0 Biden +3.8
Pennsylvania Presidential
Baldwin Wallace Univ Great Lakes polls 9/30-10/8 1140LV (Within 3.1% margin of error), 45D/15I/40R Biden 49.6, Trump 44.5 Biden +5.1
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+5 sample oversampled Dems. Adjusting to 42D/16I/41R. According to the data, Biden wins D's 90-7, I's split 40-38 and Trump wins R's 88-8. Applying these voter ratios, Biden receives 47.5 to Trump 45.1. Biden 47.5, Trump 45.1 Biden +2.4
Michigan Presidential
Baldwin Wallace Univ Great Lakes polls 9/30-10/8 1134LV (Outside of 3.2% Margin of Error), 42D/22I/37R Biden 50.2, Trump 43.2 Biden +7.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Adjusting to 40D/20I/39R. According to the data, Biden wins D's 94-2, I's 44-39 and Trump wins R's 92-4. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 48.0 to Trump 44.5. Biden 48.0, Trump 44.5 Biden +3.5
Michigan Presidential
YouGov 10/6-10/9 1190"LV," (This is really a registered voter poll as it assumes a 99% registered voter turnout). 35D/30I/32R Biden 52, Trump 46 Biden +6.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution is reasonable. Will apply a registered voter filter to the I column. According to the data, Biden won D's 96-4, I's 52-43 (35-30.3) and Trump won R's 95-5. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 45.7 to Trump 40.9 Biden 45.7, Trump 40.9 Biden +4.8
Nevada Presidential
YouGov 10/6-10/9 1036"LV," (Assumes a 99% registered voter turnout, will be 70-75%). 37D/29I/31R Biden 49.0, Trump 43.0 Biden +6.0
Political Ref's Take on the Above Poll This poll undersamples I's. Will adjust to 35D/34I/30R. This is also effectively a registered voter poll, so a registered voter filter will apply to the I column. According to the data, Biden won D's 93-6, Trump won I's 50-44 (55-39) and R's 90-8. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 48.2 to Trump 47.8 Biden 48.2, Trump 47.8 Biden +0.4
Iowa Presidential
YouGov 10/6-10/9 1035"LV" (this is really a RV poll, assumes 99%+ turnout of RV. Will really be 70-75%). 32D/34I/35R Biden 49, Trump 49 TIED
Political Ref's Take on the above poll This is really a registered voter poll so a registered voter screen will be applied to the entire sample. See Voter Turnout Assumptions for explanation. Biden receives 45.9 to Trump 52.0. Biden 45.9, Trump 52.0 Trump +6.1
National Popular Vote
*ABC/WaPo 10/6-10/9 752LV, 35D/30I/30R 54, 42 Biden +12.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll I write a detailed article on why this poll should be ignored. You can see it here, LOL! Here's why you can ignore the ABC/ Washington Post poll showing Biden up 12 Excluded from Political Ref's Average
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2020
National Popular Vote
Innovative Research Group 9/29-10/6 2435RV, 38D/21I/36R 47 42 Biden +5.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Will adjust to D+1, or 35D/21I/34R. This is a registered voter poll and a registered voter screen will be applied to the I column (See Voter Turnout Assumptions). According to the data, Biden won D's 86-10, I's 39-32 (38-33) and Trump won R's 82-11. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 41.8 to Trump 38.3, extrapolate that ratio to the 89% of respondents who chose a candidate and Biden receives 46.4 to Trump 42.6. 46.4 42.6 Biden +3.8
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2020
National Popular Vote
TheHill/HarrisX 10/3-10/6 2841RV, 37D/29I/32R 45 40 Biden +5.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+5 party distribution oversampled Dems. Adjusting to D+1, or 35D/29I/34R. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 83-10, I's 38-34 and Trump won R's 82-10. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 43.5 to Trump 41.2. 43.5 41.2 Biden +2.3
Arizona Presidential
Trafalgar Group 10/6-10/8 1087LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 44, Trump 48 Trump +4.0
Political Ref's take on the above poll Age ranges match exit polls. Racial demographics are more favorable to Dems in this poll than the 2016 exit poll. No adjustment necessary. Included  
Georgia Presidential
WSB TV/Landmark Comm 10/7 600LV, Party distribution is not provided Biden 47, Trump 49 Trump +2.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution or voter ratios are provided. Excluded  
Georgia Presidential
Univ of Georgia 9/27-10/6 1106LV, 42D/9I/49R Biden 46.4, Trump 47.5 Trump +1.1
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The leaners party distribution matches 2018. The presidential year could easily match 2018 because it was a big turnout year for Dems. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 95-2, I's 57-12 and Trump won R's 95-3. No adjustment necessary. Included  
Texas Presidential
YouGov 9/25-10/4 908LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 45, Trump 50 Trump +5.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution or voter ratios are provided. Excluded  
National Popular Vote
Pew Research Center 10/6-10/8 10,543RV, 50D/45R 52 42 Biden +10.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll This is a leaners turnout model. In 2016, the leaners turnout was 51D/48R. I think it will be virtually even this year, or 50D/49R, because Republicans have done better registering voters, have more enthusiasm and many Democrats are voting by mail and will have a larger share of their vote voided. Biden leads by 10 with a partisan advantage of 5, suggesting he did 5 points better across party. Assuming Biden won D and D leans 92-4 and Trump won R and R leans 84-11. Applying these ratios to the more likely voter turnout, Biden receives 51.4 to Trump 43.2. This is also a registered voter poll, so a registered voter filter will be applied, Biden receives 50.1 to Trump 44.5. See Vote Turnout Assumptions to see how a registered voter filter works. 50.1 44.5 Biden +5.6
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2020
Texas Presidential
Pulse Opinion Research 10/5-10/6 1000LV, 32D/30I/38I Biden 44, Trump 51 Trump +7.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included  
Florida Presidential
Insider Advantage 10/6-10/7 400LV, Partisan distribution not available Biden 43, Trump 46 Trump +3.0
Political Ref's take on the above poll Trump wins 12% of the black vote, 63% of the white vote, Biden wins Hispanic/Latinos 62-25%. This pollster was among the most accurate in 2016. Included  
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2020
Arizona Presidential
Ipsos 9/29-10/7 833LV, 42D/12I/41R Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2.0
Political Ref's take on the above poll The D+1 sample includes too few Republicans. Adjusting to R+4 or 42D/12I/46R. Biden had a +1 partisan advantage and leads by 2 points, suggesting Biden did slightly better with Republicans and Independents than Trump did with Independents and Democrats. Voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Assuming Biden won D's 92-3, I's 48-47 and Trump won R's 92-5. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 46.7 to Trump 49.2. Biden 46.7, Trump 49.2 Trump +2.5
Wisconsin Presidential
Marquette Law School 9/30-10/4 700LV, 29D/38I/29R Biden 47, Trump 42 Biden +5.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The even turnout is right, but Independents, the most likely respondents to fail to actually show up and vote, are clearly oversampled. I will apply a registered voter screen to the Independent column. 6.4% of the sample were not even registered to vote and are unlikely voters, despite same-day registration, most or all of which likely fell in the I column. Adjusting to 35D/30I/35R. Voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. The turnout was even but Biden leads by 5, suggesting Biden did 5 points better (15% across three parties) better with Independents and Democrats than Trump did with Independents and Republicans. Assuming Biden won D's 90-5, I's 50-40 (adjusted 33-37.3) and Trump won R's 88-7. Applying the inferred voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 43.9 to Trump 43.7. Biden 43.9, Trump 43.7 Biden +0.2
National Popular Vote
YouGov 10/4-10/6 1384LV, Party distribution not provided; 1500RV, 37D/35I/27R LV 51 RV 46 LV 42; RV 38 Biden +9.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+10 turnout oversamples Dems. Using voter ratios for registered voters because likely voters are not provided. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 89-1, Trump won I's 37-32 and R's 92-2. Applying these ratios to the more likely of 33D/32I/32R, Biden receives 40.3 to Trump 41.6. 40.3 41.6 Trump +1.3
National Popular Vote
Fox News 10/3-10/6 1012LV, 49D/9I/42R 53 43 Biden +10.0
Political Ref's take on the above poll This poll assumes 78% of registered voters will vote (69% in 2016). This turnout is historically high and contradicts our analysis of the fundamentals of turnout as well as the much more comprehensive Gallup poll, as compared to this poll, released last week. Fox likely included many unlikely voters in its poll, the majority of which probably lean Dem, rendering even our adjustment too favorable for Biden. The D+7 turnout likely oversamples Dems, adjusting to D+1, or 46D/9I/45R. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 93-4, I's 42-28 and Trump won R's 92-6. Applying the voter ratios, Biden receives 49.3 and Trump 45.8. 49.3 45.8 Biden +3.5
National Popular Vote
Rasmussen Reports 9/30-10/6 2500LV, Party distribution not provided 52 40 Biden +12.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution or voter ratios are publicly available. Excluded  
National Popular Vote
Ipsos 10/2-10/6 882LV, 47D/10I/41R
 52 40 Biden +12.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+6 sample oversampled Dems. Will adjust to D+1, or 45D/10I/44R. Voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Biden had a 12-point lead with a 6-point partisan advantage, suggesting he did 6 points better (18% across three parties) with Independents and Republicans than Trump did with Independents and Democrats. Assuming Biden won D's 95-1, I's 55-35 and Trump won R's 87-4. Applying these ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 50.0 to Trump 42.2. 50 42.2 Biden +7.8
National Popular Vote
Leger 10/2-10/4 843"LV," 33D/30I/31R 49 40 Biden +9.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll This 843LV sample is drawn from 1001 adults, indicating an assumption of a 84.3% turnout. A registered voter poll filter will be applied to the entire sample. Full explanation below. 48.0 41.0 Biden +7.0
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2020
Pennsylvania President
Emerson College 10/4-10/5 48D/14I/38R Biden 50.1, Trump 45.4 Biden +4.5
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+10 sample oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to 42D/16I/41R. Voter ratios were not provided but can be inferred. Biden had a 10-point partisan advantage and a 4.5 point lead, suggesting Trump did 5.5 points (16.5% across 3 parties) better with Independents and Democrats than Biden did with Independents and Republicans. Will assume Biden won D's 90-8, Trump won I's 50-40 and R's 92-4. Applying these voter ratios to the more likely turnout Biden receives 45.8 to Trump 49.1. Biden 45.8, Trump 49.1 Trump +3.3
New Hampshire President
American Research Group, Inc. 9/25-9/28 600LV, 35D/32I/33R Biden 53, Trump 44 Biden +9.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included  
North Carolina Presidential
Ipsos 9/29-10/6 601LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 47, Trump 47 TIED
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution nor voter ratios of those parties is provided. Excluded  
Michigan Presidential
Ipsos 9/29-10/6 709LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 51, Trump 43 Biden +8.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution nor voter ratios of those parties is provided. Excluded  
Maine 2nd District
Critical Insights 9/28-10/4 234LV Biden 41, Trump 49 Trump +8.0
Political Ref's take on the above poll The is no Ref's Avg in Maine-2 because no exit polls are available.    
Arizona Presidential
HighGround 9/28-10/5 400LV, 34D/29I/37R Biden 46, Trump 45 Biden +1.0
Political Ref's take on the above poll The party distribution looks reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included  
Pennsylvania Presidential
Monmouth Univ 9/30-10/4 500LV, 46D/14I/40R Biden 53, Trump 45 Biden +8.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll D+6 is too high in Pennsylvania, will adjust to D+1, or 42D/16I/41R. Using this sample, Biden leads 54-42 among registered voters. Voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Biden leads by 12 with a partisan advantage of 6, suggesting he did 6 points (18% across 3 parties) better with Republicans and Independents than Trump did with Democrats and Independents. Assuming Biden won D's 93-3, I's 50-38 and Trump won R's 90-6. Applying these ratios to the more likely turnout of 42D/16I/41R, Biden receives 49.5 to Trump 44.2. Biden 49.5, Trump 44.2 Biden +5.3
Florida Presidential
Suffolk Univ 10/1-10/4 500LV, 37D/23I/37R Biden 47, Trump 47 TIED
Political Ref's take on the above poll The sample looks reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included  
National Popular Vote
CNN/SSRS 10/1-10/4 1001"LV," 33D/39I/28R 56 41 Biden +16.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+5 sample oversamples Dems and the I+11 sample greatly oversamples Independents. This poll assumes an impossible turnout of 83%. We have not had that kind of turnout since the Civil War. Typically around 60% of Americans vote. This is a tactic some pollsters will use when they find a particularly favorable result for their preferred candidate among Independents. Will apply a registered voter poll screen to the I column. Will adjust to the much more likely D+1, 33D/32I/32R. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 99-1, I's 56-37 (39-24.3 adjusted) and Trump won R's 94-6. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 47.1 to Trump 38.2. 47.1 38.2 Biden +8.9
MONDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2020
Arizona Senate
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. 9/25-9/28 500LV, 35D/25I/40R Kelly 48, McSally 44 Kelly +4.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Party distribution is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included  
Arizona Senate
Suffolk Univ 9/26-9/30 500LV, 33D/34I/33R Kelly 49, McSally 40 Kelly +9.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The even turnout undersamples Republicans. Adjusting to R+4 28D/40I/32R. According to the poll data, Kelly won D's 99-0, I's 39-36 and McSally won R's 86-9. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Kelly receives 46.2 to McSally 45.5. Kelly 46.2, McSally 45.5 Kelly +0.7
Arizona Senate
ABC/Washington post 9/15-9/20 579LV, 25D/38I/31R Kelly 49, McSally 48 Kelly +1.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Party distribution is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included  
Wisconsin Presidential
Ipsos 9/29-10/5 601LV, Party distribution not available Biden 50, Trump 44 Biden +6.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither party distribution nor voter ratios of those parties is provided. Excluded  
Pennsylvania Presidential
Ipsos 9/29-10/5 605LV, Party distribution not available Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5.0  
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Neither the party distribution or voter ratios are provided. Excluded    
Arizona Presidential
Ipsos 9/11-9/17 565LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 47, Trump 46 Biden +1.0
Political Ref's take on the above poll Neither the party distribution or voter ratios are provided. Excluded  
National Popular Vote
RMG Research 10/1-10/3 763LV, 39D/24I/37R 51 43 Biden +8.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Evidence points to a strong Republican turnout, so I am using RMG's high GOP turnout result. 49 45 Biden +4.0
Georgia Senate
Quinnipiac Univ 9/23-9/27 1125LV, 35D/25I/33R Ossoff 49, Perdue 48 Ossoff +1.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+2 sample includes too many D's, will adjust to 34D/30I/36R. According to the poll data, Ossoff won D's 96-2, I's 53-43 and Perdue won R's 97-2. Applying these voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Ossoff receives 49.3 to Perdue 48.5. Ossoff 49.3, Perdue 48.5 Ossoff +0.8
Georgia Senate
YouGov 9/22-9/25 1164LV, 37D/20I/40R Ossoff 42, Perdue 47 Perdue +5.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included  
Georgia Senate
New York Times/Sienna 9/16-9/21 523LV, 33D/31I/33R Ossoff 38, Perdue 41 Perdue +3.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll *NYT polls are excluded because of failure to report registered voters interviewed unless they go against their bias.* The even turnout is a bit off. Adjusting the turnout to 34D/30I/36R. According to the poll data, Ossoff won D's 83-2, Perdue won I's 36-27 and R's 88-3. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Ossoff receives 37.4 to Perdue 43.2. Ossoff 37.4, Perdue 43.2 Perdue +5.8
Georgia Senate
Monmouth Univ 9/17-9/21 402LV, 34D/28I/37R Ossoff 42, Perdue 50 Perdue +8.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Party distribution is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included  
Ohio Presidential
Trafalgar Group 10/1-10/3 1035LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 40, Trump 44 Trump +4.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll Trafalgar group was tied with Remington Research and Google Consumer Surveys as the most accurate in Ohio in 2016 Included  
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 4, 2020
Minnesota Presidential
Democracy Institute 9/30-10/2 450LV, 46D/15I/39R Biden 44, Trump 46 Trump +2.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The partisan distribution oversamples Dems somewhat, but is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included  
Florida Presidential
Democracy Institute 9/30-10/2 500LV, 37D/27I/35R Biden 48, Trump 44 Trump +4.0
Political Ref's take on the above poll The D+2 sample oversamples Dems, will adjust to R+1, or 32D/34I/33R. Voter ratios were not provided but can be inferred. Biden had a 2-point turnout advantage but trails by 4, meaning Biden did 6 points (18% among 3 party groups) worse among Republicans and Independents than Trump did among Democrats and Independents. Assuming Biden won D's 88-6, Trump won I's 50-38 and R's 92-4. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely party distribution, Biden receives 42.4 to Trump 49.3. Biden 42.4, Trump 49.3 Trump +6.9
New Hampshire Presidential
Democracy Institute 9/30-10/2 400LV, 28D/42I/31R Biden 44, Trump 46 Trump +2.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The R+3 turnout may oversample R's a bit but is a reasonable turnout. No adjustment necessary. Included  
National Popular Vote
Democracy Institute 9/30-10/2 1500LV, 37D/28I/35R 45 46 Trump +1.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+2 sample slightly oversamples Dems, will adjust to D+1, or 33D/32I/32R. Voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Biden had a 2-point turnout advantage and a 1-point deficit, suggesting Trump did 3 points (9%) better with Democrats and Independents than Biden did with Republicans and Independents. Assuming Biden won D's 88-6, Trump won I's 48-42 and R's 91-6. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 44.4 to Trump 46.5. 44.4 46.5 Trump +2.1
Ohio Presidential
YouGov 9/30-10/2 1114LV, 35D/27I/36R Biden 47, Trump 47 Tie
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The R+1 sample includes too many Dems and not enough R's. Adjusting to R+4, or 34D/28I/38R. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 94-3, Trump won I's 46-40 and R's 91-6. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 45.4 and Trump receives 48.5. Biden 45.4, Trump 48.5 Trump +3.1
Pennsylvania Presidential
YouGov 9/30-10/2 1187RV, 41D/20I/38R Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll This poll slightly oversamples Dems, will adjust to D+1, or 42D/16I/41R. See above. Will also apply a registered voter screen to the I column. This is not a likely voter poll although it purports to be. It polled 1202 registered voters and identified 1187 as likely voters. This would be a 99% turnout rate among registered voters, which is nowhere close to accurate. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 90-6, I's 50-40 (33-27.3) and Trump won R's 87-8. After registered voter screen is applied to I's, it adjusts to 33-27.3. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 46.4 to Trump 42.6. Biden 46.4, Trump 42.6 Biden +3.8
National Popular Vote
NBC/WSJ 9/30-10/1 800RV, 45D/13I/36R 53 39 Excluded - See *NOTE*
Political Ref's Take on the above poll *NOTE* This is a deceptive poll. The D+9 sample greatly oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to a D+1 sample, 42D/13I/41R,and apply a registered voter screen to the I column. Voter ratios, or course, are not provided. Biden had a 9-point partisan advantage and a 13-point lead, suggesting he did 4 points (12%) better with Independents and Republicans than Trump did with Independents and Democrats. Assuming Biden won D's 91-3, I's 48-42 and Trump won R's 88-6. Applying a registered voter screen to I's, adjusts to 31-29.3. Applying these voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 44.7 to Trump 41.1 44.7 41.1 Biden +3.6
NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE
Reuters/Ipsos 10/2-10/3 596LV, 48D/8I/44R 51 41 Biden +10.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The D+4 sample oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to 46D/8I/45R. Voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Biden had a 4-point partisan advantage an a 10-point lead, suggesting he did 6 points (18%) better with Independents and Republicans than Trump did with Independents and Democrats. Assuming Biden won D's 94-2, I's 49-40 and Trump won R's 89-6. Applying these ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 49.9 to Trump 44.2. Biden 49.9, Trump 44.2 Biden +5.7
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2020
New Hampshire Presidential
Emerson College 9/30-10/1 700LV, 32D/38I/30R Biden 52, Trump 45 Biden +7.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll The party distribution is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included  
Arizona Presidential
Survey Monkey 6/8-9/30 20,916RV, 43D/8I/48R Biden 48, Trump 50 Trump +2.0
Political Ref's take on the above poll The R+5 turnout may slightly oversample R's, but is a reasonable turnout. Biden won D's 97-2, I's 63-31 and Trump won R's 94-5. No adjustment necessary. Included - This is included because it has a heavily D lean bias relative to the mean that shows an R ahead. A poll going against it's bias is worth including. Also, includes over 20,000 LV for four months, a massive sample reaching deep into the electorate.  
Arizona Presidential
Suffolk Univ 9/26-9/30 500LV, 33D/34I/33R Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4.0
Political Ref's take on the above poll The even turnout includes too many Democrats. Will adjust to R+4, or 28D/40I/32R. Biden won D's 99-1, Trump won I's 46-44 and R's 93-6. Applying these voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 47.2 to Trump 48.5. Biden 47.2, Trump 48.5 Trump +1.3
Michigan Presidential
PPP 9/30-10/1 746RV, 36D/28I/36R Biden 50, Trump 44 Biden +6.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll This a registered voter poll and a registered voter filter will be applied. Adjusted, Biden 48.2 to Trump 45.8. Biden 48.2, Trump 45.8 Biden +2.4
Michigan Presidential
Trafalgar Group 9/26-9/28 1042LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2.0
Political Ref's Take on the above poll This was the most accurate state poll in Michigan last cycle. Included  
National Popular Vote
9/27-9/30 1350LV, Party distribution not provided. 1499RV, 37D/34I/29R Biden 50, Trump 42 Biden +8.0
The D+8 party distribution oversampled Dems. Adjusting to D+1 or 33D/32I/32R. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 89-3, Trump won I's 35-34 and R's 87-3. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely party distribution, Biden receives 41.2 to Trump 40.0. Biden 41.2, Trump 40.0 Biden +1.2
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1, 2020
National Popular Vote
9/23-9/29 3000LV, Party distribution is not provided Biden 51, Trump 43 Biden +8.0
Biden won 84% of D's and Trump won 79% of R's. No other internals were publicly available. Excluded  
National Popular Vote
9/25-9/29 864LV, 42D/12I/39R Biden 51, Trump 42 Biden +9.0
The D+3 party distribution is a bit high, will adjust to D+1, or 42D/9I/41R. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 91-3, I's 50-25 and Trump won R's 89-6. Applying the voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 45.2 to Trump 40.0. Biden 45.2, Trump 40.0 Biden +5.2
Michigan Presidential
9/26-9/28 1042LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2.0
This was the most accurate state poll in Michigan last cycle. Included  
New Hampshire Presidential
9/24-9/28 972LV, 42D/16I/42R Biden 53, Trump 44 Biden +9.0
According to the poll data, Biden won D's 93-6, I's 60-35 and Trump won R's 90-6. Included  
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 2020
National - Who Won the Debate
9/29 1039LV, 39D/28I/33R Biden 48, Trump 41 Biden +7.0
The D+6 sample oversamples Democrats. Will adjust to the more likely D+1 (33D/32R/32R) and D+3 (36D/31I/33R) voter models. Voter ratios were not provided but can be inferred. Biden leads by 7 with a partisan advantage of 6, so he did about 1 point better with Independents and Republicans than Trump did with Independents and Democrats, or 3%. Assuming Biden won D's 90-5, I's 47-46 and Trump won R's 89-6. Results to the right. D+1 Voter Model: Biden 46.7, Trump 44.9 _______ D+3 Voter Model: Biden 49.0, Trump 45.7 D+1 voter model: Biden +1.8 ______ D+3 voter model: Biden +3.3
National - Who Won the Debate
This poll fails to meet basic transparency expectations and standards of fairness. The party distribution is not provided. CNN's own political analyst cautioned that the sample skewed more heavily Democratic. Their results mirrored the favorability ratings of the candidates, 6 in 10 favored Biden compared to 4 in 10 who favored Trump.
Texas Presidential
9/18-9/25 882LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 46, Trump 50 Trump +4.0
According to the poll data, Biden won D's 95-2, I's 43-36 and Trump won R's 93-5. No adjustment necessary. Included  
North Carolina Presidential
9/18-9/25 921LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 47, Trump 47 Even
According to the poll data, Biden won D's 92-4, Trump won I's 42-40 and R's 91-6. No adjustment necessary Included  
New Hampshire Presidential
9/17-9/25 657LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 52, Trump 44 Biden +8.0
According to the poll data, Biden won D's 95-3, I's 50-35 and Trump won R's 90-9. Applying the voter ratios to the likely turnout of 42D/15I/42R, Biden receives 51.2 to Trump 44.3. Biden 51.2, Trump 44.3 Biden +6.9
Arizona Presidential
9/25-9/28 500LV, 35D/25I/40R Biden 47, Trump 47 Even
Party distribution is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included  
Georgia Presidential
9/23-9/27 1125LV, 33R/25I/35D Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3.0
The D+3 sample oversampled Democrats. Will adjust to the more likely R+2, or 34D/30I/36R. This poll is of "self-identified" likely voters, which is to say that no real likely voter screen was applied. A registered voter screen will be applied to the I column to compensate for this incompleteness. According to the poll data, Biden won D's 98-0(estimate), I's 51-41 (34-28.3 adjusted) and Trump won R's 97-3. Applying these voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 44.6 to Trump 43.4. Biden 44.6, Trump 43.4 Biden +1.2
National Popular Vote
9/24-9/26 752LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 51, Trump 45 Biden +6.0
Party distribution is not provided but voter ratios are. Biden won D's 95-4, I's 47-42 and Trump won R's 88-8. No adjustment necessary. Included  
National Popular Vote
9/25-9/27 12,965LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7.0
Neither party distribution or voter ratios are publicly available. Excluded  
Florida Presidential
9/23-9/26 500LV, 39D/20I/38R Biden 46, Trump 43 Biden +3.0
This is a reasonable voter turnout assumption. Included  
Wisconsin Presidential
9/23-9/26 500LV, 32D/32I/34R Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2.0
The party distribution comes close to an even turnout, which is where it should be in Wisconsin. No adjustment necessary. Included  
Pennsylvania Presidential
9/21-9/26 568LV, 39D/21I/34R Biden 54, Trump 45 Biden +9.0
This poll assumes an 81% turnout among all registered voters, a high but realistic number. This number also doesn't suggest that turnout will exceed 2016, when 6.2 million of a possible 7.5 million registered voters showed up to vote in Pennsylvania (83%). So the Post's own likely voter model is hinting that turnout will match 2016 when we saw a D+3 turnout after Republicans have closed the registration gap by 150,000 votes over the last four years, or by 2%. The D+5 sample oversamples Democrats. Adjusting to D+1, or 42D/16I/41R. According to the data, Biden holds a 9-point lead while having a 5-point partisan turnout advantage, suggesting he did 4 points (12%) better with Independents and Republicans than Trump did with Independents and Democrats. Assuming Biden won D's 92-3, I's 48-42 and Trump won R's 88-5. Applying these voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 48.4 to Trump 44.1. Biden 48.4, Trump 44.1 Biden +4.3
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2020
Ohio Presidential
6/8-9/25 11,616RV, 44D/9I/46R Biden 48, Trump 50 Trump +2.0
This R+2 sample is reasonable. No adjustment necessary. Included  
Pennsylvania Presidential
9/25-9/27 711LV, 37D/27I/33R Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9.0
Unlike every other pollster, this pollster fails to tell us how many registered voters it polled to reach 711 likely voters. This is essential information in determining the validity of a poll. Because this poll consistently fails to reveal this information one can only conclude that they are hiding it, which violates the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative standards. I adopt this standard for my averages and will not include polls that violate it. I will include it in the pollster average (not mine) because the point of that average is to track what pollsters are telling America, which is often deceptive. Excluded  
National Popular Vote
9/22-9/24 LV, Party distribution to be provided later in the week Biden 47, Trump 45 Biden +2.0
Full analysis will be provided once full results are released.    
Wisconsin Presidential
9/22-9/24 1189LV, Party distribution not provided Biden 47.7, Trump 44.9 Biden +2.8
Party distribution not provided. Trafalgar group was the most accurate state pollster in 2016. Included  
Nebraska District 2
9/25-9/27 420LV, 33D/28I/35R Biden 48, Trump 41 Biden +7
I have no exit poll data for Nebraska 2nd district, but it is more evenly divided than the rest of the state. The Republican congressional candidate has won the district the last seven times, even in the very tough 2018 year for Republicans. It would be a bit of a surprise if it went for Biden, although Trump only won by 2 there last time. The NYT poll shows the following, Biden won D's 92-4, I's 54-26 and Trump won R's 90-6. It is hard to measure NYT polls because they don't report the number of registered voters the likely voter model was derived from, making it impossible to determine their estimate of registered voter turnout. If they assume a 80-90% turnout among RV, it helps the Democrat, especially in the I column. If they assume a 65-75% RV turnout, it helps the GOP. It is likely they are up in the 90% range, but I can't judge this one. Excluded. Violates the Transparency Initiative of the AAPOR. Excluded  
Nevada Presidential
9/10-9/26 641LV, 37D/23I/34R Biden 46, Trump 41 Biden +5
The party distribution is reasonable. Biden won D's 88-5, I's split 37-36 and Trump won R's 83-13. No adjustment necessary. Included  
National Popular Vote
9/24-9/27 809LV, Biden 50, Trump 45; 809RV, 35D/36I/29R 50 (LV), 50 (RV) Biden +5
The voter turnout assumption for likely voters was not provided. Will use the registered voter model. The D+6 voter turnout assumption oversamples Dems, will adjust to D+1, or 33D/32I/32R. Voter ratios are not provided but can be inferred. Biden had a 6-point partisan turnout advantage and leads by 6, suggesting that Biden performed evenly with Trump among Independents and cross-party. Assuming each candidate won his party 90-5 and I's split 45-45. Applying these voter ratios to the more likely turnout, Biden receives 45.7 to Trump 44.9. 45.7 Biden +0.8
North Carolina Senate
9/18-9/22 705RV, 36D/33I/30R Cunningham 43.1, Tillis 41.8. Cunningham +1.3
The D+6 sample is reasonable, although perhaps a bit heavy on Dems. Included Included  
North Carolina President
9/18-9/22 705RV, 36D/33I/30R Biden 45.7, Trump 45.4 Biden +0.3
The D+6 sample is reasonable, although perhaps a bit heavy on Dems. Included Included  

 

 
         
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