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| POLITICAL REF'S NOTEBOOK |
| What is my super poll? Bottom line, I apply the new polls to the last presidential election exit polls. By giving the new polls the same voter model of the exit poll, you get a much bigger poll and a low margin of error. |
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| Here are the latest super poll updates . . . |
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National Final Super Poll Update
Trump +0.2, 48.2-48.0
Sample: 35,967V
Error: 0.5%
New:
-Atlas: T+1.1, Tie <my take
-TIPP: T+0.5
-Marist: H+4, H+0.7 <my take
-NBC: Tie
-Emerson: Tie
-HarrisX: H+2
-Rasm: T+3
-Cygnal: H+1
-CBS: H+1
-NYT: T+1
-CNN: Tie |
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Pennsylvania Final Super Poll Update
Trump +0.8, 48.8-48.0
Sample: 16,377V
Error: 0.8%
New:
-Atlas: T+0.7
-Emer: T+1
-NYT: TIed
-Trafal: T+1.7
-InsAdv: T+1, T+0.1 <my take
-Muhl: H+2, H+0.6 <my take
-Suff: Tied, T+1.1 <my take
-Ech: T+5
-Marist: H+2, H+2.2 <my take |
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Wisconsin Final Super Poll Update
Trump +0.4
Sample: 10,936V
Error: 0.9%
New:
- Atlas: T+2.2, T+2.5 <my take
- Trafalger: H+1.2
- InsAdv: T+1.3
- Emerson: Tied
- NYT: H+2, H+0.2 <my take
- Marist: H+2, H+1.5 <my take |
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Nevada Final Super Poll Update
Tied, 48.0-48.0
Sample: 5815V
Error: 1.3%
New:
- Atlas: T+3.1
- Emerson: Tied
- NYT: H+3
- NoblePred: H+1
- Rasmussen: T+2
- Trafalgar: H+0.2
- CNN: T+1
- Insider Adv: T+0.2 |
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North Carolina Final Super Poll Update
Trump +1.4, 48.6-47.2
Sample: 11,725V
Error: 0.9%
New:
- Emerson: T+1
- ECU: T+2
- NYT: H+2
- InsAdv: T+2.2
- Atlas: T+3.5
- Rasm: T+3
- Fox: T+1
- Traf: T+3.2
- WRAL: Tied
- UMassLow: T+2
- Marist: T+2 |
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Arizona Final Super Poll Update
Trump +3.4
Sample: 6081V
Error: 1.3%
New:
- Emerson: T+2, T+1.8 <my take
- NYT: T+4
- InsAdv: T+3
- Atlas: T+6.8
- Noble Pred: T+1
- Rasm: T+2
- DataOrb: T+7.8
- CNN: H+1, T+0.1 <my take
- Traf: T+2.1 |
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Georgia Final Super Poll Update
Trump +1.6, 48.6-47.0
Sample: 9602V
Error: 1.0%
New:
- Emerson: T+1
- NYT: Tie, T+0.2 <my take
- InsAdv: T+1, H+0.4 <my take
- Atlas: T+1.8, T+1.0 <my take
- ECU: T+1
- Rasm: T+5
- CNN: T+1, T+2 <my take |
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Michigan Final Super Poll Update
TIED, 47.6-47.6
Sample: 10,073V
Error: 1.0%
New:
- Trafalgar: T+1.2
- InsAdv: Tie
- NYT: Tie, T+0.4<mine
- MNS: H+1
- Atlas: T+1.5, T+2.2<mine
- Ras: H+1, T+1.1<mine
- Echelon: Tie
- Marist: H+3
- Fox: H+2
- WaPo: H+1 |
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Wisconsin Super Poll Update
Trump +0.5, 48.5-48.0
Sample: 10,819V
Error: 1.0%
New Polls:
- Marist: Harris +1.5 <mine
- Atlas Intel: Trump +1.7 <mine
- AmGr/TIPP: Tied
- Rasm: Trump +3
- CNN: Harris +0.2 <mine
- InsAdv: Trump +1
- Marqu: Harris +0.5<mine |
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Nevada Super Poll Update
Trump +0.9, 48.3-47.4
Sample: 5477V
Error: 0.9%
New Polls:
- Emerson: Harris +1
- Rasmussen: Trump +2
- AtlasIntel: Trump +3.6
- Trafalgar: Harris +0.2
- CNN: Trump +1 |
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Pennsylvania Super Poll Update
Trump +0.9, 48.9-48.0
Sample: 14,536V
Error: 0.9%
New Polls:
- Suffolk: Tie, Trump +0.8 <my take
- Echelon Insights: Trump +5
- Marist: Harris +2
- Atlas Intel: Trump +1.0
- WaPo: Harris +1
- Rasmussen: Trump +2 |
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National Super Poll Update
Trump +0.1, 48.1-48.0
Sample: 38,000V
Error: 0.5%
New Polls:
- AtlasIntel: Trump +1.9
- TIPP: Trump +1
- HarrisX: Harris +1
- Cygnal: Harris +1 |
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Pennsylvania Super Poll Thur Update
Trump +0.8, 48.9-48.1
Sample: 12,536V
Error: 0.9%
New Polls:
- AtlasIntel: Trump +1
- Fox News: Trump +1
- Insider Adv: Trump +0.2 <my take
- Quinnipiac: Trump 2
- CBS: Tied |
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North Car Super Poll Thur Update
Trump +1.6, 48.8-47.1
Sample: 17,278 Voters
Error: 0.9%
New Polls:
- Fox News: Trump +1
- AtlasIntel: Trump +0.7 <my take
- Trafalgar: Trump +3.2
- WRAL-TV: Tie - Elon U: Tie |
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National Super Poll Wed Update
Trump +0.2, 48.4-48.2
Sample: 38,000 V
Error: 0.5%
New Polls:
- Rasmussen Track: Trump +2
- TIPP Track: Harris +1 |
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| Michigan Super Poll Wed Update
Trump +0.4, 48.1-47.7
Sample: 8866V
Error: 1.0%
New Polls:
- USA/Suffolk: Trump +0.4
- AtlasIntel: Trump +1.0 (My take, Trump +2.0)
- Insider Adv: Trump +1.0 (My take, Trump +0.4) |
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Wisconsin Super Poll Tues Update
Trump +0.7, 48.6-47.9
Sample: 7148V
Error: 1.3%
New Polls:
- AtlasIntel: Trump +1
- InsiderAdv: Trump +1
- USA Today: Harris +1 (I adjust to Trump +1.4 due to bias). See Poll Bias Score |
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National Super Poll Tues Update
Trump +0.2, 48.4-48.2
Sample: 38,000 V
Error: 0.5%
New Polls:
- AtlasIntel: Trump +2.5
- Rasmussen Track: Trump +2
- TIPP Track: Harris +1 |
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AZ Super Poll Tues Update Trump +2.6, 49.4-46.8
Sample: 9441 V
Error: 1.0%
MY TAKE on New Polls:
- DataOrbital: Trump +7.8
- CNN: Trump +0.1
- Trafalgar Trump +2.1 |
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GEORGIA SUPER POLL - Tuesday Update
TRUMP +1.1, 48.6-47.5
Sample: 12,857 Voters
Margin of Error: 0.8%
New:
Trafalgar: Trump +2.4, 48.3-45.9 |
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National Popular Vote Super Poll - Monday Update 2
Trump +0.2, 48.5-48.3 (First Trump lead)
Sample 37,433 Voters
Margin of Error: 0.5%
New
- TIPP (Tied) 48-48
- Rasmussen Tracking (Trump +1) 48-47
- YouGov poll with a +4 Harris lead was replaced by a CBS/YouGov poll with a +1 Harris lead = Trump lead |
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National Popular Vote Super Poll Monday Update
Trump +0.1, 48.5-48.4 (First Trump lead)
Sample 37,433 Voters
Margin of Error: 0.5%
New
- TIPP (Tied) 48-48
- YouGov poll with a +4 Harris lead was replaced by a CBS/YouGov poll with a +1 Harris lead = Trump lead |
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National Popular Vote Super Poll Sunday, 10/27 Update
- Harris +0.1, 48.4-48.3
Sample: 38,000 Voters
Margin of Error: 0.5%
New:
- CBS/YouGov (Harris +1.0) 50-49, Poll Bias -40 to GOP, insignificant bias.
- - TIPP Track (Tied) 48-48
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GA Super Poll Sat, 10/26 Update
Trump +0.9, 48.5-47.6
Sample: 12,857 Voters
Margin of Error: 0.8%
New:
- Marist (Tied) 49-49, Poll Bias 2, no bias |
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NC Super Poll Sat, 10/26 Update
Trump +1.6, 49.0-47.4
Sample 14,943 Voters
Margin of Error: 0.9%
New:
- Marist (Trump +2) 50-48, Poll Bias 33 to Dems, insignificant bias
- Emerson (Trump +2) 50-48, -30 to GOP, insignificant bias |
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National Super Poll Sat, 10/26 Update
Harris +0.1, 48.3-48.2
Sample : 39,000V
Margin of Error: 0.5%
New:
- Emerson (Tied) - Poll Bias Score = 25 to Dems
- TIPP Track (Tied) 48-48
- Rasmussen Track - Poll Bias Score = 5, no bias |
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Wisconsin Super Poll Sat, 10/26 Update
Trump +0.3, 48.3-48.0
Sample: 6110V
Margin of Error: 1.3%
New: - Emerson (Trump +1) - Poll Bias Score = 21 to GOP, insignificant bias. |
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PA Super Poll Sat, 10/26 Update
Trump +1.2 Harris 47.3, Trump 48.5 Sample Size: 10,166 Voters
Margin of Error: 1.0%
New Polls:
- F&M (Trump +1) - Poll Bias Score = 30 to Dems, insignificant bias.
- Emerson (Trump +1) - Poll Bias Score = -22 to GOP, insignificant bias. |
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Arizona Super Poll Saturday, 10/26 Update
Trump +2.0 Harris 47.4, Trump 49.4 Sample Size: 8353 Voters
Margin of Error: 1.0%
New Polls:
- Marist (Trump +1) - Poll Bias Score = 69 to Dems, definite bias. |
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